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The Future Need for Petroleum Geoscientists Future of Earth Scientists Committee

The Future Need for Petroleum Geoscientists Future of Earth Scientists Committee AAPG House of Delegates Donald W. Lewis. What will the Demand for Petroleum Geoscientists Be to the Year 2020?. Approach

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The Future Need for Petroleum Geoscientists Future of Earth Scientists Committee

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  1. The Future Need for Petroleum Geoscientists Future of Earth Scientists Committee AAPG House of Delegates Donald W. Lewis

  2. What will the Demand for Petroleum Geoscientists Be to the Year 2020? Approach • Add AAPG + SEG membership, eliminate overlap and use only members working in petroleum industry • Project current membership to 2020, assuming retirement at 65 • Relate membership to oil & gas production and project to 2020 • Compare geoscientist demand to supply at current rate of people obtaining geoscience degrees and entering petroleum industry

  3. Estimates of 21st Century World Energy Supplies YEAR Edwards 2001

  4. Estimates of 21st Century United States Energy Supplies Edwards 2001

  5. AAPG + SEG Members in Worldwide Petroleum Industry1978 - 2001 (Overlap Excluded) SEG increase innon-U.S. members SEG AAPG Excludes retired, students, academia, mining, environmental, other and >65Excludes SEG - AAPG overlap

  6. AAPG + SEG Members in U.S. Petroleum Industry1978 - 2001 (Overlap Excluded) SEG AAPG Excludes retired, students, academia, mining, environmental, other and >65Excludes SEG - AAPG overlap

  7. Worldwide AAPG +SEG Membership in 2001

  8. United States AAPG +SEG Membership in 2001

  9. AAPG + SEG Members in Worldwide Petroleum Industry1978 - 2020 (Overlap Excluded) 2001 SEG AAPG Current (2001) members onlyExcludes retired, students, academia, mining, environmental, other and >65Assumes retirement at 65 and excludes SEG - AAPG overlap

  10. AAPG + SEG Members in U.S. Petroleum Industry1978 - 2020 (Overlap Excluded) 2001 SEG AAPG Current (2001) members onlyExcludes retired, students, academia, mining, environmental, other and >65Assumes retirement at 65 and excludes SEG - AAPG overlap

  11. Worldwide Oil & Gas Production andAAPG + SEG Members in Petroleum Industry1978 - 2020 70000 Worldwide O&G Production, MMB/Yr 60000 2001 50000 40000 30000 AAPG + SEG Members in Petroleum Industry 20000 10000 0 78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 2 4 6 8 2010 12 14 16 18 2020

  12. 78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 2 4 6 8 2010 12 14 16 18 2020 U.S. Oil & Gas Production andAAPG + SEG Members in Petroleum Industry1978 - 2020 40000 35000 2001 30000 25000 AAPG + SEG Members in Petroleum Industry 20000 c 15000 U.S. O&G Production, MMB/Yr 10000 5000 0

  13. Worldwide O&G Production per AAPG + SEG Member in Worldwide Petroleum Industry 1978 - 2020 2001 2% / YrIncrease 1% / Yr Increase MMBOE/Year/Member Assumes improvements in technology yield 1 - 2% increase in production/member

  14. U.S. O&G Production per AAPG + SEG Member in U.S. Petroleum Industry 1978 - 2020 2001 2% / Yr Increase Prod/Member 1% / Yr Increase MMBOE/Year/Member Assumes improvements in technology yield 1 - 2% increase in production/member

  15. Worldwide Petroleum Geoscientist Demand Based on AAPG + SEG Membership Only 2001 Worldwide O&G Production, MMB/Yr Geoscientists Needed at 1% GeoscientistsNeeded at 2% GAP Geoscientists Available If 25% of worldwide geoscientists in petroleum industry are members of AAPG or SEG, gap is 4 times larger than shown

  16. Worldwide Petroleum Geoscientist Demand Based on AAPG + SEG Membership Only 2001 Worldwide O&G Production, MMB/Yr Geoscientists Needed at 1% GeoscientistsNeeded at 2% GAP Geoscientists Available If 25% of worldwide geoscientists in petroleum industry are members of AAPG or SEG, gap is 4 times larger than shown

  17. U.S. Petroleum Geoscientist Demand Based on AAPG + SEG Membership Only 2001 Geoscientists Needed at 1% Geoscientists Available GAP GeoscientistsNeeded at 2% U.S. O&G Production, MMB/Yr If 2/3 of U.S. geoscientists in petroleum industry are members of AAPG or SEG, gap is 50% larger than shown

  18. Will the Gap Be Filled? • U.S. Geoscience Graduates Compared to Geoscientists Needed in U.S. Petroleum Industry • Assumes all graduates work on U.S. production, i.e., none work on non-U.S. • “Gap 1%” assumes technology improvement of 1% per year • Gap numbers assume AAPG + SEG members are 2/3 of petroleum geoscientists in U.S. • Assume 2000 level of 4000 U.S. geoscience degrees of which 1250 are MS & PhD. Percentage entering petroleum industry are for 1999 • K&C percentage includes Canada and did not use same categories as AGI study Sources: NSF, AGI (2000), Katz & Claudy (2000) Geoscientist Gap/Year Graduates Entering Petroleum Industry BS + MS + PhD MS + PhD @7.6% (AGI) @14.4% (AGI) @ 23.8% (K&C) 300 180 300 1% 2% 420 210

  19. Will There Be Jobs? • Median age of AAPG and SEG members is in the 46-50 group. As the older half reaches retirement, the need for replacements will increase. • World oil and gas production will equal or exceed today’s level for the next 40 - 60 years. Thousands of geoscientists will be needed to discover and recover these reserves. • U.S. oil and gas production will decline slowly for the next 20 - 40 years and will require a continuing U.S. geoscience work force larger than that remaining after the coming retirements. • Even with geoscience technology continuing to improve at the rate of the last ten years, 200 - 400 new geoscientists per year will be required for the U.S. petroleum industry.

  20. Will There Be Jobs? • Additional new geoscientists will be required in the U.S. working on non-U.S. areas and in other countries working for American companies • Although the number of petroleum geoscientists worldwide is unknown, a conservative estimate is that 2000 - 3500 new geoscientists per year will be required in the petroleum industry (including the U.S.) • The requirement for petroleum geoscientists will last at least as long as a career. YES!

  21. Estimates of 21st Century World Energy Supplies Petroleum Geoscientist Career Opportunities YEAR Edwards 2001

  22. Estimates of 21st Century United States Energy Supplies Petroleum Geoscientist Career Opportunities Edwards 2001

  23. Assumptions Many assumptions are necessary, among which are: • Retirement at age 65 • Technology improvement at same rate as last ten years • Production forecast • In U.S., two-thirds of petroleum geoscientists are AAPG or SEG members

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