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Key points of Russian energy strategy up to 2030 – between Europe and Asia

IES. Key points of Russian energy strategy up to 2030 – between Europe and Asia. Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy Moscow, Russia. The future of the global gas market: an EU-Russian perspective Brainstorming workshop

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Key points of Russian energy strategy up to 2030 – between Europe and Asia

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  1. IES Key points of Russian energy strategy up to 2030 – between Europe and Asia Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy Moscow, Russia The future of the global gas market: an EU-Russian perspective Brainstorming workshop Milan, 30 september – 1 October, 2010

  2. Energy Strategy 2030 in the System of Documents of the Strategic Development Long-term forecast of the development of Russian economy for the years 2009-2030 Conception of the long-term development of the Russian Federation for the year 2020 ES-2030 General scheme of development of the gas industry for the year 2030 General scheme of allocation of power generating facilities for the year 2020 General scheme of development of the oil industry for the year 2030 State program of energy saving Eastern Gas Program Conception of the state program for exploration and exploitation of the continental shelf of the Russian Federation Program of long-term development of the fuel and energy complex of the Russian Far East Strategy of development of the power generation in the Russian Far East Investment programs of energy companies 2

  3. 1ST STAGE 2ND STAGE 3RDSTAGE IES 2020 2022 2013 2015 Share of Energy sector in Economy Overcoming the crisis in the Economy and Energy sector Modernization of Energy sector Increase of power efficiency and energy saving in the Economy and Energy sector Innovative development of Energy sector New oil and gas fields development (Arctic shelf, Eastern Siberia and the Far East) Highly effective use of traditional power resources Switch to the Energy of the Future Growth of national economy and quality of life of the population ENERGY STRATEGY 2030 approved by decree N° 1715-r of the Government of the Russian Federation of 13.11.2009 2009 2030 2

  4. Foreign energy policy and ES-2030 targets:Eastern and Western vectors IES Western Vector (European Market) Eastern Vector (Asian-Pacific Market) Russian Gas Export, 2009 Russian Gas Export, 2030 (projected) • EU market is essential for Russian gas export (75%) • Western Vector accounts for 96% of Russian gas export (EU + other Europe) • Russia seeks for export diversification • Russia promotes eastern vector of energy export 3

  5. Eastern Vector for Russian Energy Policy IES 4

  6. IES EASTERN VECTOR IN ES-2030: NEW SIDES OF “OLD” TASK Road Map of implementation of ES-2030 : Eastern vector task №19«Increase in the share of the Asia-Pacific countries in the structure of the Russian energy export to 16–17%» task №10«Implementation of a complex of program measures for petrochemistry and gas-chemistry development in the Eastern Siberia and Far East» task № 17«Extended reproduction and attraction of human resources for development of new areas of the Eastern Siberia and Far East» Eastern vector Key initiatives in the Russian energy sector: Eastern vector Energy infrastructure: development and diversification ESPO pipeline, Eastern Gas Program, petro- and gas-chemistry development Development of oil and gas complexes in Eastern regions of Russia Sakalin, Yakutia, Magadan, Irkutsk and Krasnoyarsk regions Shelf of the East Arctic, reanimation of the Northern Sea Way Exploitation of the oil and gas potential of the Northern regions of Russia and Arctic shelf Large-scale development of hydro energy and renewables Non-fuel energy Modernization of electric power and heat supply systems in the Region Energy saving 5

  7. IES THE EAST IS A KEY DIRECTION OF DIVERSIFICATION OF THE RUSSIAN EXPORT Forecast of gas export 6

  8. IES KEY PROJECTS IN THE EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE FAR EAST • Eastern Gas Program • Natural gas Export to China • Sakhalin development • LNG Projects in Sakhalin 7

  9. FIRST RESULTS OF ES-2030: CAREFUL OPTIMISM IES 8

  10. Western Vector for Russian Energy Policy IES 9

  11. IES WESTERN VECTOR IN ES-2030: KEY PROJECTS & GOALS task №19Increase the Russian gas export to European market 160 bcm in 2008 120 bcm in 2009 2030 target - 200 bcm task №21Promote the gas pricing system in Europe, including both long-term and spot contracts task № 22-23Bilateral investment in gas projects • Nord Stream (started in April 2010) • South Stream (projected) • Shtokman (projected) 10

  12. DISTURBING RESULTS OF 2009ON EUROPEAN GAS MARKET IES 12% 24% Export to Europe Export (total) Gas production (Russia) Gas production (GAZPROM) Gas production has fallen to level of 2000 Gas export to Europe was reduced to a quarter 11

  13. Long-term export dynamics & reasons Composition of EU gas import Source: EEGA Factors of decrease in export expectations Price situation in 2009 • Europe: • Competition growth (LNG, new pipelines) • Pricing change (spot market vs. long-term contracts) • Renewables & energy efficiency • Geopolitics (Nabucco, anti-Gazprom rules in 3rd Gas Directive etc.) 12

  14. Conclusions IES 9

  15. Export Expectations vs. Reality IES Russian Gas Export forecast up to period 2030 Factors of decrease in export expectations • Europe: • Competition growth • US: • refuse of future Russian LNG (the boom of shale gas production) • Asia-Pacific: • competition growth (Central Asia) 15-20% Russian gas export forecast (high level from ES-2030) Russian gas export forecast (low level from ES-2030) Russian gas export forecast (IES expectations) Risk of decrease in export on 15-20 % 13

  16. Balancing Eastern and Western Vectors:Tasks for Russian Energy Policy From export orientation to the domestic market Cost reduction in Russian natural gas industry Revision of investment projects - Selection of priority projects among declared in ES-2030 - Refusal of a number of ineffective projects-giants (the Southern stream, etc.) Flexibility of gas export policy - Revision of pricing system in long-term contracts of Gazprom - Flexibility increase in mutual relations with Ukraine and Central Asia IES 14

  17. Issues for Russia – EU relationships - EU gas market forecast - EU secure demand for Russian natural gas - The real need for new pipeline project in relation to future demand - The transit problem & politics toward Ukraine & Belarus - 3rg Gas Directive & Regulative issues - Bilateral investment in gas fields, pipelines, and marketing IES 14

  18. Thank you for your attention! IES 15

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