Complexity to Reflexivity: Underlying Logics Used in Science

1. Complexity to Reflexivity: Underlying Logics Used in Science Stuart A. Umpleby The George Washington University Washington, DC www.gwu.edu/~umpleby

2. Four models currently used in science • Linear causality • Circular causality • Complexity or self-organization • Reflexivity

3. 1. Linear causality • The way most dissertations are written • Many statistical techniques, including correlation and regression analysis • Hypotheses can be falsified • Propositions can be assigned a level of statistical significance • The objective is to create descriptions which correspond to observations

4. 2. Circular causality • Essential to any regulatory process – thermostat, automatic assembly line, driving a car, managing an organization • Can be modeled with causal influence diagrams and system dynamics models • Often a psychological variable is involved – perception of, desire for

5. 3. Complexity theory • Primarily a method of computer simulation – cellular automata, “the game of life” • A very general concept – competition among species or corporations, conjectures and refutations in philosophy • Differentiation and selection – creation of new variety, selection of appropriate variety • Explains emergence

6. 4. Reflexivity • Requires operations on two levels – observation and participation • Involves self-reference, hence paradox, hence inconsistency • Violates three informal fallacies – circular arguments, the ad hominem fallacy, the fallacy of accent (two levels)

7. A further explanation of complexity theory

8. Self-organization • What is currently called complexity theory can be seen as an extension of the work on self-organizing systems around 1960 • There are two processes – differentiation or the creation of new variety and selection of appropriate variety • The first is done within an organism or organization; the second is done by the environment

9. Earlier versions of the idea 1 • Adam Smith used the idea in The Wealth of Nations when he described the process of innovation and competition among firms or nations (1776) • Charles Darwin used the idea when describing genetic mutation and selection by the environment (1859) • Karl Popper used the idea in philosophy -- conjectures and refutations (1950s)

10. Self Organizing Systems Organisms Self Organizing System Early Conception Self Organizing System Environment Ashby’s Conception

11. Background on reflexivity theory

12. Observation Self-awareness

13. Reflexivity in a social system

14. Four reflexive theories • Heinz von Foerster: Include the observer in the domain of science (1974) • Vladimir Lefebvre: Reflect on the ethical system one is using (1982) • Donald Schon: Management as reflective practice (1983) • George Soros: Individuals are actors as well as observers of economic and political systems (1987)

15. Von Foerster’s reflexive theory • The observer should be included within the domain of science • A theory of biology should be able to explain the existence of theories of biology • “Reality” is a personal construct • Individuals bear ethical responsibility not only for their actions but also for the world as they perceive it

16. Lefebvre’s reflexive theory • There are two systems of ethical cognition • People are “imprinted” with one or the other ethical system at an early age • One’s first response is always to act in accord with the imprinted ethical system • However, one can learn the other ethical system and act in accord with it, when one realizes that the imprinted system is not working

17. Soros’s reflexive theory • Soros rejects Popper’s conception of “the unity of method,” the idea that all disciplines, including the social sciences, should use the same methods of inquiry as the natural sciences • Soros says in social systems there are two processes – observation and participation • The natural sciences require only observation

18. The informal fallacies 1. Fallacies of presumption which are concerned with errors in thought – circular reasoning, circular causality 2. Fallacies of relevance which raise emotional considerations – the ad hominem fallacy, including the observer 3. Fallacies of ambiguity which involve problems with language – levels of analysis, self-reference

19. Which models are acceptable? 1. Linear causality – the dominant conception of science 2. Circular causality – used in first order cybernetics, but involves circularity 3. Self-organization – Stephen Wolfram’s “new kind of science,” complex systems 4. Reflexivity – second order cybernetics, violates 3 informal fallacies

20. Acceptable and unacceptable models • Models 1 and 3 – linear causality and self-organization – are acceptable. No informal fallacies are involved • Model 2 – circular causality – is suspect. It involves circular reasoning. But it has proven to be useful • Model 4 – reflexivity – violates 3 informal fallacies, so is highly suspect. Scientists shun it, do not take it seriously

21. A decision is required • Should traditions concerning the form of arguments limit the scope of science? • Or, should the subject matter of science be guided by curiosity and the desire to construct explanations of phenomena? • Cyberneticians have chosen to study certain phenomena, even if they need to use unconventional ideas and methods

22. Some definitions • A reflexive phenomenon – a boom and bust cycle, an idea spreads through a population • Reflective practice – think about what one is doing, observe consequences of actions, and make adjustments • Reflexive practice – think about one’s self as a participant in a reflexive phenomenon

23. Describing what is occurring • Reflexive phenomena can be described using positive feedback loops • Managers and policy analysts engage in reflective practice but an epistemology of reflective practice, separate from classical science is not well-developed • Metaphor of taking a photograph vs. metaphor of riding a bicycle • Classical science has constrained our thinking

24. Most philosophers of science Cause and effect If, then Analysis Reductionism Theory E.A. Singer, Jr., Churchman, Ackoff Producer - product Necessary conditions Synthesis Expansionism Method Two conceptions of how to structure knowledge

25. Observation Description Test knowledge Extrapolate/ forecast Reproduce experiments Accuracy/ precision Participation Prescription Solve problems Create/ design Achieve agreement or acceptance Usefulness Science one vs. science two

26. Three changes are needed in economics 1. Economists, and other social scientists, need to accept the uncertainty that accompanies violating the informal fallacies 2. Social scientists need to expand the philosophy of science by including the observer in the domain of science 3. Economists need a model of economic systems which allows participants to be observers and observers to be participants. This is a large step beyond behavioral economics

27. Our conception of science is the obstacle • Practicing managers and social scientists will readily agree that human beings are both observers and participants in social systems • Indeed, they say this idea is “not new” • But this perspective is not permitted by the current conception of science • Our conception of science needs to be expanded in order to encompass social systems

28. Contact information Stuart A. Umpleby Department of Management The George Washington University Washington, DC www.gwu.edu/~umpleby umpleby@gmail.com

29. Presented at the biennial conference of the Washington Academy of Sciences Washington, DC March 27-28, 2010