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Official population estimates and local population trends

Official population estimates and local population trends. Kim Dunstan, Senior Demographer. 65,000 Christchurch residents – or 17 per cent of the city population – had left the city following the February 22 earthquake NZ Herald 14 March 2011. Timaru's population swells 20pc after earthquake

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Official population estimates and local population trends

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  1. Official population estimatesand local population trends Kim Dunstan, Senior Demographer

  2. 65,000 Christchurch residents – or 17 per cent of the city population – had left the city following the February 22 earthquake NZ Herald 14 March 2011 Timaru's population swells 20pc after earthquake Timaru Herald 3 March 2011 Christchurch may lose 4 per cent of its population over the coming year NZ Herald 14 March 2011 Electronic payment figures released by Paymark show that one in seven Christchurch people left town following the devastating February 22 earthquake NZ Herald 15 May 2011

  3. A very mobile population • 4.7 million arrivals into NZ each year • 4.7 million departures from NZ each year • Up to ¼ million visitors from overseas in NZ on any given day • Up to 200,000 NZ residents ‘temporarily’ overseas on any given day • Almost 1 million overseas-born living in NZ • At least 600,000 NZ-born living overseas • Over half of NZ’s population changes address within 5 years • Seasonal and diurnal flows with work, study, leisure and holidays

  4. Resident population concept • Those who usually live in an area • Excludes visitors • Includes residents who are (temporarily) away

  5. Birth and death registrations High coverage Lag between birth and registration Some vague, incomplete and temporary addresses International travel and migration Virtually all movements covered Actual length of stay/absence ≠ intended Some vague, incomplete and temporary addresses Residential building consents Demolitions not well covered No information on onset and extent of inhabitation (eg holiday homes, number of occupants) Established data sources

  6. Electoral enrolments High coverage above age 30 years Excludes people under 18 years and those ineligible to vote Includes some people living overseas Usual address ≠ electoral address School rolls High coverage at compulsory school ages (6–16 years) School location ≠ usual address of student Students from overseas may not be residents Territorial authority (TA) annual consultation Local insight into factors affecting population Generally qualitative Established data sources (continued)

  7. Health service data (PHO enrolments) Covers all ages Stock and flow/transition data available Differential coverage by age/sex/ethnicity Includes some people living overseas Lag between moving and recording change of address Linked employer-employee data (LEED) High coverage above age 20 years Stock and flow/transition data available Includes some people living overseas Usual address ≠ LEED address (eg workplace, PO boxes) Lag between moving and recording change of address Emerging data sourcesHigh potential usefulness

  8. Net migration, Christchurch city

  9. Population changeYear ended June 2011

  10. Release schedule

  11. More information Papers: • Evaluation of alternative data sources forpopulation estimates • Estimating local populations after the 2010/11 Canterbury earthquakes • from www.stats.govt.nz/estimates-projections Feedback/questions: • demography@stats.govt.nz

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