Planning & Economic Analysis II Northern Economic Corridor: Case Study For Economic Analysis

1. Planning & Economic Analysis II Northern Economic Corridor:Case Study For Economic Analysis Session on Planning & Policy Rita Nangia Asian Development Bank The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent.

2. Session Description • The session covers the following topics: • Case study with hands on exercise; and • Analyzing the distribution of costs and benefits of cross-border infrastructure across countries.

3. Basic Information • A 228 kilometer road project in Northern Lao PDR connecting Kunming to Chiang Rai • Lao PDR’s determination to link its economy through road networks • Overall road access in Lao PDR is limited only .03 km per square kilometer • Market access for goods and access for service severely limited

5. Project Rationale • Access was a major problem Source: National Statistics Centre, Lao PDR

6. Project Rationale • Access was a major problem Source: Draft Final Report for Preparing the Northern Economic Corridor for the Lao PDR (2002), ADB

7. Project Rationale • Poverty was a major problem Source: ADB staff estimates and National Statistics Centre, Lao PDR

8. Project Rationale • Poverty was a major problem • 98% of the population belong to ethnic minorities • 16 different ethnic groups • Girls and women most disadvantaged groups • Highest infant and child mortality rate • One out of four children die before age of 1 and three out of 20 fail to live to reach age of 5 • Female literacy only 19% well below national average and below male literacy • Reverse literacy - learning and then losing literacy is common amongst women • More than 80% of population live on subsistence agriculture so high vulnerability to natural shocks • Limited social infrastructure

9. Project Profile • 228 kms sealed, two lane road, widening of existing bridges and building new ones • Total cost $ 90 million with 1/3 financing from PRC and Thailand • ADB to construct 74 kms, the rest distributed between Thailand (85 kms) and PRC (69 kms)

10. Demand Forecasts * LN = Louang Namtha ** VPK = Viangphoukha Source: Draft Final Report for Preparing the Northern Economic Corridor for the Lao PDR (2002), ADB

11. Demand Forecasts • Three types of traffic • Normal traffic (refers to the existing traffic using the Project Road, inclusive of passenger, commodity, and lignite traffic movements.) • Generated traffic (generated traffic refers to the traffic that will be developed in future as a function of the reduced production costs arising from lower transport costs in the subregion.) and • Land-bridge traffic (refers to the regional traffic, largely between Thailand and the Yunnan Province, PRC diverted from other transport modes and new traffic that will be facilitated due to better infrastructure linkages between these two growing economies.) Land-bridge traffic is a term used to distinguish induced from generated traffic and is meant to reflect how the Project Road will serve as a land-bridge between Yunnan Province, PRC, Lao PDR, and Thailand.

12. Demand Forecasts a Growth for initial few years, thereafter it slows down to 7%. Source: Draft Final Report for Preparing the Northern Economic Corridor for the Lao PDR (2002), ADB

13. Project Costs Source: ADB staff estimates

14. Project Costs Source: ADB staff estimates

15. Identification of Economic Costs & Benefits • Investment costs to include • Road construction costs • Resettlement and environment • Social protection plan • Exclude from capital costs • Taxes and transfer payments • Price contingency • Adjustment using standard conversion factor of 0.8 • Benefits for the Lao PDR include • Savings in vehicle operating costs for local traffic • Toll revenue

16. Economic Costs • Project costs consist of construction costs and civil works, project management and supervision, consulting services including the implementation of resettlement, social and environment management plans, physical contingencies, cost of road user charge collection, and routine and periodic maintenance of the project road with and without project. • Civil works cost were derived from the draft feasibility report for the project road.

17. Economic Costs (continued) • The financial costs were converted to economic costs by eliminating the effects of taxes and duties and by adjusting for the price of traded and non-traded cost components. • A standard conversion factor of 0.8 was used to convert the prices of non-traded goods. • Detailed operations and maintenance costs were estimated in economic terms for the without project and with project scenarios.

18. Economic Benefits for Lao PDR • From the improvement in vehicle operating costs for the local traffic • The revenue it derives from higher regional traffic from the road charges. • Benefits accruing to normal traffic were calculated as the difference between total user costs incurred by using the existing unpaved Project Road less total costs incurred with the improved Project Road. • These differences in user costs accrue to the users of the road and maintenance costs were estimated in economic terms for the without project and with project scenarios.

19. Economic Benefits for the Subregion • For the land-bridge traffic, regional savings were estimated for the different types of vehicles for the freight depending on the alternative transport mode. • Without the project, river traffic is growing even though the cost and time of using river are much higher. • Alternative trip costs were estimated to derive savings accruing to freight operators in Thailand and the PRC. • These savings, net of ferry costs and road charges provided the magnitude of savings for regional traffic.

20. Economic Benefits for the Subregion (continued) • For the passenger traffic, vehicle operating cost savings were used as a proxy for 'with" and "without" project cases. • In addition, overall benefits also include savings in inventory costs as a result of savings in time. The trip on the Mekong River takes five 5 days at present. It is estimated that road use will result in savings of inventory costs, especially for high value goods at the rate of $2 per ton.

21. Source: Draft Final Report for Preparing the Northern Economic Corridor for the Lao PDR (2002), ADB

22. ADT – Average Daily Traffic EIRR – Economic Internal Rate of Return Source: ADB staff estimates

23. ADT – Average Daily Traffic Source: ADB staff estimates

24. Key Messages • Cross-border infrastructure projects are any cooperation initiatives between two or more countries to strengthen physical connectivity. • Economic analysis is an important tool to assess the impact of an infrastructure project on the economy. • It is a particularly important tool for cross-border infrastructure because it helps to assess the distribution of costs and benefits between different countries. • Sustainable outcomes of such projects require the fair distribution of costs and benefits between different countries.