Living standards in Liaoning, 1749-1909: Evidence from demographic outcomes

1. Living standards in Liaoning, 1749-1909: Evidence from demographic outcomes —— James Z. Lee & Cameron D. Campbell Presented by: Qi Duan (10828802) Department of Applied Economics Guanghua School of Management Peking University Dec., 2009

2. Issue & Findings The Issue: To checktrends in the standard of livingin Liaoning province in north-east China during the 18th and 19th centuries. Specifically, (1) to test the response of demographic behavior and living standards to the rise in popul-ation density in Liaoning during the 18th and 19th centuries, and, (2) to examine whether and how commercialization in southern Liaoning during the 19th century affected demographic behavior (and living standards) there. The Main Findings: Marital fertility rose, child mortality fell and some men were able to marry much earlier; Fertility became less sensitive to grain prices, suggesting a decline in the vulner-ability of rural populations to economic shocks. Living standards in Liaoning, 1749-1909

3. Conclusion & Contribution Conclusion: The standard of living in Liaoning rose during the 19th century; There might exist variation between and within regions of China in trends in living standards during the 19th century. Contribution: Compared with the existing works, this paper (1) Compared with studies focus on Jiangnan region:Perkins 1969; Elvin 1973; Huang 1990; Li 1998; Pomeranz 2000; North China:Huang 1985; Pomeranz 1993; Southeast China: Faure 1989. (2) Longitudinally, the coverage of this paper (from mid-18th to the beginning og 20th century) is different from (or longer than) Brandt 1989, Faure 1989, Rawski 1989, and Pomeranz 1993; (the end of 19th or the beginning of 20th century) Li 1998 and Pomeranz 2000; (18th century) 2014/11/10 Living standards in Liaoning, 1749-1909 3

4. Related Debates Debate about levels and trends in the standard of living in China during the Qing (1644-1911) dynasty: Malthus’ portrait of China during the late 18th (and may last to 19th) century. Argue for decline living standard /rising mortality /increasing population pressure: Liu 1985; Harrell 1995b; Argue for rising living standard /decline mortality: Pomeranz 2000; Chapter 1; Li 1998; Chapter 2; Lee and Wang 1999. 2014/11/10 Living standards in Liaoning, 1749-1909 4

5. Data & Approach To use demographic rates (rather than per capita production or consumption) as indices of the standard of living; and focus on trends in demographic rates and the sensitivity of rates to short-term economic fluctuations. Levels of male marriage should also have reflected the standard of living. (Lee and Campbell 1997) Marital fertility should also have been sensitive to the standard of living. (Lee and Wang 1999) The underlying story: See Bengtsson, Campbell, Lee et al. (2004); Lee (1981); Bengtsson and Ohlsson (1985); Galloway (1988); Lee (1990); Bengtsson (1993). 2014/11/10 Living standards in Liaoning, 1749-1909 5

6. Source of Data To use demographic rates (rather than per capita production or consumption) as indices of the standard of living; and focus on trends in demographic rates and the sensitivity of rates to short-term economic fluctuations. The household register data: (more than 750000 obs of over 100000 individuals) “Household and Population Registers of the Eight Banner Han Chinese Army” (汉军八旗人丁户口册). The proxy for the economic conditions: (1,500 monthly reports of crops’ prices) Empire-wide system to monitor food conditions. (from late 1600’s on) 2014/11/10 Living standards in Liaoning, 1749-1909 6

7. ——So in the authors’ points of view, what are the signs of a decline living standards? Rising mortality Delayed marriage Reduced fertility Increased sensitivity to short-term economic stress 2014/11/10 Living standards in Liaoning, 1749-1909 7

8. Descriptive Statistics (figure 16.2) Fluctuations of sorghum prices 2014/11/10 Living standards in Liaoning, 1749-1909 8

9. Descriptive Statistics (table 16.2) TMFR % of men ever married Life expectation (16-50) (6-15) (16-25) (36-35) (36-50) males(1) males(16) females(16) North 1.86 4.4 47.1 80.3 88.6 45.9 43.0 41.2 Dami 1.35 5.1 39.9 70.5 80.0 46.7 40.5 38.8 Feicheng 1.81 3.0 41.1 78.9 88.9 43.1 44.3 40.7 YimianchengDadianzi 1.97 6.4 56.9 85.3 92.1 51.1 44.2 47.4 Bakeshu 1.89 2.9 44.6 80.4 88.5 44.7 40.4 36.0 Central 1.99 2.2 41.3 74.4 84.1 41.2 43.0 38.5 Guosantun 2.14 2.6 40.9 74.4 84.4 42.8 43.9 37.1 Daxingtun 1.91 2.0 41.6 74.5 84.0 39.5 42.2 40.2 Daoyi 1.94 2.8 42.2 75.0 83.3 38.3 41.8 38.3 South 1.89 3.8 42.2 75.0 86.5 49.9 44.6 43.9 GaizhouRending 1.89 4.9 46.9 76.6 87.1 52.0 44.6 45.6 GaizhouMianding 2.02 3.1 49.2 81.0 89.5 48.7 41.8 40.8 NiuzhuangLiuerbao 1.96 3.5 47.1 78.6 86.0 48.1 45.4 43.2 GaizhouManhan 1.72 5.0 46.9 76.6 87.1 49.0 47.1 43.4 Total 1.90 3.5 45.3 77.7 86.5 44.1 43.0 41.7 2014/11/10 Living standards in Liaoning, 1749-1909 9

10. Overall trend: Fertility (figure 16.3) 2014/11/10 Living standards in Liaoning, 1749-1909 10

11. Regression Results: Fertility (table 16.3) An event-history analysis: 2014/11/10 Living standards in Liaoning, 1749-1909 11

12. Overall trend: Nuptiality (figure 16.4) 2014/11/10 Living standards in Liaoning, 1749-1909 12

13. Regression Results: Nuptiality (table 16.4) 2014/11/10 Living standards in Liaoning, 1749-1909 13

14. Overall trend: Mortality (figure 16.5) 2014/11/10 Living standards in Liaoning, 1749-1909 14

15. Overall trend: Mortality (figure 16.6) 2014/11/10 Living standards in Liaoning, 1749-1909 15

16. Regression Results: Mortality (table 16.5) 2014/11/10 Living standards in Liaoning, 1749-1909 16

17. Regression Results: Mortality (table 16.5) 2014/11/10 Living standards in Liaoning, 1749-1909 17

18. Regression Results: Mortality (table 16.5) 2014/11/10 Living standards in Liaoning, 1749-1909 18

19. Interpretations/Implications The different situations in the north and south Liaoning (improved or at least not declined) from those in the central part (stagnated or even declined), if true, means what? Or, what makes the overall picture of Liaoning look so different from that painted for China as a whole? (both of the same period) They might be linked to their economic contexts: Far away from Vs Close to the administrative center Sparsely Vs Densely populated Access to coast / ports / trade Methodologically, this paper confirms the utility of examining demographic outcomes to help reconstruct trends in living standards in the past, especially in situations where more direct measures are absent. 2014/11/10 Living standards in Liaoning, 1749-1909 19

20. Open Questions As the authors admit, the decline in male child mortality in northern and southern Liaoning may deserve a further investigation… Why the “critical year” is 1834? The authors state that their “primary substantive interest is in the response of demographic behavior and living standards to the rise in population density in Liaoning during the 18th and 19th centuries”, which seems questionable… To investigate northeast and Jiangnan (and other possible districts of China) simultaneously in a same framework… 2014/11/10 Living standards in Liaoning, 1749-1909 20

21. That’s all, Thanks !