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Modeling Ecological Performance Indicators for the Lake Ontario/St. Lawrence River

Modeling Ecological Performance Indicators for the Lake Ontario/St. Lawrence River Water Levels Study. Project Objectives – Phase 1. Form a modeling team to build an ecological response model for analysis of potential flow regulation plans in the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River system

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Modeling Ecological Performance Indicators for the Lake Ontario/St. Lawrence River

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  1. Modeling Ecological Performance Indicators for the Lake Ontario/St. Lawrence River Water Levels Study

  2. Project Objectives – Phase 1 • Form a modeling team to build an ecological response model for analysis of potential flow regulation plans in the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River system • Develop Conceptual Framework for the LOSL Ecosystem Model • Develop and vet a simple prototype LOSL Ecosystem Model • Prepare a Plan for LOSL Ecosystem Model development and application

  3. Tasks for Phase 1 • Form LOSL ecosystem modeling team • LTI, IWR, ETWG chair, selected experts • Modeling team will develop a draft conceptual model • Conceptual Model will include: • Select Performance Indicators to include in model framework; • Define Measure/s of each Performance Indicator (e.g., population dynamics and growth of smallmouth bass); • Determine stressors and processes affecting each Measure of each Performance Indicator; • Develop kinetic structure of conceptual model (i.e., box-and-arrow diagram). • This task will utilize: • Literature review • Site-specific research • Expertise of modeling team

  4. Tasks for Phase 1 (con’t) • Develop a simple prototype (mock) model to demonstrate the utility of the full conceptual model. • Vet the prototype model to key members of the ETWG • Acquire additional knowledge base • Revise prototype model

  5. Tasks for Phase 1 (con’t) • Develop Design Criteria for LOSL Ecological Model • Consider linkages with H&H and coastal models and Shared Vision Model • Consider model flexibility and ease of refinement • Consider visualization capabilities • Develop configuration of model to the LOSL system, including selection of temporal and spatial resolution and representation of wetlands and other key habitats in the model • Other design criteria in consultation with EWTG and Study Group

  6. Tasks for Phase 1 (con’t) • Hold workshop to demonstrate conceptual model, prototype model and design criteria to ETWG, Study Group, and other key stakeholders. • Workshop in early September • Get feedback during workshop and incorporate into conceptual model and design criteria

  7. Tasks for Phase 1 (con’t) • Prepare Ecosystem Model development and application plan. Include: • Conceptualization and assumptions • Code language and structure • Input/output design • Calibration strategy • Application approach and linkage with Shared Vision Model

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