Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard: Software Designed for Success

1. Sherpa, MAP, Predictive Analytics and Dashboard: Software Designed for Success Dr. Bob Bramucci, Vice Chancellor, Technology and Learning Services Jim Gaston, District Director of IT – Academic Systems

2. About Us • About the SOCCCD • Two-college district in southern California • Approximately 41,000 students (23,000 FTES) • Two Colleges, Three Campuses • Saddleback College in Mission Viejo • Irvine Valley College in Irvine • Advanced Technology and Education Park (ATEP) in Tustin

3. SOCCCD Student Success Systems MAP Sherpa Student Dashboard Predictive Analytics

4. The Problem

6. The Planets Align…

11. Progress So Far

12. Technology & Productivity

13. Moore’s Law

14. Computer Prices

15. Communications Speed

16. Search Time

17. Computers often exhibit Exponential rather than Arithmetic efficiencies

18. Disinvestment by States

19. We Can’t Get There Alone • 80-90% spent on salaries + benefits in K-12 and postsecondary education limit options (we can’t realistically double the number of people) • Declining state investment • Economic history shows that technology often produces exponential changes • Is increased automation the answer?

20. SOCCCD’s SECRETS • It’s not just what we created (an integrated suite of student success software applications) • It’s How We Built It.

21. SOCCCD’s Secrets • Student-Centered Design • Agile Software Development Methods • Inclusive • Flexible • Human-Centered Allocation of Function

22. Student-Centered Design

23. Agile Software Development

24. Allocation of Function Vs.

25. Fitts’ List HUMANS • Complex pattern recognition and generalization • Judgment under uncertainty MACHINES • Rote calculation • Routine, repetitive, precise movements

26. Human-Centered Allocation of Function • We believe that simply replacing people with machines is NOT the best answer • Rather, we can allocate functions between humans and machines in a strategic way that allows people to leverage their unique human strengths--a “human-centered design” approach

27. SOCCCD Student Success Systems MAP Sherpa Student Dashboard Predictive Analytics

28. My Academic Plan (MAP)

29. MAP Project Goals • Create a system that provides: • Self-service guide for students to develop academic plans • Tracking system for counselors and students to monitor progress toward goals • Automated assistance to help students select classes that achieve their goals • Integration with Project ASSIST to reduce data maintenance and increase accuracy

30. Process • Design Team • Counselors • Students • Articulation Staff • Timeline • Discussions began in late 2004 • Development began in Fall 2005 • MAP went online on April 27, 2007 • Technology • Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) • Integration with Project ASSIST

31. Usage Statistics - Plans Created From: 4/27/07 to 4/7/14

32. MAP Demonstration

33. Sherpa

34. Sherpa So what is Sherpa? Sherpa is a recommendation engine that guides students to make informed decisions regarding courses, services, tasks and information.

35. Sherpa Architecture Timing Event Trigger Courses Services Information Tasks Transcript GPA Ed Goal Reg Activity Current Classes Status Recommendations Student Profile Nudge Feedback - Preferences Feedback - Ratings Portal News Feed Email Text To-Do List Mobile

36. Let’s translate this into the real world… Profile Nudge Here is some advice for you… ?

37. What makes a nudge, a nudge? Timely Personal Relevant Actionable

38. Recommendation Examples

39. Phased Approach • Phase One – Closed Class Assistance • Assists students in finding a replacement class during registration • Phase Two – Profiles and Nudges • Announcements, Email, SMS, Voice-To-Text • Phase Three – Portal Refresh • Calendar, To-Do List and News Feed • Phase Four – Mobile • In beta release • Phase Five – Predictive Analytics • In development • Phase Six – Student Success Dashboard • In planning phase now

40. Some Promising Early Results Closed Class Assistant: Has directly resulted in over 20,000enrollments since October 2010. • Matriculation Pilot: • Probation numbers dropped 39% one month after Sherpa notification.

41. Results: More Engagement Yesterday I gave an IVC “Freshman Advantage” presentation to almost 100 high school Seniors at Segerstrom High school. I have been giving these presentations for years. I cannot BEGIN to tell you the positive difference in the student’s behavior due to the Sherpa nudge. It is like they had been touched by an electrified cattle prod in a GREAT way! Students were literally crowded around me before the presentation SHOWING me the Freshman Advantage email message on their smart phone!!! They had a higher level of awareness, a feeling of more urgency to complete matriculation and a better understanding of the process. - Irvine Valley College Outreach Specialist

42. Sherpa Demonstration

43. Predictive Analytics

44. Uses • Early Alert • Course Recommendation • Adaptive Learning

45. Machine Learning • Decision trees • Neural networks • Bayesian networks • Learning Automata • Support Vector Machines

46. Three Math Models • Global: is student predicted to fail any of his/her courses? • Specific: A,B,C,D,F grade prediction for any particular class a student might take • Regression Model

47. Data Scientists

48. Problem Structure • Millions of movies—but you’ll only view a small subset • Thousands of courses—but the average student will only take a small subset

49. Matrix FactorizationModel

50. Student Success Dashboard