Clean Renewable Energy Technologies

1. Clean Renewable Energy Technologies Tom Key EPRI Technical Lead Renewable and Distributed Resources tkey@epri.com 865-218-8082 Prepared for: APPA Workshop on CREBs and REPI February 9, 2006

2. Recent Push toward Renewable Energy • Increasing oil, gas, and coal prices. • Extreme weather has increases debate about link between buildup of greenhouse gases and storms. • Energy Policy Act extends tax credits (PTCs) for clean energy, provides 30% Investment credit for Solar thru 2007. • RPS’s in 22 States plus Washington DC, more on the way…some standards also address CHP, energy efficiency, and waste fuels. • Potential for future carbon caps and and/or taxes. Increasing need to develop balanced and sustainable generation portfolio Hurricane Katrina

3. Summary • What is “Clean Renewable” • Technical Criterion • Political Criterion • Federal Policy Treatment • States RPS Treatment • Where do we expect to go with Clean and Renewable Technologies

4. Fuels use for US Electric Energy Generated(from EIA-2003) Capacity MW Energy MWH Capacity Pie Shows our Preference to Build but not to Operate

5. Technically speaking, exactly what energy resources are renewable? • Used for many years, by all of us, "renewable" is not a clearly defined term and it can be somewhat misleading, when applied to energy. • Given that energy is always conserved according to the first law.... Energy is not renewable in any literal terms. • Never-the-less it is true that day to day sunlight, geo-thermal, and tides are expected to just keep on coming. • this is because they are based on very large energy resources rather than a renewable one.

6. Some Technical Criterion for what we want • limited to the forms of energy that are so large we can't imagine or calculate when they might be depleted…..including fundamental energy sources of solar, earth geothermal and tides (driven by gravitation forces).   • Note that derivatives of solar..... hydro, run of river, biomass, wind, wave, and ocean thermal.... also qualify for this criterion.    • And, recognize that these resources are limited by the need to find suitable locations to harvest the energy....which can be a significant issue, as in the case of conventional hydro-electric.  

7. More Technical Criterion for what we want • Energy resources with low emissions, including CO2 and other Green House Gasses, and over the life cycle • Sustainability  and a small contribution to climate change are also criteria • Sustainable is more or less analogous with a large and clean energy resource.   • Resources such as municipal solid waste, waste-to-energy, landfill gas, wood, and farm wastes....all are derived from biomass/solar and fit on the fringe of our renewable definition, especially when we include significant recycling with MSW, which supports concerns for climate change.  

8. An Energy Budget Model for the Globefrom Prof. Dean Patterson, Univ of NE

10. The Second Law "The total entropy of a closed system increases over time."  Examples: • We burn coal, stored energy is turned into heat and dissipated • We operate a hydro-electric facility, water at higher level drops to lower level. • We generate electricity in a nuclear facility and the reaction uses up nuclear fuel and results in creating heat….and so on. ……You can’t win, you can’t break even and you can’t get out of the game…..

11. Electric Energy from Renewable Resources2003 total was ~ 360B kW-Hs Biomass Breakdown

12. Political Criterion • Depends on Region • Demographics • Availability of Renewable Resources • Public Opinion • Political Objectives • Other Political Forces

13. Eight Task Forces Reports: • Advanced Coal • Biomass • Energy Efficiency • Geothermal • Solar • Transmission • Wind • Quantitative • Two White Papers: • Combined Heat and Power • Hydropower and Ocean Energy http://www.westgov.org/wga/initiatives/cdeac/index.htm

14. Energy Tax Incentives Act of July 2005 and Treasury Department Notice 2005-98, Dec 2005* Qualifying Facilities • Wind Facilities • Geothermal or Solar Energy Facilities • Open-Loop and Closed-Loop Biomass Facilities • Landfill Gas Facilities • Small Irrigation Power Facilities • Refined Coal Production Facilities • Trash Combustion Facilities • Qualified Hydropower Facilities * Form Orrick Memo to APPA, 12/15/2005

15. Technologies in State RPS(23 states, ~1-20% by 2020) From http://www.dsireusa.org/

16. Renewable Energy Technologies Solar Thermal Green Buildings Solar Photovoltaic Ocean Energy Biomass Wind

17. EIA Fuels for Electricity - History and Forecast (1999…something wrong with this forecast?)

18. Most Important & Uncertain Drivers Evolution of Primary Fuel Markets High Gas Prices Low Gas Prices Changes in Societal Values Regarding Global Climate Changes High Prices for CO2 (Public Perception that global climate change is a high priority) Low Prices for CO2 (Public Perception that global climate change is a low priority)

19. Increasing Slightly Aging and Stressed Declining Proliferating Domestic Gas Supply Uranium Prices T&D Infrastructure Renewable Portfolio Standards Continued Tightening Continued Monopolies Abundant Impact on Commodities China & India Coal Supply Environmental Regulation Local Distribution Current Situation

20. Scenario will determine our Energy Future Biting the Bullet Double Whammy Supply to the Rescue Digging in Our Heels

21. New Generation based on recent events and best estimate on levelized energy cost

22. The Promise of Renewable Energy An Important Option consideringCustomer preference, public policy, environmental concerns, and technological progress are converging to make renewables an essential energy resource. EPRI carries the responsibility to look for technological solutions that can meet future energy needs while protecting the environment, even if they are still beyond today’s economic horizon. NREL