Climate Change and Energy Policy in a post-Fukushima world: WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD?

1. Climate Change and Energy Policy in a post-Fukushima world: WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD? Reflections of an Environmental and Health and Safety Lawyer Teresa Hitchcock, Partner

2. Reflections of an Environmental & Health & Safety Lawyer (1) My background • An Environmental and Health and Safety Lawyer, not an expert in energy policy • Strong interests in promoting sustainable development 41626477.1

3. Reflections of an Environmental & Health & Safety Lawyer (2) Propose to offer some perspectives on: • Fukushima as a man-made disaster in the context of a much greater natural disaster • How our respective societies in Japan and the UK differ and implications for reacting to disasters • How this relates to future energy policy • How lessons can be learned that may benefit global energy policy and the need to meet the challenges of climate change 41626477.1

4. Perspectives on the Fukushima releases (1) • The incident was a significant nuclear incident resulting from a major natural disaster • Damage from the nuclear releases dwarfed by the greater natural disaster resulting from the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami • This caused 15,854 deaths, 26,992 injured and 3,155 people missing, with devastating impacts on property and infrastructure 41626477.1

5. Perspectives on the Fukushima releases (2) • UK not exposed to risk of natural disasters on the same scale as Japan, but by no means immune • UK area has suffered from tsunamis and storm surges in the past (eg the Storegga landslides and tsunamis, and the East Coast Great Storm of 1953) • Potential risk of significant natural disaster exists (eg potential Canary Islands landslide and megatsunami) • UK not as well placed to react as Japan 41626477.1

6. Perspectives on the Fukushima releases (3) • The Big Flood of 1953 estimated as only 1 in 500 year event • In consequence Thames Barrier built, which is designed against a 1 in 1000 year event • However downstream and elsewhere on the coast defences often only meet a 1 in 200 year event or less • The assessment of the scale of events is based on extrapolations from quantified data over a very limited period 41626477.1

7. Perspectives on the Fukushima releases (4) • Our societies in the UK and Japan differ • Traditionally Japanese society is very disciplined and deferential • Also not a litigious society (per capita population of practising lawyers a fraction of that in the UK) • This may have been a contributory factor in the regulatory background to the Fukushima releases • In the past the UK also a very disciplined society but this has changed • Our society now very litigious and lacks confidence in politicians and regulators 41626477.1

8. What does this mean for energy policy? (1) • Fukushima has had a negative effect on nuclear programmes • Germany has accelerated its withdrawal from nuclear power • Belgium is considering phasing out its plants earlier than expected • President Hollande has promised to cut the nuclear share of France's energy portfolio form 75% of electricity produced to 50% • This is bad news for energy policy, in terms of reducing availability of a source of abundant low-carbon electricity 41626477.1

9. What does this mean for energy policy? (2) • The UK is committed to a mixed and balanced energy portfolio • 2011 Annual Energy Statement • Electricity supply "From a diverse mix of sources…….including nuclear" • Main sticking point in the UK appears to be financial 41626477.1

10. What does this mean for energy policy? (3) • The reality is that we all need some nuclear capacity as part of a balanced energy portfolio • No energy technology is completely safe • Nuclear energy is relatively safe, and many of the dangers are not inherent to the technology but are attributable to human failings 41626477.1

11. What does this mean for energy policy? (4) • Reality is that the expanding BRIC economics are going to turn to nuclear power to produce at least part of the portfolio to meet their energy demands • It is therefore in the interest of developed countries like the UK and Japan to get in on the act and encourage the development of safe nuclear technologies 41626477.1

12. The way forward (1) • 10 April 2012, UK & Japan agreed on a framework on Civil Nuclear co-operation • Allows UK companies to be involved in de-commissioning opportunities in Japan • Promotes co-operative in the field of nuclear energy • Promotes collaboration on nuclear safety and the sharing of expertise on regulation • Institutes Annual Dialogue 41626477.1

13. The way forward (2) • What can the parties bring to the table? • Common expertise in nuclear technology • Complementary cultures: • The UK can learn from Japanese social organisation in relation to civil protection • A more open and transparent regulatory system can help promote a safety nuclear industry 41626477.1

14. Climate Change and Energy Policy in a post-Fukushima world: WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD? Reflections of an Environmental and Health and Safety Lawyer Teresa Hitchcock, Partner