Public Opinion and Political Socialization: Shaping the People’s Voice

1. Public Opinion and Political Socialization: Shaping the People’s Voice Chapter 6

2. V. O. Key, Jr. To speak with precision of public opinion is a task not unlike coming to grips with the Holy Ghost.

3. Political Socialization:The Origins of Americans’ Opinions • Public opinion: opinions of citizens that are openly stated • The Measurement of Public Opinion • Public Opinion- the opinions of private individuals become public when they are expressed publicly • Facial expression • Voting • Letters to the editor • Lobbyist activities • Public protests or demonstrations • Yard signs/ bumper stickers

4. As a concept or force in American politics, public opinion is elusive, powerful, inexact and contradictory

5. Political Socialization:The Origins of Americans’ Opinions • How Informed Is Public Opinion? • In comparison to Europeans, Americans’ awareness of public affairs is lower • Who first said “a government of the people, by the people, for the people?” • Abraham Lincoln- ¾ of Ivy League students surveyed missed this question • Civic Literacy Test- Avg. college senior scored an “F” • Political culture: the characteristic and deep-seated beliefs of a particular people about government and politics

6. Political Socialization:The Origins of Americans’ Opinions • Political socialization process • Political Socialization- the process by which individuals acquire their opinions • Childhood learning is paramount • Process is cumulative: political affiliations usually grow firmer with age

7. Political Socialization:The Origins of Americans’ Opinions • Primary political socialization agents • Family • Family is the strongest of all agents of socialization • Schools • Church • Scholars have not studied the effects of religion as well as schools or family, but it is a powerful influence • most evident in social policy issues i.e. abortion, school prayer, etc.

8. Influence of Religion

9. Political Socialization:The Origins of Americans’ Opinions • Secondary political socialization agents • Peers • Media • Political Institutions and Leaders

10. Frames of Reference: How Americans Think Politically • Frames of reference: reference points by which individuals evaluate issues and developments • Party identification • Party identification: emotional loyalty to a political party; not formal membership • Americans = 1/3 Dem +1/3 Ind. +1/3 GOP • Party loyalties are not as stable as once was thought • Partisanship based on economic circumstances and policy traditions • Affirmative Action- Dems. • Less Gun Control- Repubs. • Major shifts in loyalty rare and in younger adults • Partisanship can lead to selective perception

11. Partisanship and Issue Opinions

12. Party Differences

13. Frames of Reference: How Americans Think Politically • Ideological Thinking: The Outlook for Some • Ideology • Consistent pattern of opinion on particular issues from a basic underlying belief • Only a minority truly understand and apply ideological frames of reference • Liberals • For gov. intervention in economics; opposed to intervention in social sphere • Conservatives • Opposed to gov. intervention in economics; for intervention in social sphere • Libertarians • Opposed to gov. intervention in economic & social spheres • Populists • For gov. intervention in economic & social spheres

14. Frames of Reference: How Americans Think Politically • Group Thinking: The Outlook of Many- people rely on groups to which they belong as reference points for opinions • Religion • Economic Class • Region • Race and Ethnicity • Gender • Generations and Age • Crosscutting Cleavages

15. Gender and the Iraq Conflict

16. The Measurement of Public Opinion • The measurement of public opinion • Traditional method: election results • Public opinion polls: primary method • Measure public opinion using randomly chosen population sample(s) and carefully constructed interviews • Elected officials frequently respond to polls based on random samples of constituents • Gallup- predicted every POTUS election winner since 1936 (except 1948)Dewy- Truman • Most large news organizations have their own in-house polls • Samples—estimation of population’s views • Accuracy of a poll—expressed by sampling error • A poll of 1000 people would have a sampling error of +/- 3%

17. The Measurement of Public Opinion • Problems with polls • Most relied upon way to measure public opinion, however: • Polls can be erroneous at times- 1948- Dewy- Truman • Other problems • Unrepresentative samples • Increasing refusal to participate in telephone polls • Polled individuals unfamiliar with issues • Poorly trained interviewers • Dishonesty by respondents • Poorly worded questions and poor question order • Non-opinions

18. The Influence of Public Opinion on Policy • Disagreement over how much public opinion affects policy, and how much it should affect policy • People’s view should prevail. • Some counter that elite opinion prevails. • Limits on public influence • Inconsistencies in citizens’ policy preferences • Citizens’ lack of understanding of issues • Mastery of issues not necessary for opinion to be of value, but some issues require understanding

19. The Influence of Public Opinion on Policy • Public opinion and the boundaries of action • Some policy actions outside boundaries of public acceptability • Greater the level of public involvement, the more likely officials will respond to public sentiment • Even on popular issues, leaders have some discretion • Leaders can influence public opinion through concerted effort