How Welfare and Employment Policies Affect Children

1. How Welfare and Employment Policies Affect Children Beth Clark-Kauffman Greg J. Duncan Northwestern University Pamela Morris MDRC

2. The Next Generation Project www.mdrc.org/NextGeneration • Participating researchers from: MDRC University of Texas at Austin Northwestern University University of California at Los Angeles University of Oregan University of Michigan New York University Syracuse University Social Research and Demonstration Corporation • Funders: The David and Lucile Packard Foundation William T. Grant Foundation John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation

3. Question: • Do work-promoting welfare policies help or hurt poor children’s school achievement? Method: • Pool data on ~30,000 children whose families were enrolled in 7 random-assignment experiments

4. Welfare Reform and Child Well-Being Changes in Child Resources and Context Parenting; gatekeeping Cognitive stimulation inside and outside the home Maternal mental health Welfare Reform Provisions Work mandates and incentives Sanctions Time limits Changes in Adult Behavior Employment Welfare Receipt Total Family Income Changes in Child Well-being

5. Effects of welfare reform policies on children may differ by child age or stage • Sensitivity to change • Early childhood • Transitions in development • BUT, also differences in family demography

6. Turn to experiments of 1990s: • Various “treatments” • Mandated Employment Services • Work or Education • Generous Earnings supplements • Time limits • Random Assignment • Follow-up after 2-3 and, in some cases, 5 years

7. In contrast with recent work with these data, we: • Pool microdata rather than working with study-specific impact estimates • Allows us to test effects for smaller groups of children • Add more studies and longer-run follow-ups from existing studies • To understand generalizability of effects

8. Experiments

9. Experiments (continued)

10. Sample Sizes

11. Regression analyses • Dependent variable: • Achievement • Parent Earnings and Income • Independent variables: • Experimental status x age • Age • Source of achievement report • Study dummies • Baseline earnings, AFDC, maternal education, family structure, race/ethnicity, etc.

12. Experimental Impacts on Achievementstandard deviation units) *p<.10 **p<.05 ***p<.01

13. Effects are robust to model specification changes such as: • Adding interactions between experimental indicator and: • Parent and family characteristics • Follow-up length • Source of achievement report • Including only the subset of studies that include all age groups • Clustering at various levels • Including only one achievement score or point in time per child

14. Summary: • Welfare reforms targeted to parents CAN affect their children • Program design matters • Policies that increase income bring benefits to younger children • Child age matters • Welfare reform policies that increase employment can benefit younger children • Transitions in and out of middle childhood: sensitive periods

15. Greg Duncan greg-duncan@northwestern.edu

16. Gayle and her daughter Gayle, a single mother of one adolescent-aged daughter, Susan, noted that Susan was having several problems in school. Skipping school had become a big problem. Normally getting C’s or better, Susan was now getting D’s and F’s. Gayle knew her daughter was skipping school, and she was sure it had been going on frequently. However, partly because Gayle had been working she didn’t know exactly how much school Susan had missed. Gayle was afraid to confront her daughter about it or ask the school because “it’s all gonna come down on me and I’m not ready to deal with it. I don’t think I should be punished for that.” Gayle was further frustrated because she knows Susan would be going to school every day if she was home. In this situation, Gayle feels trapped between caring for her daughter and working.

17. Tina and her daughter Tina is a single mother. Her adolescent daughter Tamara takes her younger sister to day care in the morning: “Cause she’s late every day for her school, every day. And what the school says to me is they gotta do what they do, what’s their policy. She’s gotta stay after school, do her detention or she’ll lose her credit out of that morning class cause she didn’t get there on time. So, she feels sad and I feel bad because I gotta be at work at 7. She can’t be at school by 7, she can’t. We all can’t be at the same place at the same time..”