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Operational Perspective on MJO Prediction Jon Gottschalck NOAA / Climate Prediction Center

Operational Perspective on MJO Prediction Jon Gottschalck NOAA / Climate Prediction Center DYNAMO Meeting Boulder, CO April 13, 2009. Outline. Joys of operational MJO forecasting, tools of the past CLIVAR MJO Index Predictions MJO onset in January 2009 MJO onset in September 2008.

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Operational Perspective on MJO Prediction Jon Gottschalck NOAA / Climate Prediction Center

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  1. Operational Perspective on MJO Prediction Jon Gottschalck NOAA / Climate Prediction Center DYNAMO Meeting Boulder, CO April 13, 2009

  2. Outline • Joys of operational MJO forecasting, tools of the past • CLIVAR MJO Index Predictions • MJO onset in January 2009 • MJO onset in September 2008

  3. Assessment Products CPC Weekly MJO Update ABOM Weekly Tropical Climate Note CPC Weekly GTH Assessment

  4. Some Statistical Tools • Monitoring continues to be an important component of the forecast • Statistical model benefits have peaked and offer little practical use • MJO composites Empirical Wave Propagation Lagged Regression

  5. The Future is Bright: CLIVAR MJOWG Forecasts http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml • 9 participating centers sending data to CPC in realtime • 14 unique data streams • NCEP, UKMET, ECMWF, Australian BOM, CMC, • Brazil CPTC, JMA, • (IMD and KMA planned) • Data includes: --Operational runs • --Ensembles • --Daily, monthly, seasonal forecasting systems

  6. January 2009 Case Generally stationary anomalous convection MJO strengthened

  7. January 2009 Case

  8. East Asian Cold Surge A

  9. September 2008 Case – OLR

  10. September 2008 Case – MJO Index

  11. September 2008 Case – MJO Index

  12. September 2008 Case – MJO Index

  13. September 2008 Case – MJO Index

  14. September 2008 Case – MJO Index

  15. September 2008 Case – MJO Index

  16. Questions and Comments Jon.Gottschalck@noaa.gov

  17. January 2009 Case

  18. CLIVAR Activity Specifics W: forecast sent only once per week See web page for key to Product IDs http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

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