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Travel Costs. Lecture 15 October 20, 2003 12-706 / 73-359. Admin / Announcements. EnergyFest tomorrow in UC 12-6 http://www.cmu.edu/greenpractices/energyfest03/ Feedback on Early Course Evals Project Presentation Feedback/Schedule Midsemester Grades Done (80% A/B - else C,D)
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Travel Costs Lecture 15 October 20, 2003 12-706 / 73-359
Admin / Announcements • EnergyFest tomorrow in UC 12-6 • http://www.cmu.edu/greenpractices/energyfest03/ • Feedback on Early Course Evals • Project Presentation Feedback/Schedule • Midsemester Grades Done (80% A/B - else C,D) • Done to encourage you to keep working hard • Midterm Questions / Due Date • See TA (jmarriot) with last minute questions • Start #3 as early as possible - get plugins loaded and running, download PDFs, etc. • Check sample files to recall what I showed in class
Project Groups / Clients • Lanka/Abhijit (Parking) • Troy/Karina/Guus (Brad - FMS) • Sandor (Michael Baker) • Aurora/Jared/Paulina (EH&S-Recycling) • Anuja/Iris/Kaiting (FMS - Brad) • Shavon • Edward/Cheng-Chien/Junbeum • Robert • Roger
Early Evaluation Comments - “Positive” • Goals clear • Well Organized • Good examples in lecture • Responsive/answers questions • HW Hard but fun • Analogies/stories good (new rule: 1 per class) • Enthusiastic (that’s a new one) • “Snazzy dresser” (got to be kidding)
Early Comments - “Negative”Not meant to be defensive • Talk too fast (tell me!) • Open ended questions (I warned you!) • More on board (ok, more coming too) • Too many slides / lecture (don’t HAVE to print) • More case studies (coming now) • Maybe more hws, less questions per hw (?) • Website needs new photo (of me?) • Make more people talk (ok!) • Need more details on final (?) • Not everything related to CBA (outline says this)
Value - travel time savings • Many studies seek to estimate VTTS • Can then be used easily in CBAs • Book reminds us of Waters 1993 (56 studies) • Many different methods used in studies • Route, speed, mode, location choices • Results as % of hourly wages not a $ amount • Mean value of 48% of wage rate (median 40) • North America: 59%/42%
Government Analyses • Typically 40-60% of hourly rate in CBAs • US (FHA) 60% - Canada 50% • Again, travel versus leisure important • Wide variation: 1:1 to 5:1! • Income levels are important themselves • VTTS not purely proportional to income • Waters suggests ‘square root’ relation • E.g. if income increases factor 4, VTTS by 2
Introduction - Congestion • Congestion (i.e. highway traffic) has impacts on movement of people & goods • Leads to increased travel time and fuel costs • Long commutes -> stress -> quality of life • Impacts freight costs (higher labor costs) and thus increases costs of goods & services • http://tti.tamu.edu/inside/hdv/programs/ama/mobility/study/report.stm (TTI report)
Literature Review • Texas Transportation Institute’s 1999 Annual Mobility Report • 15-year study to assess costs of congestion • Average daily traffic volumes • Binary congestion values • ‘Congested’ roads assumed both ways • Assumed 5% trucks all times/all roads • Assumed 1.25 persons/vehicle, $12/hour • Assumed roadway sizes for 3 classes of roads • Four different peak hour speeds (both ways)
Results • An admirable study at the national level • In 1997, congestion cost U.S. 4.3 billion hours of delay, 6.6 billion gallons of wasted fuel, thus $72 billion of total cost • New Jersey wanted to validate results with its own data
New Jersey Method • Used New Jersey Congestion Management System (NJCMS) - 21 counties total • Hourly data! Much more info. than TTI report • For 4,000 two-direction links • Freeways principal arteries, other arteries • Detailed data on truck volumes • Average vehicle occupancy data per county, per roadway type • Detailed data on individual road sizes, etc.
Level of Service • Description of traffic flow (A-F) • A is best, F is worst (A-C ‘ok’, D-F not) • Peak hour travel speeds calculated • Compared to ‘free flow’ speeds • A-C classes not considered as congested • D-F congestion estimated by free-peak speed • All attempts to make specific findings on New Jersey compared to national • http://www.njit.edu/Home/congestion/
Definitions • Roadway Congestion Index - cars per road space, measures vehicle density • Found per urban area (compared to avgs) • > 1.0 undesirable • Travel Rate Index • Amount of extra time needed on a road peak vs. off-peak (e.g. 1.20 = 20% more)
Definitions (cont.) • Travel Delay - time difference between actual time and ‘zero volume’ travel time • Congestion Cost - delay and fuel costs • Fuel assumed at $1.28 per gallon • VTTS - used wage by county (100%) • Also, truck delays $2.65/mile (same as TTI) • Congestion cost per licensed driver • Took results divided by licenses • Assumed 69.2% of all residents each county
Details • County wages $10.83-$23.20 per hour • Found RCI for each roadway link in NJ • Aggregated by class for each county
New York City RCI result: Northern counties generally higher than southern counties
TRI result: Northern counties generally higher than southern counties
Avg annual Delay = 34 hours! Almost a work Week!
Effects • Could find annual hours of delay per driver by aggregating roadway delays • Then dividing by number of drivers • Total annual congestion cost $4.9 B • Over 5% of total of TTI study • 75% for autos (190 M hours, $0.5 B fuel cost) • 25% for trucks (inc. labor/operating cost) • Avg annual delay per driver = 34 hours
Future • Predicted to only get worse • Congestion costs will double by 2015