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NRDC POLICY CASES vs REFERENCE CASE EMISSIONS 2014-2025. 3,000. 2,500. Reference Case. Historical. Moderate, Constrained Efficiency. 2,000. Moderate, Full Efficiency. CO 2 Emissions (short tons). Ambitious, Constrained Efficiency. 1,500. Ambitious, Constrained Efficiency, PTC.
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NRDC POLICY CASES vs REFERENCE CASE EMISSIONS 2014-2025 3,000 2,500 Reference Case Historical Moderate, Constrained Efficiency 2,000 Moderate, Full Efficiency CO2Emissions (short tons) Ambitious, Constrained Efficiency 1,500 Ambitious, Constrained Efficiency, PTC Ambitious, Full Efficiency 1,000 500 - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
NRDC POLICY CASES vs REFERENCE CASE GENERATION MIX: 2012 vs. 2020 REFERENCE CASE 2020 Reference 2012 Actual
NRDC POLICY CASES vs REFERENCE CASE PROJECTED GENERATION MIX IN 2020
NRDC POLICY CASES vs REFERENCE CASE EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS IN 2020: CO2 SO2 NOx
WESTERN REGIONAL RESULTS EMISSION REDUCTIONS IN 2020: CO2 SO2 NOx
PNW AND CA+OTHERWEST REGIONAL RESULTS CO2 CREDIT PRICES ($/Ton)
INTERSTATE ISSUES FOR CONSIDERATION Exporter states • Power leaves the state, emissions remain • States exporting to CA: emissions already counted under AB-32? Importerstates • Ability to select compliance pathways potentially limited by decisions in exporting states • Changes in out of state purchases reflected? • Out of state renewables and REC purchases? A multi-statecompliance agreement would allow each state to plan around utility portfolios, whether or not they cross state lines
HIGHER AND LOWER COST OPTIONS TO REACH THE SAME EMISSIONS LEVELS: NORTHWEST EXAMPLE The Northwest Power and Conservation Council analyze three pathways to ~35% emissions reductions by 2029 for the region, including imported power • $45/ton carbon tax: 14% revenue requirement increase • Cap and trade with free allocation: 2% revenue requirement increase • Phased coal retirement: 15% revenue requirement increase All scenariosincluded 5900 MW of additional Energy Efficiency