Timeliness of data collection and interpretation of emerging trends

1. Timeliness of data collection and interpretation of emerging trends Dirk J. Korf EMCDDA, Scientific Committee 17-18 November 2008

2. KEY QUESTIONS • With what means can the standard reporting cycle be complemented? • Which alternative possibilities are there to obtain more recent data? • How can we access additional qualitative information? • How could an exchange of information be organised?

3. STANDARD REPORTING CYCLE I • All indicators have limitations • Under-representation of relevant groups (heavy users in general population; school drop outs in ESPAD) • Trends in data might predominantly reflect policy (drug law offences, seizures, treatment demand) • Annual data collection not always realistic • Costs: General Population Surveys

4. STANDARD REPORTING CYCLE II • Last passenger delays the flight • Positive and/or negative reinforcement? • Stick to time schedule or wait till last one is in? • Focus on most relevant data • Less = better • Required completeness -> less motivation, more frustration • Balance innovation with consolidation of standard procedures • Respect big differences between member states (experienced vs. newcomers)

5. MEANS TO COMPLEMENT • Triangulation -> fuller picture and might help to fill gaps and explain contradictions • Parallel trends in data do not automatically prove trends in use (i.e. arrests and treatment) • Contrast analysis: compare countries with diverging trends • Add: information to explain trends • Policy changes, new treatment • Changes in lifestyle, attitudes, etc. • BE SELECTIVE: DON’T ASK TOO MUCH EVERY YEAR

6. OBTAINING MORE RECENT DATA • Focus on LYP, LMP and incidence • Selection of countries: trend setters, early observers • Or: selection of cities / regions • Antenna like projects in various cities • Focus on specific groups • High prevalence groups, for example young adults, party visitors …

9. PRESENTATIE RESULTATEN Ton Nabben & Sanna Koet

10. Horizontal & vertical trends • Vertical: Trend followers become part of developments initiated by trendsetters; drugs spread over other scenes. • Horizontal: New developments spread from centre of innovation to other parts of the country

11. Vertical: Drug use and scene in NL

12. Vertical: Dynamics in drug use & scene

13. Horizontal: Amphetamine • Horizontal and some vertical spread. • Rural vs. urban. • Most popular in Underground en Hardcore scene. • Prevention: • Revival of appreciation speed to reduce alcohol effects • Users under estimate risks

14. Ecstasy & Cocaine

15. GHB & Ketamine

16. ACCESS TO ADDITIONAL QUALITATIVE INFO • Ideally through Focal Points • Ideological conflicts (qualitative is not scientific; vs. ethno-epidemiology); separate schools; isolated FPs • Networks of qualitative researchers • Qualitative journals • New Journals (Cultural Criminology) • Students at EMCDDA

17. ORGANISING EXCHANGE OF INFORMATION • Facilitate working groups, seminars with grass root researchers (maybe not through FPs?) • Be topical, focus on specific issues, be selective: only real experts (vs. all member states should be represented)