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Reconstructing Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Social Vulnerability Los Angeles (1940-2000)

Reconstructing Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Social Vulnerability Los Angeles (1940-2000) Zaria Tatalovich John P. Wilson. Context. Part of larger Risk Transference Project in domain of vulnerability science Objective to understand what makes people and places vulnerable to extreme events

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Reconstructing Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Social Vulnerability Los Angeles (1940-2000)

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  1. Reconstructing Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Social Vulnerability Los Angeles (1940-2000) Zaria Tatalovich John P. Wilson

  2. Context • Part of larger Risk Transference Project in domain of vulnerability science • Objective to understand what makes people and places vulnerable to extreme events • Develop new methods and models for measurement of vulnerability • How well can we model vulnerability across space and time? • What are advantages of proposed model to understanding what makes people and places vulnerable? Zaria Tatalovich February 2006

  3. Social Vulnerability Index • Social vulnerability - extent to which society is exposed to shock brought about by economic, environmental, government policy changes or combination of factors • Calculate Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) based on set of social variables • Advantage of SVI - can be used to represent complex phenomena in a format which permits easy comparison over time Zaria Tatalovich February 2006

  4. Calculating SVI Population and structure • Calculate Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) for each decade 1940-2000 based on 6 social indicators (variables): • Population • Housing Units • Non-White Population • Below College Education • Median Value of Housing Unit • Blue Collar Occupation • Data Source: Los Angeles County Union Census Tract Data Series, 1940 -1990 (Ethington et al. 2000) • Re-aggregate historical census data to Census 2000 boundaries • Calculate proportion of Census tracts enclosed in each of 2000 tracts and allocating variables accordingly Factors that influence SV Differential access to resources Wealth/Poverty 1000 people 100 km² 700 people 70 km² 300 people 30 km² 1990 2000

  5. Social Vulnerability (1940-2000)

  6. Mean SVI 1940-2000

  7. Social Vulnerability + Hazardous Event Vulnerability to Specific Event Earthquake Scenario (HAZUS-MH): Northridge 1994

  8. Vulnerability to Specific Event (cont.) Social Vulnerability (SV) SV + PGA

  9. Combining Physical and Social Vulnerability Biophysical Vulnerability Social Vulnerability Place Vulnerability + + = Hazardous Event

  10. Work Ahead • Integrate biophysical risk (e.g. frequency of hazardous events) with social risk to understand place-based composite vulnerability • Run several existing HAZUS earthquake scenarios in each decade 1940-2000 • Reconstruct building inventory 1940-2000 for input to HAZUS • Compare historical trends in vulnerability to earthquakes • Predict future risk

  11. Acknowledgements Place-Based Decision Support for Spatial and Temporal Transference of Risk and Hazards John Wilson GIS Research Laboratory Thomas Jordan Southern California Earthquake Center Jennifer Swift Civil & Environmental Engineering Mark Benthien Earth Sciences Zaria Tatalovich Geography Susan Cutter Hazards Research Lab Madilyn Fletcher Marine Sciences Cary Mock Geography Walter Piegorsch Statistics John Rose Computer Science & Engineering John Shafer Earth Sciences and Resources Institute Matt Schmidtlein

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