1 / 39

Cruise Liner Schedule

Cruise Liner Schedule. Jason Deleon Steve Rockwell Will Wathen. Background. Vacation Cruise Industry (2012) Over 20 Million passengers Generated over $42 Billion in economic activity (US) OR Consultants hired by Major Cruise Liner Analyze current voyage network Minimize cost

gail
Download Presentation

Cruise Liner Schedule

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Cruise Liner Schedule Jason Deleon Steve Rockwell Will Wathen

  2. Background • Vacation Cruise Industry (2012) • Over 20 Million passengers • Generated over $42 Billion in economic activity (US) • OR Consultants hired by Major Cruise Liner • Analyze current voyage network • Minimize cost • Itinerary recommendations • Analyze resiliency of network • Impacts of catalysts *Paid hefty sum for analysis, no need to question results M

  3. Real World Problem • Network Design • Measures of Effectiveness on an itinerary for an n day cruise • Cost (Transit and Port Fees) • Fun - Utility • Analyze effects of desired fun • Relate to target demographics • Impacts of catalyst i.e. weather, coup M

  4. Network Map Overview M

  5. Network Description • Cruise Liner Voyage Network • Consists of all possible voyage routes   • Connects all possible ports for a particular cruise liner (Royal Caribbean) • Time-layered network • Each layer is a day M

  6. Network Design • Nodes: Port on a given cruise day i.e Haiti 3 • 16 Ports x 8 days = 128 nodes • S & T = Homeport = Fort Lauderdale, FL • Node Data: Fun Factor, Lat/Long • Edges: Connection of two ports from one time layer to another • Bahamas 2 ------ Haiti 4 (Two Day Transit) • Edge Data: Cost = Transit Cost + Port Fees M

  7. Five Day Time Layer Network (Subset) Day 5 FL BAH HA DR Day 4 FL BAH HA DR Day 3 HA DR FL BAH Day 2 FL BAH HA DR Day 1 FL BAH HA DR Day 0 FL BAH HA DR

  8. Five Day Time Layer Network (Subset) Day 5 FL BAH HA DR Day 4 FL BAH HA DR Day 3 HA DR FL BAH Day 2 FL BAH HA DR Day 1 FL BAH HA DR Day 0 FL BAH HA DR

  9. Nodes M

  10. Start/End Node M

  11. Example of Route Day 5 Day 0 Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 M

  12. Mathematical Model Shortest Path MILP • Minimizing Port Costs & Transit Costs • Netflow Constraints • Design Constraints (Real World): • No overnight stays in port • Cannot return to visited port other than Homeport • Length of cruise in days • Analysis Fun Factor constraint M

  13. Assumptions • Direct Path - Navigable Route • Great Circle Distance • Average Speed of ship is constant : 25 knots • Max Range: 400 NM/day • Fun Factor: Excursions/Affordability • Port Fees: $10-$25 per person. • Haiti- $0 port fees - Long Term Lease in Labadee (Royal Caribbean). M

  14. Situation Dependent Variables • Travel Miles per day • Cruise Length in days • Cost of Fuel • Fuel Consumption rate • Ship speed • Port Fees • Fun Factor • Range/day * All Variables can be modified to correspond to real cruise network M

  15. Results: Min Cost • 5-day Route: • FortLaud0, Bahamas1, Haiti3, FortLaud5 • Cost: $425,194 • 7 -day Route: • FortLaud0, CaymanI2, Haiti4, Bahamas6, FortLaud7 • Cost: $ 610,296 • 10-day Route: • FortLaud0, Bahamas1, StThomas4, PuertoRico5, StMaarten6, Haiti8, FortLaud10 • Cost: $ 891,990 M

  16. Adding Utility • Added Utility to the model • Fun Factor • Utilized Constraint to ensure a certain level of “Fun” • Increased Fun Factor from minimal feasible solution to maximum feasible solution • Cost Vs. Fun Relationship • Demographic Comparisons M

  17. Utility: Fun Factor • Cruise Length Fixed at 7 days • 16: FortLaud0, Bahamas1, Haiti3 , CaymanI5, FortLaud7 • Cost: $ 610,296 • 19: FortLaud0, CaymanI2 , DomRep4, Bahamas6, FortLaud7 • Cost: $ 721,276 • 21: FortLaud0, StThomas3, PuertoRico4, DomRep5, FortLaud7 • Cost: $ 751,934 • 22: FortLaud0, StMaarten3, StThomas4, DomRep5, FortLaud7 • Cost: $ 836,982 • 24: FortLaud0, DomRep2 , Aruba3 , CaymanI5, FortLaud7 • Cost: $ 902,282 M

  18. Fun Factor vs. Cost P

  19. Target Market (<$75k) - Marketing cruises based upon demographic. - Design cruise for family with combined income <$75k (~35% of passengers). - Priority of customer may be price and not necessarily itinerary. - Example: 16: FortLaud0, Bahamas1, Haiti3 , CaymanI5, FortLaud7 Cost: $ 610,296

  20. Target Market (>$75k) - Marketing cruises based upon demographic. - Design cruise for family with combined income >$75k (~65% of passengers). - Priority of customer may be itinerary and not necessarily price. • Example: • 24: FortLaud0, DomRep2 , Aruba3 , CaymanI5, FortLaud7 Cost: $ 902,282

  21. Multi-Segment Strategy - Utilizing a strategy to target multiple market segments that are based upon demographics. - If only one itinerary is marketed, what would attract the most customers? - Low price while providing moderate/high level of fun factor. • Example: • 21: FortLaud0, StThomas3, PuertoRico4, DomRep5, FortLaud7 • Cost: $ 751,934

  22. Attack

  23. Attack Scenario: • 7- day Itinerary for “most fun” cruise route • 2 days prior to departure • Hurricane Thelma hits • Randomly takes out ports • Follow on attacks • Consultants called to find alternate route with a near equivalent fun factor

  24. Max Fun Route - No Attack M

  25. 1 Attack M

  26. 2 Attacks M

  27. 3 Attacks M

  28. 4 Attacks M

  29. 5 Attacks M

  30. 6 Attacks M

  31. 7 Attacks M

  32. 8 Attacks M

  33. 9 Attacks M

  34. 10 Attacks M

  35. Resiliency

  36. Conclusion • Shortest Path MILP • Minimizing Port Costs & Transit Costs • Analyzed impact of Fun Factor • Positive Correlation (Fun & Cost) • Most Fun Cruise 1.5X as expensive as least Fun • Translates directly to Customer • Recommended Cruises based on Utility value • Effects of Attacks & Resilience • Key Take-aways P

  37. Follow-on Work -Enable User Interface -Multiple Cruise Ship Types -Alternate Homeport Analysis -Add Granularity Detailed Routes, Detailed Cost Variables -Model Risks of traversing Bermuda Triangle

  38. References -crusing.org/regulatory/issues-facts -cruiseweb.com/royal-caribbean/eastern-caribbean/#itineraries -vacationstogo.com/cruise_port/Caribbean.cfm -www.timeanddate.com/ -www.latlong.net/ -www.cruisemarketwatch.com -Professor Ned Dimitrov’s Brain

  39. Questions? Cruise Liner Schedule P

More Related