Indonesia s Domestic Politics 2010 and Its Trend in 2011: The Rise of Collutive and Corruptive Democracy

1. Indonesia�s Domestic Politics 2010 and Its Trend in 2011: The Rise of Collutive and Corruptive Democracy? Ikrar Nusa Bhakti Research Professor Indonesian Institute of Sciences

2. Establishment of Second Indonesia�s Unity Cabinet Jumbo and Rainbow Political Coalition Political Parties Behind Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono-Boediono Cabinet: Democratic Party (149 from 560 seats in parliament or 26.6%); Golkar Party (106 seats); Prosperous and Justice Party (57); National Mandate Party (46); United Development Party (37); National Awakening Party (28); all together equivalent to 75.5% political power in National Parliament. Opposition Party (Political Balancer): Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (94 seats); Greater Indonesia Movement (26); People�s Conscience Party (17); equivalent to 24.46%.

3. Political and Security Condition in 2010 In general, political and security condition in Indonesia is very stable; No big social unrest or big ethnic conflict, except small ethnic conflict in Tarakan, East Kalimantan; There are still problem for Christians and Ahmaddyah Followers to conduct their religious activities; Political intricts and conflicts mostly happens among the members of political coalition who support the government. It is an elites conflict rather than conflicts at the grass root levels.

4. The First One Hundred Days of SBY-Boediono Cabinet: Mega scandal Century Bank Mega scandal Century Bank; Political demonstrations against the government; Political Fraction in Parliaments mentioned Vice President Boediono and Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani Indrawati as suspects in Century Bank Scandal; SBY defended that no wrong doing in bailout policy to Century Bank; People suspected that some money from Century Bank goes to Democratic Party for political campaign during elections in 2009;

5. Impact of Bank Century Scandal March 2, Golkar, PPP and PKS joint the opposition parties to vote for Option C, that there was corruption content in government policy to safe Century Bank; Parliament sent a letter to President SBY recommends Boediono and Sri Mulyani to be non-active, but it was rejected by SBY through Coordinating Minister for Political Affairs. May 5, Sri Mulyani resigned from cabinet because of political intrict.

6. The establishment of Setgab (Joint Secretariat) In order to reduce miscommunication between the government and the coalition parties and among coalition parties, SBY established Sekretariat Bersama and than became Sekretarian Gabungan or Joint Secretariat just one day after Sri Mulyani resignation; Setgab chaired by SBY himself with day to day chairmanship by Aburizal Bakrie; In reality, setgab full of intricts and conflicts related to mega scandals Century Bank and Gayus Tambunan and uncertainties related to reshuffle cabinet. PKS and other Islamic based political parties are still concern that they will became victims of bargaining politics between PD and PG related to cabinet reshuffle.

7. Mega Scandal: Gayus MP Tambunan There were about 11.000 tax cases in the tax court in 2010; The most famous one was Gayus case. Gayus was former low ranking tax officer at Directorate General Taxation; he received more than Rp100billions from 149 companies, Rp 35 billion of that was from three companies belong to the Bakrie Group. Aburizal Bakrie is the chairman of Golkar Party.

8. Political Barter between Democratic Party and Golkar Party? Quite number politicians in parliaments believes that there was political barter between Democratic Party (PD) and Golkar Party (PG) related to law enforcement on Bank Century and Gayus cases. Bank Century case related to PD and Gayus case related to Golkar party. Three companies belong to Bakrie Group suspected bribe Gayus US$3.5million or Rp35billions. However, the police and the court have never investigated how much money given by 146 companies to Gayus and whether those companies conducted Corruption and kickbacks during general election and election of president in 2009;

9. Political Barter Continued Until now mega scandals Bank Century and Gayus Tambunan have not finished yet because there are so many institutions have their own interests related to those me scandals, including political parties, the police, attorney general office, the justice and human rights ministry and so on. They do not want that those scandals will be opened in court because it will damage their political images or reduce their own interests; If there is a political barter, it has created a collutive and corruptive democracy.

10. Conflict related to Draft Law on Special position Yogyakarta SBY: Monarchy cannot live side by side with democracy and presidential system; after receiving so many critics from the people, SBY change his tone and said that he respected special status of Yogyakarta; Conflict related to special status of Yogyakarta was not only a conflict between central government and local authority, but also conflicts between two political leaders, namely between SBY and Sultan Hamengkubuwono X. HB X was a proposed candidate for president in 2010 and now becomes a prominent person in Nasional Demokrat, a mass organization which is very critical to the government. Sultan HB X also a prospective presidential candidate in 2014.

11. Political Trends in 2011: The Rise of Political Nepotism Nepotism and Politics. Even though SBY has stated that he did not want his wife, children or relatives will become a presidential candidate, in reality he accepted his second son Edi Baskoro or Ibas be elected or appointed as secretary general of PD and one of Vice Chairman of KADIN Indonesia (Indonesian Chamber and Commerce); First Lady Kristiani Yudhoyono is now started being campaigned by Democratic Party as prospective presidential candidate in 2014;

12. Political Trends in 2011 (continued) There is also possible that SBY�s brother in law who just been appointed as Kostrad commander will be appointed as Army Chief of staff in 2011 and then as TNI Commander just before 2014; Nepotism in politics also happens in Megawati Soekarnoputri and Amien Rais family. Megawati�s daughter, Puan Maharani is now one of PDI-P chairman, while Amien Rais son is a member of PAN and DPR-RI.

13. Elite conflict continue Conflict s between political elites will continue during 2011, particularly among the member of setgab; However, in general, political and security condition in the country will be stable; Problem related to human rights issue will also continue during 2011; .

14. ELITE CONFLICT CONTINUE SBY will use Indonesia�s position as chairman of ASEAN in 2011 as his chance to upgrade his popularity. However, people in the country will again give some comments that SBY�s popularity about could probably rising, but his popularity in the country will be getting down if he cannot provide prosperity to the people and conducted law enforcement in the country. SBY popularity, according survey conducted by Kompas daily newspaper has falling down from 90% just after presidential election in 2009 to 54.6 % in 2010