Regional Climate Service

1. Regional Climate Service Hans von Storch1;2; Insa Meinke1;7,2; Nico Stehr3; Beate Ratter1; Werner Krauss1; Roger A. Pielke jr4 Reiner Grundmann5; Marcus Reckermann1;6; Ralf Weisse1 1. Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz ZentrumGeesthacht, Germany 2. KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany 3. Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen, Germany 4. Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, U of Colorado, Boulder CO, United States 5. Ashton University, Birmingham, United Kingdom 6. BALTEX Secretariat, Helmholtz ZentrumGeesthacht, Germany 7. North German Climate Office, Helmholtz ZentrumGeesthacht, Germany

2. Climate science informs climate policy about needs, options and measures. In doing so, there is a need for knowledge abut climate dynamics, climate perspectives, impacts, vulnerabilities and the efficiency of measures (for mitigation and adaptation). This process may be called “Climate Service”. For the global and for the regional stage, different stakeholders are relevant. Significant components of the national and international dimension have to do with mitigation, and global and superregional issues. This is Global Climate Service. When dealing with regions (state-level, municipalities, sectors), adaptation has most often priority, and the process is called Regional Climate Service.

3. A „linear model“-frameworkofhowtothinkaboutresponsestrategies (Hasselmann, 1990)

4. Climate change is a „constructed“ issue. People hardly experience „climate change“. One construction is scientific, i.e. an „objective“ analysis of observations and interpretation by theories. The other construction is cultural, in particular maintained and transformed by the public media. Climate science is in a post-normal phase (where interest-led utility is a significant driver, and less so “normal” curiosity) Constructions

5. Is scientific knowledge driving the policy process?

6. Postnormal science State of science, when facts uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent. (Jerry Ravetz, Silvio Funtovicz, 1986 and earlier) Climate science is postnormal, see Bray and von Storch, 1998 In this state, science is not done for reasons of curiosity but is asked for as support for preconceived value-based agendas. Needs attention at the border society/science; self reflection by science; critical analysis by cultural sciences. Further reading: von Storch, H., 2009: Climate Research and Policy Advice: Scientific and Cultural Constructions of Knowledge. Env. Science Pol. 12, 741‐747 von Storch, H., A. Bunde and N. Stehr, 2011: The Physical Sciences and Climate Politics. In J.S. Dyzek, D. Schlosberg, and R. B. Norgaard (eds): The Oxford Handbook of Climate Change and Society. Oxford University Press. Oxford UK (in press)

7. Two different construction of „climate change“ – scientific and cultural – which is more powerful? Cultural: „Klimakatastrophe“ Scientific: man-made change is real, can be mitigated to some extent but not completely avoided Temperature Lund and Stockholm Storms

10. The science-policy/public interaction is not an issue of the linear model of „knowledge speaks to power“. The problem is not that the public is stupid or uneducated. Science has failed to respond to legitimate public questions and has instead requested. “Trust us, we are scientists”. The problem is that the scientific knowledge is confronted on the „explanation marked“ with other forms of knowledge. Scientific knowledge does not necessarily “win” this competition. The social process „science“ is influenced by these other knowledge forms. Knowledge market

11. Regional Climate service comprises … • Analysis of cultural construct, including common exaggeration in the media. • Determination of response options on the local and regional scale: mainly adaptation but also regional and local mitigation. • Dialogue of stakeholders and climate knowledge brokers in „Klimabureaus“. • 2. Analysis of consensus on relevant issues (climate consensus reports). • 3. Description of recent and present changes. • - Projection of possible future changes, which are dynamically consistent and possible („scenarios“)

12. North German Climate Office@HZG • An institution set up to enable communication between science and stakeholders • that is: making sure that science understands the questions and concerns of a variety of stakeholders • that is: making sure that the stakeholders understand the scientific assessments and their limits. • Typical stakeholders: Coastal defense, agriculture, off-shore activities (energy), tourism, water management, fisheries, urban planning 1

13. Local scenarios

14. „Klimaatlas“ • Raw data from 12 regional climate projections • Analyzed for Northern Germany • Interactive user interface

15. 2 climate consensus reports Assessments of knowledge about regional climate change- for the recent past (200 years), for present change and possible future change- consensus of what is scientifically documentedfor+ Baltic Sea (BACC) – BACC 1 done, BACC 2 just launched+ Hamburg region (published November 2010)+ North Sea (just launched)

16. Regional and local conditions – in the recent past and next century? 3 Simulation with barotropicmodel of Noth Sea Globale development(NCEP) Dynamical downscalingREMO or CLM Pegel St. Pauli Cooperation with a variety of governmental agencies and with a number of private companies Empirical downscaling

17. www.coastdat.de • The CoastDat data set: • Long (50 years) and high-resolution reconstructions of recent offshore and coastal conditions mainly in terms of wind, storms, waves, surges and currents and other variables in N Europe • Scenarios (100 years) of possible consistent futures of coastal and offshore conditions • extension – ecological variables, Baltic Sea, E Asia, Laptev Sea • Clients: • Governmental: various coastal agencies dealing with coastal defense and coastal traffic • Companies: assessments of risks (ship and offshore building and operations) and opportunities (wind energy) • General public / media: explanations of causes of change; perspectives and options of change GKSS in Geesthacht

18. Some applications of • Ship design • Navigational safety • Offshore wind • Interpretation of measurements • Oils spill risk and chronic oil pollution • Ocean energy • Scenarios of storm surge conditions • Scenarios of future wave conditions Wave Energy Flux [kW/m] Currents Power [W/m2]

19. Task of science is • to offer explanation for a complex world, its dynamics, links and dependencies. • but not to derive what needs to be done, but what can be done. • establish measures to establish quality of science by insisting on scientific method (cf. Merton‘s CUDOS). • The capital of science is not the utility of the scientific findings but the methodology used to obtain such findings.

20. Merton‘s CUDOS • Communalism: the common ownership of scientific discoveries, according to which scientists give up intellectual property rights in exchange for recognition and esteem. • Universalism: according to which claims to truth are evaluated in terms of universal or impersonal criteria, and not on the basis of race, class, gender, religion, or nationality. • Disinterestedness: scientists, when presenting their work publicly, should do so without any prejudice or personal values and do so in an impersonal manner. • Organized skepticism: all ideas must be tested and are subject to rigorous, structured community (peer review) scrutiny.

21. Take home • Societal service of science is the provision of explanation of complex phenomena, using the scientific methodology a la Merton (CUDOS). • Climate science operates in a post-normal situation, which goes along with a tendency of policizing science, and scientizing politics. Cultural science need to support climate science to deal with this challenge. • Climate Science needs to offer “Climate Service”, which includes the establishment of a dialogue with the public (direct or via media) and stakeholders –recognizing the socio-cultural dynamics of the issue.