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Maurice Blackmon’s Influence on a Weather Forecaster and Weather Forecasting

Maurice Blackmon’s Influence on a Weather Forecaster and Weather Forecasting. (and Weather Forecasting). Steven L. Mullen University of Arizona (Sabbatical at NOAA/ESRL/GSD). Duel MLB venues!. It’s a MLB Weekend!. Great deal available for game 5 tonight!. “Weather” by Land….

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Maurice Blackmon’s Influence on a Weather Forecaster and Weather Forecasting

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  1. Maurice Blackmon’s Influence on a Weather Forecaster and Weather Forecasting (and Weather Forecasting) Steven L. Mullen University of Arizona (Sabbatical at NOAA/ESRL/GSD)

  2. Duel MLB venues! It’s a MLB Weekend! Great deal available for game 5 tonight!

  3. “Weather” by Land…

  4. Or by Sea…

  5. It Did Not Matter

  6. The Boy Loved Weather!

  7. But Forecaster Needed Rigor Work hard Forecaster. With total dedication and superb guidance, there is a way. http://mathmistakes.info/mistakes/calculus/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gottfried_Leibniz

  8. Forecaster Was Very Fortunate • He was introduced to man who was Wise Kind Patient Forgiving Giving

  9. Example Blocking Event Blackmon et al. (1985 JAS)

  10. See What GCM’s Now Simulate • Height Anomalies in NCAR CCM0 • Would you consider coming to NCAR to do a dissertation on blocking in CCM0 under my guidance? Blackmon et al. (1985 JAS)

  11. Persistent Anomalies (+100m, 10 days) Model CCM1 Blackmon et al. (1985 JAS)

  12. Blocking Onset Low PV Low PV Blackmon et al. (1985 JAS)

  13. Blocking Onset Low PV Low PV Blackmon et al. (1985 JAS)

  14. Block Maintenance Blackmon et al. (1985 JAS)

  15. Synoptic Eddy Forcing of Blocks • Onset preceded by rapid cyclogenesis; attendant poleward flux of low PV air • Maintenance phase N-S elongated eddies that weaken as they approach block; EW elongated eddies on east side of block Blackmon et al. (1985 JAS)

  16. GCM Blocking • “We conclude that the blocking episodes produced in the model are quite realistic and we believe that the model data can be used as a reasonable proxy for observations to study this phenomenon.” Blackmon et al. (1985 JAS)

  17. Synoptic Eddy Forcing of Blocks QG Height Tendency at 300 mb and 1000 mb during Atlantic Blocking Episodes CCM0 Output Mullen 1987

  18. Synoptic Eddy Forcing of Blocks QG Height Tendency at 300 mb and 1000 mb during Atlantic Blocking Episodes NMC Analyses Mullen 1987

  19. Ratio of Barotropic Deformation to Baroclinic Growth Parameter CCM2 NCEP CCM3 Black and Dole (2000)

  20. GCM’s, SST and “Blocking” • NCAR CCM0 forcing by the 1976/77 SST anomaly of Blackmon et al. (1983) and Pitcher et al. (1988) • How much does “blocking” contribute to time-mean flow anomalies? Mullen (1989 JC)

  21. GCM’s, SST’s and “Blocking” • 500 mb height anomaly for all 1,200 simulation days. • Half the size • 500 mb height anomaly for the ~90% of days that did not exhibit a “block” Mullen (1989 JC)

  22. Blocking Predictability Nutter et al (1998)

  23. PQPF Ensemble Forecasts • Two ensemble members for 6-12 h precipitation forecasts from the MM4 Modeling system. Du et al. (1997)

  24. Eta 12km More isotropic Faster motion ARW 12km More anistropic Slower motion Stage4 12km Stage4 12km DFW Grid Point for 2004 Spring Project Lag -3h Lag 0h Lag +3h

  25. Probabilistic prediction in AWIPS II Climo Verification Probabilistic guidance from NCEP Probability generator / calibrator GFE Local database SREF NAEFS ECMWF NDFD Courtesy Paul Schultz

  26. What I remember most…

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