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SAMI Consulting

SAMI Consulting. What forces will change our world? A commentary. Dr Chris Yapp. OK… Let’s be cynical. Where’s my personal jet pack? .COM bubble, 2008 Crash…. Self-driving cars …. Flying cars (remember them?) The End is nigh! Club of Rome 1973 1980 The New Ice Age!

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SAMI Consulting

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  1. SAMI Consulting What forces will change our world? A commentary Dr Chris Yapp www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  2. OK… Let’s be cynical • Where’s my personal jet pack? • .COM bubble, 2008 Crash…. • Self-driving cars …. Flying cars (remember them?) • The End is nigh! Club of Rome 1973 • 1980 The New Ice Age! • The “Cure for Cancer” www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  3. What we think we know • Key Trends • Discontinuities • Roadblocks • Events • From the forces deck • Demographics • West to East • Environment & Resources • Technology • Globalisation • The Future is faster! www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  4. A trend is your friend ---------- until it bends • Population • Ageing • Arab Spring • Women’s rights • Diaspora • Chinese migration • Resource Wars • Education and skills • Obesity • Technology • R&D Productivity eg Pharma • New materials: Architecture • 3D Printing • Energy Security • Internet of Things www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  5. When trends interact? • Life expectancy is increasing 1 year every decade • New Science will extend life spans • Obesity is lowering life expectations • Long-term conditions will become more manageable • Retirement and the Pensions Crisis? • Life expectancy gap widening across social classes • Ageing population with rising schools rolls www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  6. Interaction between Technology and Society • Social values • Open and Closed? • Institutional maturity • Legal Frameworks • Regulation • Jurisdiction • War and instability “The Stone Age didn’t finish because we ran out of stones” Sheik Yamani www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  7. What we tend to overlook • Events: The next Los Angeles Earthquake • How many countries in 2050? • Religion… • How many companies from 1993 are still around?. How many of today’s will exist in 2033? www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  8. The dinosaurs died out… “ There are only 66 institutions in the West that have survived since the 1600s without fundamental changes to their mission and structure: these are The Parliament of Iceland The Parliament of the Isle of Man The Catholic Church The Lutheran Church and 62 Universities” www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  9. Electronic Publishing Market Impact Publishers? Bookstores? … The Third Horizon www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  10. Reasons to be Optimistic • 2013 • 60th Anniversary of DNA structure • 40th Anniversary of Arpanet in Europe • 300th Anniversary of the death of Edward Lloyd • New waves of sciences and technologies arriving in next decade www.samiconsulting.co.uk

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