Solid Earth and Natural Hazards Program Progress and Plans

1. Solid Earth and Natural Hazards ProgramProgress and Plans NASA’s Earth Science Enterprise Prof. Thomas Herring and Dr. John L. LaBrecque MIT Manager SENH Program Based on November 27, 2001 Presentation by John LaBrecque

2. NASA’s Earth Science Enterprise Pioneers Scientific Observation of the Earth Our Mission: Develop a scientific understanding of the Earth system and its response to natural and human-induced changes to enable improved prediction of climate, weather, and natural hazards for present and future generations

3. As a Result, Science Now Views the Earth as a Dynamic System Forces acting on the Earth system Earth system response IMPACTS Feedback Of the total forcing of the climate system, 40% is due to the direct effect of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and 60% is from feedback effects, such as increasing concentrations of water vapor as temperature rises.

4. Applications Theme Areas • Environmental Quality • Air and water quality • Land use/Land change • Community Growth • Transportation Infrastructure • Quality of life in communities • Disaster Management • Natural Hazards • Environment & Health • Resource Management • Renewable &Non-renewable Healthy crop Stressed crop Ken Hood, Perthshire Farms, Mississippi

5. Applications Thrusts • Aiming at partnerships to apply Earth Science data and technology to high priority national needs • Flood plain mapping with FEMA • Highway siting with DOT • Aviation safety (topography and atmosphere) with FAA • Precision agriculture with USDA • Precision global navigation with Industry and DoD • Improved weather prediction with NOAA • Water & other natural resource management with USGS & Statel/local governments

6. Science: How is the Earth Changing and What Are the Consequences for Life on Earth? • How is the global Earth system changing? • What are the primary causes of change in the Earth system? • How does the Earth system respond to natural and human-induced changes? • What are the consequences of changes in the Earth system for human civilization? • How well can we predict future changes to the Earth system?

7. What is Required? • Research • Sponsors competitively selected research, analysis and modeling via open solicitations structured around the science question • Supports basic Earth science R&A and related EOS and other mission science teams, the suborbital science program, and the interdisciplinary research investigations. • Observations (Development) • Systematic measurement missions to detect trends against the background variability in the Earth system • Exploratory measurement missions to examine lesser understood but important Earth system processes (particularly in forcings and responses) • Technology • Technology development and demonstration to reduce the cost and enhance the capability of future missions and data product capabilities • Applications Demonstrations • Enhancing the near term socioeconomic benefit of NASA’s Earth Science investment to the American taxpayer. • Focus on meeting the needs of State and Local governments and partnerships with other Federal agencies (e.g. FEMA, EPA, USDA, NOAA)

8. Solid Earth Science Working Group “To guide the science community in the development of a recommended long-term vision and strategy for Solid Earth Science at NASA” Chairman: Dr. Sean Solomon Dr. Bernard Minster Dr. Byron Tapley Dr. Walter C. Pitman, III Dr. Mark Simons Dr. Mary Lou C. Zoback Dr. Andrea Donnellan Dr. Alan Chave Dr. Tom Herring Dr. Jeremy Bloxham Dr. Eric Rignot Dr. Donald Turcotte Dr. Raymond Jeanloz Dr. Victor R. Baker Dr. Ben Chao Dr. Alan Gillespie Dr. Douglas Burbank Web Page: http://gaia.hq.nasa.gov/nsewg/index.cfm http:/solidearth.jpl.nasa.gov e-mail: seswg@hq.nasa.gov

9. Strategic Solid Earth Science Research Goals • Topography and Surface Change -How is the Earth’s surface being transformed and how can such information be used to predict future changes? • What is the nature of deformation at plate boundaries, and what are the implications for earthquake hazards? • How do tectonic, geomorphic, hydrologic, and biologic processes interact to shape the landscape and produce natural hazards? • What are the interactions among ice masses, oceans, and the solid Earth and their implications for sea level change? • Earth Dynamics -What are the motions of the Earth and the Earth’s interior, and what information can be inferred about Earth's internal processes? • How do magmatic systems evolve, and under what conditions do volcanoes erupt? • What are the dynamics of the mantle, and how does the Earth’s surface respond? • What are the dynamics of the Earth's magnetic field and its interactions with the Earth system?

10. Technology Emphasis Areas Geospatial Computing Communications Earth System Science in the future will leverage three ongoing technology revolutions: ...To enable timely and affordable delivery of Earth Science data and information to users

11. We Will Examine Practically Every Aspect of the Earth System From Space in This Decade Systematic Missions-Observation of Key Earth System Interactions Terra Landsat 7 Aqua Aura QuikSCAT ICEsat Jason-1 Exploratory - Explore Specific Earth System Processes and Parameters and Demonstrate Technologies SRTM GRACE Cloudsat EO-3 VCL PICASSO EO-1

12. SESWG Calls for“InSAR Everywhere All the Time” • ~1 mm-accuracy with <100 m spatial resolution • 4-D Vector strain measurements • Dense time series (image archive) • Ability to provide measurements in vegetated areas 1994 Northridge Earthquake At L-band (JERS) GeoSyncSAR

13. Interagency Collaboration for Multidisciplinary Science

14. EarthScope:The NASA View EarthScope is a broad consortium of solid Earth scientists supported by an alliance of federal agencies - NSF, NASA, and USGS- • EarthScope affirms the value of NASA developed Space Geodetic Techniques (e.g. GPS, SLR, VLBI, InSAR, LIDAR) developed under the Crustal Dynamics Program, DOSE, and SENH during the past twenty-five years. • EarthScope is an opportunity to significantly advance NASA’s goals in natural hazards research, mitigation, and disaster management. • EarthScope offers a unique opportunity to apply new space-based observations within a well instrumented natural laboratory for geodynamics research. • NASA’s role in EarthScope can be expanded beyond InSAR to include advanced space-based and airborne sensor technologies with a strong geodynamic modeling component.

15. NASA’s EarthScope Participation Lead Agency NSF NSF NSF NASA NASA • Event Triggering and Regional Targeting • Identification of Fault Processes • Structure of Lithosphere-Aesthenosphere-Mantle • SAR, Lidar, Hyperspectral & Multispectral Imaging Data • GPS Science, Technology, Orbits, Algorithms, Processing • Terrestrial Reference Frame • Mission Design and Implementation • Processing Software and Systems • Science Support Increase Earth System Understanding Natural Hazards Forecasting and Mitigation

16. PBO and InSAR will generate near Synoptic Views of Earth Dynamics InSAR Provides Spatially Continuous Measurements GPS Provides Time Continuous Deformation Measurement

17. InSAR Measures Important but Imperceptible Surface Changes INSAR can Detect Slow Deformation Processes such as Subsidence Related to Fluid Extraction and Aseismic Creep. Groundwater Withdrawal Pomona, CA

18. InSAR Measures Unreported Volcanic Activity Wolf: +10 cm 0.5 Billion people live near volcanoes, many of which are not monitored and have unknown surface deformation and hazard potential Darwin: + 22 cm Sierra Negra: + 250 cm Amelung and Jonsson

19. Geodetic Imaging Has Arrived Gila National Park Long Valley, CA InSAR enables sub-centimeter scale land surface change detection beneath vegetation LIDAR enables centimeter scale measurements of the land surface beneath vegetation Precision Practical Real Time Navigation Enables It All

20. SRTM Mapped 80% of the Earth’s Land Surface • Objective: Digital terrain data of the Earth Landmass. • One arc-sec (30 meter) posting • 10 meter relative height resolution • 16 meter absolute height resolution • Mosaickable terrain-corrected geocoded images

21. San Andreas Fault at Lancaster, CA Looking NW SRTM with Landsat Overlay

22. NASA’s Global Geodetic Networks Enable Global Millimeter Scale Measurements within a Stable Terrestrial Reference Frame Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) Global Positioning System (GPS) • Satellite Positioning < 3 cm • Time Variable Gravity • Earth Center of Mass • 37 Station Network • Network Organization: • International Laser Ranging Service • Satellite Positioning <10 cm • Polar motion • Site velocity • >250 Station Network • Network Organization:. • International GPS Service • Polar Motion • Length of Day • Inertial Reference • 30 Station Network • Network Organization: • International VLBI Service

23. Precision Global Real Time Navigation Enables Practical Airborne & Spaceborne InSAR NASA’s Global Real Time Network JPL processing center running IGDG Internet Internet Iridium and Imarsat Broadcast Revolutionary new capability: decimeter real time positioning, anywhere, anytime Global Airborne InSAR For more info look up http://gipsy.jpl.nasa.gov/igdg

24. Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Modeling and Forecasting • NASA/ESE supports through the HPCC program an advanced modeling effort based upon the precepts of geocomplexity and the integration of space geodetic, remote sensing, seismic, and geologic data for natural hazards research and disaster management • Goal is to understand the earthquake process through a program of new observations, numerical simulations, and theory • Understanding these data will require advanced new computational methodologies to simulate the physical processes involved

25. EARTHSCOPE contributions to Earthquake Volcanic Eruption Modeling and Forecasting (con’t) • The Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) component of EARTHSCOPE relies in part on systematic observations of earth deformation and strain via GPS, InSAR, and Borehole Strainmeters • Numerical simulations indicate that the data obtained by EARTHSCOPE / PBO will have the resolving power to reveal extremely detailed, critical new information about the dynamics of the multi-scale, space-time processes associated with earthquakes. • In any observational campaign, the development of simulation technology for complex nonlinear geosystems must go hand-in-hand with the observations if the maximum information gain is to be realized. • New observations together with new results from simulations suggest that space-time patterns and correlations are the keys to understanding the physics of complex geosystems such as the earthquake process.

26. LAUNCHED FEB 23,1999 INTERNATIONAL GEOPOTENTIAL FIELD & GPS REMOTE SENSING MISSIONS LAUNCHED MAR 5, 2002 ØRSTED GRACE LAUNCHED FEB 23,1999 LAUNCHED NOV 21, 2000 LAUNCHED JULY 15,2000 SAC-C CHAMP

27. GRACE Will Track Monthly Changes in Mass Distribution within the Hydrosphere, Atmosphere, and Lithosphere Oceanography: Measurements of Gravity + Radar Altimetry Absolute Surface Currents Deep Ocean Currents & Mass Transport Steric Component of Long Term Sea Level Change Mass and Energy Flux Continental Hydrology: Measurements of Gravity + in-situ data Evapo-transpiration & Ground Water Changes Snow Loads Glaciology: Measurements of Gravity + Ice-Sheet Altimetry Polar Ice Sheet Mass Balance Solid Earth Sciences & Geodesy: Measurements of Gravity + in-situ data Mantle & Lithospheric Density Variations Precise Positioning and reference frame maintenance

28. Enabling Earth System Prediction TODAY Goals for 2010 5-Day forecast at >90%* 7-10 Day forecast at 75%* 3 day rainfall forecast routine Hurricane landfall +/-100Km at 2-3 days Air quality forecast at 2 days 6-12 month seasonal prediction routine;12-24 months experimental 10 year climate forecasts experimental; moderate to high confidence in forcing & response factors Continuous monitoring of surface deformation in vulnerable regions with millimeter accuracy Improved temporal dimension of earthquake & volcanic eruption forecasts Improve post-eruption hazard assessment 3-Day forecast at 93%* 7 Day forecast at 62%* 3 day rainfall forecast not achievable Hurricane landfall +/-400Km at 2-3 days Air quality day by day 6-12 month seasonal prediction experimental; achieved an understanding of El Nino mechanics Decadal climate prediction with coarse models and significant uncertainties in forcing and response factors Demonstrate centimeter-level measurement of land deformation Accurate characterization of long-term tectonic motions, but no short-term earthquake forecast capability Accurate characterization of volcanic activity, but no long-term prediction accuracy Weather Climate Natural Hazards * Accuracy refers to sea level pressure forecasts over Northern Hemisphere during winter.

29. Summary • We had the most successful year in the 25 year history of Earth science at NASA. We are enabling unprecedented views and understanding of the Earth system • We must fulfill our commitments to the Nation by completing successfully the current phase of our program • ESE has a plan for the next decade that the Administration has agreed to fund. We need to move aggressively to implement this plan, answer the science questions, and provide those answers in forms useful to the Nation • ESE continues to rely on its partners in other agencies, in industry, and in academia for mission success