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Livestock and Land Use

Livestock and Land Use. Creating a simple model of livestock population growth to influence the output of an urban growth model. The Objective. Provide input to SLUETH model SLUETH predicts increases in urban lands based on historical spatial trends

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Livestock and Land Use

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  1. Livestock and Land Use Creating a simple model of livestock population growth to influence the output of an urban growth model.

  2. The Objective • Provide input to SLUETH model • SLUETH predicts increases in urban lands based on historical spatial trends • Takes “resistance” layer, areas that are considered to be recalcitrant • Objective is to determine method of evaluating resistance of agricultural lands

  3. Livestock/Land Use Interaction • Assumptions: • animal agriculture has an influence on ag. land uses (pasture, hay, crops) and vice-versa. • If a relationship exists, then we can relate livestock population trends to resistance to urbanization. • Test Assumption: • Perform regression analysis of Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model county livestock and land use figures to determine if there is a relationship

  4. The Main Players • 3 Land Uses of interest: hay, row crop and pasture • Statistically significant relationships exist between beef, dairy and broiler populations and target land uses. • Swine and layers have less widespread populations, so they are not used.

  5. The Mathematical Relationships • Use populations as independent variables in LSR for hay, pasture and row crops A = m1Beef + m2Dairy + m3Broiler + b

  6. Regression Analysis * All livestock types add significant benefit to regression, all have p-value << 0.01 • Hay: R2 = 0.61 • Row: R2 = 0.52 • Pasture: R2 = 0.70

  7. Creating a Resistance Layer • Calculate regression predicted value of each land use based on current population. (A2002) • Analyze population trends for 3 livestock of interest – predict future population by best fit curve • predicted population into regression equations – solve these for the hay, pasture, and row crops needed. (Ap) • Calculate ratio of predicted acreage to current acreage needed for each county. This ratio becomes multiplier for resistance value. R = X * (Ap/A2002) + N Where X, N are “calibrated”

  8. Predicted Land Use Ratios

  9. Reversing the Process (sortof) 1. Can/Should we take the output of the land change model and adjust our population predictions based on this data? • Regression relationship established between acreage and livestock populations can go the other way • Feedback loop may be used to reduce/increase populations 2. Should we simply let this inform us of the types of BMPs needed? • May emphasize transport or other BMPs to address nutrient surplus

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