Joint Planning & Development Office Evaluations & Analysis Preliminary Scenario Analyses

1. Joint Planning & Development Office Evaluations & Analysis Preliminary Scenario Analyses Strategy Assessment to Provide a Basis for Prioritizing Investments in a National Plan Dr. Sherry Borener - Director - Evaluations and Analysis Office

2. Strategy Evaluation Method Strategy Development Decisions EAO Strategy Impact Characterization Strategy Impact (Metrics) Strategy Evaluation Direct NAS Effects (ACES, LMInet, MLM) Define Future Schedule and Conditions (AvDemand) Safety, Environmental (NIRS, INM) Security, Economic Impacts (GRA AMMS & NACBA, Volpe) Validation Multi-year Consumer, Carrier Ramifications (NAS Strategy Simulator, DoC) Existing Data (e.g. ETMS Schedules)

3. Overview of LMINET • Fast-time NAS-wide queuing model • Uses a flight schedule covering 600+ commercial airports (derived from OAG), 3000+ GA airports (derived from NPIAS), plus international airports (derived from OAG) • Calculates delays at 102 airports and en route capacity constraints at 995 sectors; determined by the flight schedule, flight trajectories, airport runway configuration, and airport weather conditions

4. ACES Agents and MessagesACES Agents interact like real-world people and systems National Flow Management AllUpdated Time CCMessages to all agents except Flight and AOC Congestion Alert Airport TFM Terminal TFM Regional TFM Regional TFM Regional TFM Terminal TFM Airport TFM Inter-TFM Restriction Projected RW Times Inter-TFM Restriction Inter-TFM Restriction Inter-TFM Restriction Airport Acceptance Rate Arrival and Departure Queuing Data Arrival and Departure Queuing Data Airport Acceptance Rate Inter-TFM Restriction Intra-TFM Restriction Intra-TFM Restriction Intra-TFM Restriction Mod Gate Departure Time or Takeoff time Request Mod Gate Departure Time, New Flight Plan, Cancel Flight Takeoff Sequence Airport Control Terminal Control Regional Control Regional Control Regional Control Terminal Control Airport Control Landing Sequence Mod Departure Fix Crossing Time AOC Mod Actual Takeoff Time AC State (1min) AC State (1min), Center Boundary Crossing AC State (1min), Terminal boundary Crossing Boundary Crossing Mod Landing Time Mod Maneuver Mod Maneuver Mod Maneuver Initiate 4DOF flight at Meter Fix End 4DOF Flight at Meter Fix • Receive all: • - Inter-TFM Restrictions • Intra-TFM Restrictions • Mod Gate or Takeoff time • Mod Cancel Flight • Congestion Alerts • - All Flight Mods Created 5 min before Gate Departure Ends at Arrival Gate Any flight modifications sent to National Flow Management and AOC ACES Build 2

5. Futures Scenarios Evaluation Process • Assumptions of inputs • Develop Scenario modeling assumptions • Generate output performance metrics • Review results and assess any adjustments that need to be made to ensure modeled scenario is • realistic and • reflects futures working group’s intentions. • Iterate through steps 1-4 until step 4 is satisfied

6. Assumptions for Futures Scenario • Set of futures. For each case • Model the implications to show what it means for the NAS • Develop model assumptions and parameters to reflect characteristics of the scenario • Passenger and cargo demand scenario • Fleet mix and aircraft types • Business models • Level of international flights • Size of aircraft • Growth • Travel time • Scheduling impacts • Workload levels within the NAS • Environment and weather

7. Futures Scenario Asia’s Century • U.S. has won the war on terror • but lost its economic and technological leadership • Slow economic growth • Declining industrial and transportation infrastructure • Domestic vacation travel and leisure is greatly reduced

8. Passengers 1.8-2.4X Increase of over 10 passengers per flight Shift in passengers per flight (e.g., A380, reverse RJ trend, higher load factor) • Biz shift • Smaller aircraft, more airports • Biz shift • 2% shift to micro jets 2014 2025 20?? • 2004 Baseline • Current Flight Schedule • Current Capacities Future Environment and Demand Flights 1.4-3X ~3X Note: Not to scale TAF Growth Ratios, Higher Rate ~2X Baseline Values Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Growth Projection TAF Growth Ratios, Lower Rate • 2014 and later Baseline analysis will use OEP & FACT Capacities 1X 2004

9. Unconstrained CapacityConstrained 2025 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 1 0.5 2X 2025 2004 2014 Example Performance Analyses CAPACITY: Future Airspace Overload COST: Lost Airline Profit • Shortfalls in capacity lead to significant economic consequences. ENVIRONMENT: Increased Noise Impact SAFETY: Fatal Accident Rate Must Decrease to Maintain Current Safety Record • Major capacity increases using existing paradigm lead to significant environmental and safety issues

10. ACES 2x simulation • ACES Video of a day in the NAS

11. AvAnalyst™ Seagull Technology Airspace Loading: Mid-Day EST Demand for Airspace Snapshot at ~1pm EDT Baseline Demand (2002) Future 2X Demand Sector Color Loading index: Yellow: 80 – 125% of sector capacity Red: 125 - 200% of sector capacity Black: > 200% of sector capacity VAMS ACES Simulation B 2.0.3 Unconstrained Airports & Airspace 250 Airports, 24 hour simulation Future growth based on Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) 2002: ~27K flights total Future 2X: ~54K flights total

12. Sector Color Loading index: Yellow: 80 – 125% of sector capacity Red: 125 - 200% of sector capacity Black: > 200% of sector capacity AvAnalyst™ Seagull Technology Airspace Loading: Subdivide Sectors / More Controllers 2X Future Demand Current Sector Capacities Baseline Demand (2002) Current Sector Capacities Snapshot at ~1pm EDT 2X Future Demand 3X the number of Sectors and Controllers 2X the number of Sectors and Controllers

13. NAS Transformation in Environment FEEDBACK TO THE TRANSFORMATION PROCESS IMPACTS ON SAFETY CAPACITY ENVIRONMENT ECONOMICS Emissions Inventory Grid Noise Exposure Map Simulate NAS Using ACES

14. EAD Metrics ATS Attributes Metrics • Metrics capture the potential benefits of future strategies for key ATS attributes such as Efficiency, Safety, Environment, Security, etc. • The common denominator for all EAD metrics is the forecast total number of aircraft operations. • The use of a common metric allows evaluation of the benefit tradeoffs across multiple ATS attributes. Current System Future Concept Efficiency Delays Safety Accidents Environment Emissions # of Operations

15. Today’s ATS Operational Concept Baseline En route Controller descent voice climb Terminal takeoff landing Controller Controller Surface taxi taxi Dispatch Dispatch gate gate Controller Controller

16. A Possible Future Operational Concept En route Controller voice Terminal Digital Controller Controller Surface gate gate descent climb takeoff landing taxi taxi Dispatch Dispatch Controller Controller