MDMP-M Step 1: Mission Analysis

1. Reference: MNF SOP Version 2.9 MDMP-M Step 1: Mission Analysis USPACOM Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT) and Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell (DJTFAC) 13 June 2014

2. Purpose: To describe how Mission Analysis fits into the Military Decision-Making Process in a multinational context Applicability Range of Military Operations Interchangeable with all types of country/service-specific military planning processes (JMAP, JOPP, MCPP, MDMP) Reference Multinational Force Standing Operating Procedures (MNF SOP), Version 2.9 Overview 2

3. Gain knowledge of the Starting Conditions, the Process, and Results of the Mission Analysis step Increased understanding of the sub-steps of the Mission Analysis step Increased confidence in how to apply MDMP-M during TE-25, future exercises, and real-world operations Objectives 3

4. Formal Presentation Interactive approach Questions and comments are encouraged Evaluation: We will utilize MDMP-M as the MNF Planning Process for most groups during TE-25 Method 4

5. MDMP-M Steps

6. Mission Analysis • Starting Conditions • Initial Commander’s Appreciation and Operational Design has been completed • OIPE summary/brief published • Warning Order #1 has been issued • Results • Refined OIPE • Staff Estimates • CCIRs • Mission Statement • Revised Commander’s Intent • Commander’s Guidance for COA Development • Warning Order #2 is issued

7. Mission Analysis Steps • Analyze HHQ Mission and Intent • Determine Known Facts, Current Status, and Conditions • Develop Assumptions • Determine Operational Limitations • Determine COGs, Decisive Points & Critical Factors • Identify Operational-level Tasks • Conduct Initial MNF Force Structure • Conduct Initial Risk Assessment • Determine Military End State , Military Objectives, and Supporting Effects (SE) • Develop the Mission Statement and refine the Commander’s Intent • Determine initial CCIRs (FFIRs, PIRs, EEFIs) • Develop and conduct a Mission Analysis Brief • Review/Refine Commander’s Appreciation & Operational Design • Publish Commander’s Planning Guidance for COA Development and Issue WARNORD #2

8. Step 1: Analyze HHQ Mission and Intent Need clarification? Ask the HHQ’s staff! • The Commander and Staff are all involved in understanding where the MNF fits into the larger national/strategic framework of the operation • Goal: Understand HHQ’s mission and guidance (WHY) • Examples: Support to National Plans, Termination criteria, limitations, National caveats • Goal: Understand CTF’s role in HHQ’s intent and concept of operations • Military End State, effects, tasks • Assigned area of operations, assets • Operational timeline • Goal: Understand HHQ’s guidance/plan for strategic communications

9. Step 2: Determine Known Facts, Current Status, and Conditions MNF Staff should provide any new facts as they emerge to planners • A Fact is a statement of information known to be true • Status and Conditions represent the Commander’s assessment of the situation and updated OIPE • These elements establish the factual framework for the remainder of Mission Analysis Sub-Steps • Includes timing of operation • Timeline for planning • All members of the CPG must review higher orders, intelligence, Strategic Guidance, and other sources of reference to provide accurate inputs to this Sub-Step • Development of Staff Estimates continues

10. Step 3: Develop Assumptions • Assumptions replace missing or unknown facts • To be valid, an assumption must be logical, realistic, and essential to planning • Coordinate assumptions with NCEs and civilian agencies if assumptions involve those partners • Assumptions should drive staff queries (Requests For Information, RFIs) to convert them into facts If an assumption is false, the plan could be invalid. If an issue does not have this effect, it should not be an assumption

11. Step 3: Assumption Examples • Good: • Phase I will be declared at strategic warning • CTF will operate under UN mandate • Coalition forces will operate under parallel C2 structure • Marginal: • Friendly forces will operate in a C4I limited environment • Expect no use of bases in Country X • Poor: • Demonstrated resolve and readiness are decisive factors in Red’s decision-making • Kinetic attacks may be proposed • CTF will not allow third party countries to interfere with sea, air, or space lanes of communication to allies or warfighting commands *Note: Assumptions should be 1) worded as facts and 2) do not involve simple answers from members of the CPG

12. Step 4: Develop Operational Limitations • Operational Limitations are things that limit the Commander’s ability to act • Constraint – Something that must be done • Dictates an action • Example: Must begin operations at a particular time • Restraint – Something that must not be done • Restricts freedom of action • Example: Must not operate in territorial air/sea space. • A Commander may include constraints and restraints in the initial assessment, but they are most often derived from higher authorities Disseminate early and revise as often as required

13. Step 5: Determine COGs, Critical Factors and Decisive Points COG Analysis looks at both friendly forces and the threat or adversary forces • Center of Gravity (COG) • defined as the source of power that provides moral or physical strength, freedom of action, or will to act • Made up of Critical Factors (Capabilities, Requirements, and Vulnerabilities) • COGs may change during a campaign • COG Analysis is a two-part, complementary process involving the C-2 (Intelligence) and the CPG

14. Step 5 (continued): Critical Factors 14 • Critical capabilities • Crucial enablers for a COG to function • Capabilities may be actions or properties essential to the adversary’s or threat’s end-state goal • Critical requirements • Conditions, resources, or means • Elements that operationalize a critical capability • Critical vulnerabilities • One or more of the COG’s critical requirements that, if deficient or eroded by direct or indirect attack, will undermine a critical capability • A critical vulnerability may become a decisive point

15. Step 5: COG Analysis

16. Step 5: COG Tool A Decisive Point is a geographic place, specific key event, critical factor, or function that, when acted upon, allows a Commander to gain a marked advantage (or influence) over an adversary or contributes materially to achieving success.

17. Step 6: Identify Operational-level Tasks Essential Tasks are listed in the Mission Statement • Tasks direct friendly action by individuals or organizations. They must be: • Clearly defined • Measurable • 3 Types of Tasks • Specified = assigned by HHQ/Strategic Commander • Implied = tasks necessary for accomplishment of specified tasks or mission • Essential = mission critical

18. Step 7: Initial Force Structure Analysis More specific force requirements will be determined after COA Development & COA Analysis • Review capabilities provided by HHQ for planning • Locations and availability • Reserves and timing • Transportation • Determine broad force structure • Tie forces to tasks • Command relationships • Required components • Component LNOs / planners • Identify capability shortfalls

19. Step 7: Task Analysis & Assignment

20. Step 8: Initial Risk Assessment • Risk assessment involves the balance between: • Protecting the force • Protecting the mission • Take into account potential adverse impacts, and the probability and severity of those impacts • Identify potential mitigating or minimizing methods • Identify Commanders’ (MNF and HHQ) tolerance for risk • Incorporate staff assessments of situation and environment • Understand the role of time in incurring risk Determine whether limitations, assigned tasks or assumptions create risk that has not been previously identified or accepted

21. Step 9: Determine Military End State, Military Objectives & Supporting Effects Which objectives define success? Which effects achieve these objectives? • A systematic review to determine the Military End State through the identification of Military Objectives and the Supporting Effects • Military End State = The set of required conditions that defines achievement of the military objectives. Mission termination • Military Objectives = clear military goals to be achieved in support of the operation • Supporting Effects = The conditions, which if achieved, support the attainment of the operational Military Objectives • Steps • Review conditions that will signal that the MNF is no longer needed • Identify Military Objectives that support attainment of these conditions • Identify and quantify the Supporting Effects that attain these objectives

22. Step 9: Objectives and Supporting Effects

23. Step 10: Develop the Mission Statement Example of a “Restated Mission” CTF-A deploys immediately to JOA Blue to deter Red forces from attacking Country Gray. CTF-A defends Country Gray and Country Green from Red attack beginning D-Day, H-Hour; defeats and ejects Red forces; degrades or eliminates terrorist activities originating in Country Red; and provides post-conflict support to stabilization and reconstruction operations in Red, Gray, and Green as directed in order to protect the sovereignty of Gray and Green and restore stability in the region. On order, CTF-A secures Country Red to enable installation of new government and military leaders. Who, What, When, Where and Why

24. Step 10: Commander’s Intent, Success Criteria • Commander’s Intent is a narrative of purpose, method and end state • It reflects the MNF Commander’s personal style of communication • Reiterates OIPE, problem framework and Operational Design and incorporates preceding mission analysis steps • Initial Mission Success Criteria are broad and directly linked to achievement of Military Objectives • These criteria used to measure attainment of the Military End State via the accomplishment of tasks are “Measures of Performance” (MOPs) and “Measures of Effectiveness” (MOEs) Restated Mission and Commander’s Intent permit planners to determine mission success criteria

25. Step 11: Determine Initial CCIRs CCIRs are not static • Commander’s Critical Information Requirements (CCIRs) • “Information requirements identified by the Commander as being critical to timely information management and the decision-making process that affect successful mission accomplishment.” • PIRs (Priority Intelligence Requirements) • Adversary or Operational Environment Intelligence • Drive intelligence collection and production • FFIRs (Friendly Force Information Requirements) • Information the commander and staff need to understand regarding the status of friendly force and supporting capabilities • identify the information about the mission, troops and support available, and time available • EEFIs (Essential Elements of Friendly Information) • EEFIs are not CCIRs, unless specifically approved by the Commander • Establishes an element of information to protect, rather than collect

26. Step 12: Prepare Mission Analysis Brief

27. Step 12: Prepare Mission Analysis Brief

28. Step 13: Review/Refine Commander’s Appreciation & Operational Design Remember: Operational Design is the conception and construction of the framework that underpins a campaign or major operation plan and its subsequent execution • Step One: Review Mission Analysis (Steps 2-12) in light of original Commander’s Appreciation • Reword or refine Commander’s Appreciation as necessary • Step Two: Further develop Operational Design • Incorporate new design elements including instruments of National Power (DIME) • Consider interaction with non-CTF or MNF forces, inter-agencies

29. Step 14: Publish Commander’s Planning Guidance for COA Development, and issue WARNORD #2 • Commander’s Planning Guidance will include: • Direction for COA Development • Role of interagencies, IHC, and transition planning • Direction for Information Operations • Commander’s risk tolerance • Warning Order #2 will include: • Mission Statement • Refined Commander’s Intent • Military End State and Military Objectives • Tasks • MNF Force Structure • Commander’s Planning Guidance Reiterate: “What are we trying to accomplish is…”

30. Mission Analysis Steps • Analyze HHQ Mission and Intent • Determine Known Facts, Current Status, and Conditions • Develop Assumptions • Determine Operational Limitations • Determine COGs, Decisive Points & Critical Factors • Identify Operational-level Tasks • Conduct Initial MNF Force Structure • Conduct Initial Risk Assessment • Determine Military End State , Military Objectives, and Supporting Effects (SE) • Develop the Mission Statement and refine the Commander’s Intent • Determine initial CCIRs (FFIRs, PIRs, EEFIs) • Develop and conduct a Mission Analysis Brief • Review/Refine Commander’s Appreciation & Operational Design • Publish Commander’s Planning Guidance for COA Development and Issue WARNORD #2 30

31. MDMP-M Steps

32. Questions and Discussion