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3.3. Evolution of mobile communications

3.3. Evolution of mobile communications. Beginning of 2G. Beginning of. Source: ITU. Source: ITU. Source: ITU. Source: ITU. Ovum. Source:. UMTS +. 3-4 years – transition period. R. R. Service evolution from GSM to UMTS. 200 4 +. 2002. 2000. UMTS. UMTS. ä. Basic telephony.

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3.3. Evolution of mobile communications

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  1. 3.3. Evolution of mobile communications

  2. Beginning of 2G Beginning of Source: ITU

  3. Source: ITU

  4. Source: ITU

  5. Source: ITU

  6. Ovum

  7. Source:

  8. UMTS + 3-4 years – transition period R R Service evolution from GSM to UMTS 2004+ 2002 2000 UMTS UMTS ä Basic telephony ä Basic Telephony GSM enhancements GSM Enhancements ä Mob. multimedia & asymmetric services 2000 ä Mobile Multimedia and ä Packet data (GPRS <= 180 kbps) ä Packet Data Asymmetric Services ä Circuit/packet data (GPRS <= 180 kbps, ä Circuit / Packet Data Rural <=384 kbps GSM +EDGE <= 500 kbps) GSM Today Rural <= 384 kbps ä Basic telephony ä Circuit data (+ EDGE <=500 kbps) ä (Sub-)Urban <= 512 kbps Basic Telephony ä Circuit Data (Sub-)Urban <= 512 kbps ä Circuit data 28,8 kbps, (HSCSD) ä Circuit Data 28.8 kbps (+EDGE < 300 kbps*) Low Range <= 2 Mbps ä CAMEL home services support (HSCSD) ä Low range <= 2 Mbps Standardised Capabilities ä CAMEL home services ä Standardised bearer & supplem. services ä ä Standardised bearer & ä Virtual Home support Standardized capabilities suppl. services ä Environment SIM toolkit, Mobile execution environment ä Virtual Home Environment ä SIM Toolkit, Mobile in addition Execution ä New Capacity (Spectrum) Environment GSM GSM HSCSD: High Speed Circuit Switched Data CAMEL: Customised Applications for Mobile Enhanced Logic SIM - Subscriber Identity Module GPRS: General Packet Radio System EDGE: Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution

  9. UMTS Development • 1995 - Inception of concept • January 1998 - standardization by ETSI • First quarter of 2003 - commercialized launch FOMA (Freedom of Mobile Multimedia Access) network (i-mode) in Japan by NTT DoCoMo and • Phase 1 trial launches in nine other countries • June 2004 - UMTS (WCDMA) has grown to be used by more than 5 million customers worldwide and is growing faster than GSM at the same point in its development timeline history (3G Americas Report, June 2004) • December 2004 - ten million customers worldwide (3G Americas Report, June 2004) • End of 2006 – 63 million customers in Europe (Ovum) • To 2009 – 270 million customers in Europe (Analysis Research)

  10. Global UMTS Network Status From EMC World Cellular Database & UMTS Forum (June, 2004) • No. of 3G Networks in Service - 57 (in 21 countries) • 93 operators in 37 other countries now in pre-commercial status of planning, trialing, or awarded UMTS licenses for their 3G deployments.

  11. UMTS Deployment NORWAY NETWORK LICENSES AWARDED (License has been awarded, but licensee currently shows no inclination to deploy network) • Hi3G Access Norway - Q4 2005 LICENSES REVOKED OR SOLD (Licensee/operator involuntarily/voluntarily hands back license) • Broadband Mobile - Nov 2002 (Declaration of bankruptcy) • Tele2 Norway LICENSES TENDERED (Government has set a time schedule with proposed tender dates and number of licenses) • -tba- License Tender - Dec 2004 NETWORKS PLANNED OR IN DEPLOYMENT (Licensee is in planning stages of deploying network or is actually building the network) • Norway Netcom - Q4 2004 • Norway Telenor Mobil - Q3 2004

  12. The Growing Demands for Wireless Data Source: Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein (DrKW) Equity Research • 2010 • video traffic – 7.7 Mbit/s • data traffic – 6.8 Mbit/s • voice traffic – five-fold increase • In 1991 typical user of wireline data used only 1 Mb/month • In 1999 - around 200 Mb/month

  13. Growth in UMTS Terminal Availability Source: “The Evolution of UMTS – 3GPP Release 5 and Beyond” (3G Americas Report, June 2004)

  14. Innovative mobile devices ... Source: Siemens

  15. Music Video Video Conference Video Telephone Mobile TV i-mode – an example of 3G network IMT 2000 (3G) Increasing bandwidth Java Colored LCD Open standards Game Pictures i-mode launch Home- page e-mail Feb. 1999 Fall, 1999 Winter, 1999 Fall, 2000 Spring, 2001 Source: NTT DoCoMo, Siemens

  16. i-mode subscriber growth & percentage of DoCoMo subscribers (‘000 / %) 10000 30% 26,8% 23,4% 25% 8000 21,7% 8289 19,1% 7114 20% 6510 15,6% 6000 5603 13,3% 15% 4463 4000 3743 10% 2000 5% 0 0% Jan. 00 Feb. 00 Mar 00 Apr 00 Mai 00 Jun 00 i i-mode information sites (absolute) 20.000 18.273 • # of Voluntary Sites • # of Official Sites 15.609 15.000 12.940 10.000 10.000 8.224 6.357 5.052 5.000 312 341 421 470 501 519 578 0 Jan 00 Feb 00 Mar 00 Apr 00 Mai 00 Jun 00 Jul 00 i-mode – subscriber and information site evolution • Number of subscribers raised from 0 to 5.6 million within one year • Number of sites increased to 7.000 sites within one year Success in mobile data is driven by open access Source: Goldman Sachs, ING Barings, Communications International; Siemens

  17. UMTS Standardization (3GPP) • 3GPP, the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (established in December 1998) is the international standards body that develops, publishes and maintains standards for third generation wireless. • The current Organizational Partners are ETSI (Europe), ARIB (Japan), ETRI (Korea), CWTS (China) and others. As well as the standards bodies, 3GPP is attended by all of the major manufacturers and operators (“Market Representation Partners”,all 200 members), including NTT DoCoMo, Alcatel, Cingular Wireless, Ericsson, Lucent, Motorola, Nokia, Nortel, Qualcomm, Siemens, T-Mobile and Vodafone - the work will include of the 3GPP.

  18. UMTS Standardization (3GPP) – Cntd. • The original scope of 3GPP was to produce globally applicable Technical Specifications and Technical Reports for a 3rd Generation Mobile System based on evolved GSM core networks and the radio access technologies that they support (i.e., Universal Terrestrial Radio Access (UTRA) both Frequency Division Duplex (FDD) and Time Division Duplex (TDD) modes). 

  19. Evolution of UMTS Technical Specifications to Release 5 (Rel’5) of the 3GPP Release 1999 (R’99) in April 1999 - the initial standards for UMTS were completed by 3GPP. These standards are the basis for a majority of the current commercially deployed UMTS systems Release 4 (Rel’4) in April 2001 was standardized in 3GPP, which provided some improvements of the UMTS transport, radio interface and architecture. Rel’5 of UMTS was completed in March 2002 - next significant evolution phase of UMTS. UMTS Rel’5 will provide higher speed wireless data services with vastly improved spectral efficiencies through the High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA) feature. In addition to HSDPA, UMTS Rel’5 introduces the IP Multimedia System (IMS) architecture for integrated multimedia applications UMTS Rel’5 also introduces the IP UTRAN concept to realize network efficiencies and reduce network costs. June 2004 - Cingular Wireless (USA) has announced a UMTS trial in Atlanta which includes a testing of HSDPA 2005 - NTT DoCoMo is already planning to launch HSDPA in FOMA (Freedom of Mobile Multimedia Access) network

  20. Release 5 (Rel’5) of the 3GPP High Speed Downlink Packet Access(HSDPA) offers significantly higher data capacity and data user speeds on the downlink (theoretically up to 14 Mbps peak) compared to R’99 UMTS through the use of very dynamic adaptive modulation, coding and scheduling with Hybrid Automatic Retransmission Request (H-ARQ) processing. Through HSDPA, operators will benefit from a technology that will provide improved end-user experience for web access, file download and streaming services. Wireless Broadband access to the Internet, intranet and corporate LAN will benefit greatly from HSDPA.

  21. Release 5 (Rel’5) of the 3GPP (Cntd.) In addition to HSDPA, UMTS Rel’5 introduces the IP Multimedia System (IMS) architecture that promises to greatly enhance the end-user experience for Integrated multimedia applications and offer the mobile operator an efficient means for offering such services. The IMS enables new and more advanced multimedia applications for operators (including VoIP), the ability for these services to interact and the ability to fully integrate real-time, near real-time as well as non-real time services. UMTS Rel’5 also introduces the IP UTRAN concept to realize network efficiencies and reduce network costs. IP UTRAN uses IP as a transport protocol to realize network efficiencies that reduce the cost of delivering traffic and can provide wireless traffic routing flexibility.

  22. Technology Challenge for Mobility Deployment 2000-2006 Future Deployment Mobility Vehicular UMTS FDD 2.5G 2G Beyond 3G Large Area coverage up to 384 kbit/s GSM GPRS EDGE UMTS TDD MMAC Pedestrian BWA IEEE 802.16/a/e WiMax Indoor up to 2 Mbit/s Bluetooth BRANs Wireless LAN IEEE 802.11a/b/g Wi-Fi Portable Cordless DECT Fixed FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) 1 10 100 0.1 Source: Siemens Mbit/s

  23. Various wireless technologies with their bit rates and suitabilityfor users moving at different speeds

  24. Evolution of mobile networks from 2G to B3G

  25. Mobile messaging market Increasing importance of multimedia applications • SMSC/MMSC supplier revenues [€m], worldwide SMSC: Short Messaging Service Center MMSC: Multimedia Messaging Service Center Source: UBS Warburg, 2002

  26. Subscriptions worldwide (millions) 1800 Mobile Fixed Mobile Internet Fixed Internet Mobile subscriptions 1600 1400 1200 1000 Mobile internet subscriptions 800 600 400 200 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 Mobile access will dominate Source: Siemens

  27. 15% other services 5% Personal Organizer 5% Mini Newspaper 6% Mobile Banking 40 9% Video Telephony/Conf. Mobile Data 23% 35 77% Individual Applications 9% Multimedia Messaging 30 25 11% Booking & Reservation ARPU (Euro/month) 20 12% Map-based Traffic Info 15 10 14% Map-based Local Info 5 0 14% Internet Browsing YE01 YE02 YE03 YE04 YE05 Year 23% Enterprise Applications Enterprise Applications Mobile Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) potential Western European ARPU (Euro/ Month) SMS Voice Data (excl. SMS) MMC Source: Siemens

  28. M-Com- merce & interactiveservices Context establish- ment (Portal) Mobilenetwork access Content-Indep.- Services Content mgmt & publ. Internetaccess Payment services Applica- tions Content creation End-user location Network M-commerce Entertainment Location Services Operators’ ARPU Business Solutions Mobile Internet Mobile Portal Voice only t Applications are critical Source: Siemens, Durlacher Research

  29. European Average Revenue Per User for mobile voice and mobile data € / month 70 60 50 Mobile Data 40 30 20 Mobile Voice 10 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 • Advertising ARPU • M-Commerce ARPU • Mobile data ARPU • Voice ARPU Source: Credit Suisse First Boston, Siemens

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