Risk Management for Highway Design

1. Jeffrey Shaw, P.E. Safety & Design TST Risk Management for Highway Design

3. “RISK” A factor, element, or course involving uncertainty regarding harm, loss, danger or damage

4. Risk Management Test for Design • Does your agency have adequate and dynamic processes in place to identify existing and new risks faced? • Does your agency have the right balance of arrangements in place to deal with these risks? • Does your agency have an adequate framework for risk analysis and evaluation to support decision-making processes? Source: "Guide to Risk Assessment and Allocation for Highway Construction Management", FHWA-PL-06-032

5. Risk Management Characteristics • Explicitly addresses uncertainty • Based on the best available information • Part of the decision-making process • Systematic, structured, and an integral part of organizational processes • Dynamic, iterative, responsive to change, and capable of continual improvement and enhancement • Accounts for human factors • Transparent and inclusive

6. Risk-oriented Highway Design • Not a new concept • May involve different approaches and viewpoints • Who or what is “at risk” and what is the core motivation • Safety of Facility Users (i.e. motorists, pedestrians, etc.)? • Road Agency (tort liability concerns)? • Underlying theme is addressing the risk • Implication is that relying solely on standards does not guarantee a facility free of risk • Identifying/defining the risk is essential for managing the risk

7. Fundamental Aspects • Understanding Design Risk involves: • Knowing the basis and assumptions underlying the standards • Defining the conditions of the project • Physical • Traffic • Safety

8. Identify & Characterize the Degree of Risk • What are the variables that influence Risk? • Exposure • Traffic Volume • Location • Duration • Deviation from Nominal • Degree of variance • Severity of Outcome • Possible worst-case scenario

9. Assessing Design Risks • Assessing the probability and severity of adverse consequences associated with activities, recommendations or designs. • Does not need to be a complicated quantitative assessment, but rather a practical assessment based on experience, engineering judgment and historical standard of practice. • To the extent possible, risks should be quantified, both on the basis of their potential probability and for their potential consequences.

10. Risk-based Safety Analysis Tools • Safety Effects Studies • horizontal alignment • vertical alignment • cross-section • intersections • IHSDM (ihsdm.org) • Includes crash prediction, design consistency and capacity calc • Highway Safety Manual

11. Risk-based Safety Analysis Tools • Latest Research and Best Practices • Design-stage Road Safety Audits

12. NOMINAL SAFETY examined in reference to compliance with standards, warrants, guidelines and sanctioned design procedures SUBSTANTIVE SAFETY actual or expected crash frequency and severity for a highway or roadway segment or intersection Safety Performance Evolution

13. RSAs Add Value to a Project • Compromises and constraints are a normal part of transportation budgeting • RSAs demonstrate the safety implications of roadway elements • RSAs ensure that safety is an explicit consideration, and that safety does not “fall through the cracks” • RSA focus corresponds to stage of project

14. HIGH VALUE! Early Stage RSAs • PRECONSTRUCTION • planning / feasibility • preliminary (draft) design • detailed design • CONSTRUCTION • work zones • pre-opening • EXISTING • in-operation reviews

15. Integrating RSA + VE • Consider the sequence scenarios of conducting both an RSA and a VE study on the same project • Possible Outcomes: • RSA conducted before VE • VE conducted before RSA • RSA and VE conducted in concert, with separate teams of individuals • http://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/rsa/resources.htm

16. Considering Risk of Design Exceptions • Evaluating design exceptions in determining whether: • An appropriate criterion for a CORRIDOR is less than the minimum normally applicable (design speed, roadway width) • An appropriate design value to use at a LOCATION is less than the minimum standard (curve radius, gradient)

17. Common Denominator of Highway Design • Effectively dealing with the “TRADE-OFFS” • Adding lanes vs. minimizing property takes • Clear zones vs. preserving mature trees • Property access vs. high mobility • Designing for vehicle traffic vs. accommodating other user groups

18. Design Controls with High-Reward Potential • Functional Classification • Design Speed • Design Traffic • Design Vehicle • Design User

19. Design Risk Management Process

20. Link Between Risk Mgt and Flexible Design • Helps deliver both a PROJECT and a PROGRAM • Underlies a National Priority (FHWA and AASHTO) • Allows consideration of a wider range of alternatives and design options • Facilitates cost-effectiveness, with emphasis on increasing safety & efficiency

21. Recognition of Risk-Reward Basis “It is not feasible or intended for highway projects to be entirely risk-free, as there are potential rewards to the project when risk is taken.“

22. Using Risk Mgt to Improve Design • “In many cases, the risks associated with decisions can be mitigated with inclusion or enhancement of other features, which may offset the risk.” • “The evaluation of risk is an interdisciplinary process requiring involvement of project team members and stakeholders based on the specific issues and an evaluation of risk tolerability.”

23. A Peer Model • Requires a Plan/Process • Identify Related Risks • Analyze in terms of Severity and Likelihood • Decide and Document • Permits either Quantitative or Qualitative Assessments

24. NEW Related Training & Technical Assistance FY2010 NHI #380095 Highway Design: Applying Flexibility & Risk Management FHWA Resource Center Safety & Design Team www.fhwa.gov/resourcecenter/