Risk Mapping of Bangladesh's Highway Network for Climate Change

1. RISK MAPPING OFHIGHWAY NETWORK OF BANGLADESH FOR CLIMATE CHANGE AND ANALYSIS OF A RESPONSEMECHANISM Presented by ShamimaYasmin Supervisor Professor YabarHelmut

2. PRESENTATION OUTLINE Background LiteratureReview ResearchObjective Scope of theStudy Methodology StudyArea PolicyReview Future works Referrences

3. 1.BACKGROUND • Population: million over160 persquare • Density:1138 • km (Nov,2017) • Per capita GDP : $1602 ( year 2017) • 6S4ourceG:htteps:o//upllooadg.wiikcimeadila.orDg/wiikvipeidsia/icoomnmosns/3/34/Ganges- Brahmaputra-Meghna_basins.jpg • DisasterPronereverine country (about 700rivers)

4. DISASTER PRONE AREAS OFBANGLADESH Drought Flood HighSaline Prone High surge> 1m

5. CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT ON NATURAL RAINFALL • Average annual rainfall in Bangladesh varies from 1500 mm in the west-central part to over 3000 mm in the northeast andsoutheast. • From a study of 50 years rainfall data, it is found that the monsoon rainfall increases very gently as 2.65 mm/year. • These changing phenomena in rainfall in Bangladesh can be explain as the probable impact ofclimate change(IPCC,2007).

6. RAINFALL PATTERN 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1600 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Monthly Rainfall inmm y = -0.1947x +911.15 y = 0.7733x -557.31 y = 1.7105x - 2824.71400 Rainfall inmm Rainfall inmm 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1984 Year 195419641974198419942004 Year 1974 Year 1954 1964 1974 1994 2004 1954 1994 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 y = 0.498x - 412.0 Monthly Rainfall inmm y = -0.175x +837.8 Monthly Rainfall inmm y = 0.663x - 720.5 Monthly Rainfall inmm 1984 Year 1974 Year 1954 1964 1974 1994 2004 1954 1994 195419641974198419942004 Year

7. FLOOD PATTERN IS CHANGING • The area ofinundation isincreasingwithland use changepattern. Yearly InundatedArea 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Year • Theeconomiclossis alsoincreasing • Approximately37%, Flooded Area (1000 sqKm) 43%,52%and68%of the country isinundated withfloodsofreturn periods of 10, 20, 50and 100 years respectively 1954 1955 1956 1962 1963 1968 1970 1971 1974 1984 1987 1988 1998 2004 2007 (MPO,1986).

8. FLOOD PATTERN IS CHANGING (CONTD.)

9. TRANSPORTINFRASTRUCTUREIN BANGLADESH Sectoral share in GDP inInfrastructural Sector (base year2005-06) Passenger ModalShare 4% 12 8% Road Water IWT 10 88% Post & Telecommun ications Transport Services& Storage AirTransport 8 6 Freight ModalShare 4 2 16% 4% Water transport Road Water IWT 0 Land Transport 80% Source:RevivalofInlandWaterways:StrategiesandOptions,Report,WorldBank2007

10. MAJORTRANSPORTATION ORGANIZATION • Roads and HighwaysDepartment • Pioneer organization • Responsible for majorInfrastructure • Local Government Engineering Department • RuralInfrastructure • City CorporationBangladesh • 11nos.of CC • Responsible for the network between the cities

11. RHD RoadNetwork National -- Regional-- Zilla-- TotalRoads 3,570km 4,323km 13,678km 21,571km Source: HDM, Roads and HighwaysDepartment 11

12. PICTURESOFROADNETWORKAFFECTEDBY FLOOD 2017

13. 2.LITERATURE REVIEW

14. Percentage Inundation of Highways by flood 1998 Notinundated Highways National Regional ZillaRoad Inundated National Highways Inundated Regional Highways InundatedFeeder Roads • 2088 • million • 1145 • million • 11570 • million 34.57 55.39 3.63 6.40

15. LITERATURE REVIEW

16. 3.PROBLEM STATEMENT • Climate change is not in the control of only Bangladesh • Govt’s plans for climate change are still very minimal and lacking in scope considering the magnitude of climate changeeffects • Road infrastructure is not gridconnected • No risk assessment framework for climate changehazards

17. 03.OBJECTIVES OFTHE RESEARCH • The major objectivesare: • To develop a risk assessment framework of selectedHighway. • To propose a response mechanism framework Considering the technical and budgetconstraint • A probable recommendation offinancial mechanism.

18. 03.SCOPE OFTHE STUDY • Preparation of flood hazardmap • Preparation of flood riskmap •  • A brief cost benefit analysis for a selectedlink • Analysis of existing policy to find gapsfollowed by recommendations

19. 05.METHODOLOGY Climate Data Analysis Preparation of FloodRisk Map Viability of countermeas uresoptions

20. METHODOLOGY • Rainfall data,Water Table data, Discharge data, estimation of returnperiod ClimateData Analysis

21. FLOOD HAZARD MAPPING Digital Elevation Model ArcGISbased flood tool (GTS) Watershed Delineation Discharge data atpoints ofwatershed FloodHazard map

22. FLOOD RISKASSESSMENT GIS based Multicriteria Analysis Analytical Hierarchy Process Economic Vulnerability Special Hotspots, Nearness to themain stream or nearby water body, land use data,Vehicle occupants (relativeto populationdensity) Flood RiskMap

23. ECONOMICVIABILITY OF COUNTERMEASURES • EconomicIndicators • BCR=Benefit/Cost • Total Cost= Construction cost+ Operation & Maintenancecost • Totalbenefit=VOC+TTC+ACC • Where,VOC= Reduction in Vehicle operatingcost • TTC=ReductioninTravelTime cost • ACC = Reduction of AccidentCost • TTC =Passengerbased TTC+Vehicle BasedTTC • TTC & ACC value will be taken from RHD Road UserCost manual,2016-17. • VOC = 0.003 x2 -0.3706 x + 18.799,Where VOC is(BDT/km) • X = Passenger car based travel speed (km/h) [The Study onthe National Road Network Development in Cambodia” JICA, 2006”]

24. 5. STUDYAREA • RoadPrioritization

25. STUDYAREA • N1 one of the most important highwaynetwork • 69 major and minorlinks

26. STUDYAREA (CONTD.)

28. 6.POLICY OVERVIEW • Flood Action Plan (after 1988flood) • The Bangladesh Water and FloodManagement Strategy,1998 • United Nations Framework Convention on climate change, 1994 • National Adaptation Programme (Napa,2005) as a result of climate changeconvention • Adaptation Measures as Prioritized in BangladeshNAPA: • Enhancing resilience of urban infrastructure toimpacts of climate change including floods andcyclone

29. CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY OVERVIEW (CONT) • SAARC FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION (SFA)2006-2015 • In13th Dhaka Summit, the state govt. called for a comprehensive framework for disaster management titled “Disaster Managementin South Asia:A Comprehensive Regional Framework for Action2006- 2015”, • Identified priority areas foraction: • Develop and implement risk reductionstrategies • Establish Regional and National Response Mechanisms forDisaster Management • Establish a Regional Information Sharing Mechanism and Develop Networkof Institutions andOrganizations • DevelopandimplementDisaster Managementtraining,education,research and awareness programmes • Apply the ICT for disastermanagement. • Establish an effective monitoring and evaluationmechanism.

30. CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY OVERVIEW (CONT) • Bangladesh climate change strategy and action plan,2009 formulated by Ministry of environment andforest • Climate change is a environmental as well as developmentissue.

31. CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY OVERVIEW (CONT) strategy Programme based on 6pillar Sustainable development Food security, social protection andhealth Comprehensivedisaster management Povertyeradication Well being of vulnerablegroup Infrastructure Research andknowledge management Mitigation and lowcarbon development Capacity building and Institutionalstrengthening

32. CLIMATE CHANGE POLICYOVERVIEW (CONT) • ConsolidatedDamageandlossAssessment,LessonsLearnt • fromtheFlood2007andFutureActionPlanpreparedby Ministry of Food and DisasterManagement • According to it, Roads and Highway department reported that about 55% of roads were affected by the 2007 flood which is in length of 2,344 km. A total 52 bridges were damaged (1811 meter inlength). • Recommendation: Risk analysis and risk mitigation should be amandatory element of any new construction or replacement programme design. This should involve both single sector and cross sector risk analysis. If this is not undertaken there can be no guarantee that reconstruction work will survive the next wave offlooding.

33. ROAD MASTER PLAN • Road Master Plan formulated in 2005 by Ministry of Road Transport andBridges. • Findings: • No updated master plan tilldate. • Risk prioritization and disaster mitigationisnot • mainstreamed. • No hydrological or morphological study during design or construction • Due to climate change, flood of 100 years return period in increasing. So its high time to change the designscenario.

34. FUTUREWORK • Preparation of hazard map usingarcGIS • Analysing different vulnerable scenario to produce riskmap • Catagorizing risk map and section of a importantlink • Cost-benefit analysis ofmeasures.

35. 05.REFERENCES • Ahmed, P. and Biswas, R.(2012), Disaster Risk Reduction Measures in Bangladesh • Alam, J. and Zakaria, M. (2002), Design and Construction of Roads in Flood AffectedAreas • Quium, A and Hoque, A. (2002), The Completeness and Vulnerability of Road Network inBangladesh • Islam, M. (2011), Vulnerability Analysis of Bangladesh due to Multiple Hazards using GISTechnique • Masood, M. et al. (2012), Flood Hazard Risk assessment in Mideastern part of Dhaka,Bangladesh • Annual Report (2008-2009), WARPO, Ministry of Water Resources, Bangladesh • National Plan for Disaster Management (2010-2015), Disaster Management Burreaue,Bangladesh. • Consolidated Damage and loss Assessment, Lessons Learnt from the Flood 2007 and Future Action Plan, Executive Summary (2007), Ministry of Food and DisasterManagement. • Road master plan,2009-2015