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Ken Cureton June 2014 cureton@usc

Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: Systems Architecting and the Political Process What’s Next for Manned Space Programs? University of Southern California Viterbi School of Engineering Systems Architecture & Engineering (SAE). Ken Cureton June 2014 cureton@usc.edu.

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Ken Cureton June 2014 cureton@usc

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  1. Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series:Systems Architecting and the Political ProcessWhat’s Next for Manned Space Programs?University of Southern CaliforniaViterbi School of EngineeringSystems Architecture & Engineering (SAE) Ken Cureton June 2014 cureton@usc.edu

  2. WHAT’S NEXT FOR MANNED SPACE? • GRADUAL RECOGNITION IN 1990s THAT SHUTTLE DESIGN WAS AGING • MORE EXPENSIVE TO MAINTAIN AND LAUNCH THAN EVER • LOSS OF COLUMBIA IN 2003 ACCELERATED THE SEARCH FOR COST SAVINGS • MANY REPLACEMENT SYSTEMS PROPOSED, FUNDED, AND THEN CANCELLED

  3. MOST RECENTLY CANCELLED PROGRAM: • CONSTELLATION:NASA AUTHORIZATIONACT OF 2010BROUGHT PROGRAMTO AN ENDON OCTOBER 11, 2010 • CONSTELLATION PROGRAM REPLACED BY THE U.S. NATIONAL SPACE POLICY • FINAL SHUTTLE FLIGHT: JULY 8, 2011 • RELIANT ON RUSSIANS AND OTHERS THEREAFTER

  4. RUSSIAN SPACECRAFT ARE NOW THE ONLY MEANS USED BY ASTRONAUTS TRAVELING TO THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION • BAIKONUR IS SOLE LAUNCH SITE USED FOR MANNED MISSIONS TO THE ISS • MAY 2014: RUSSIANS ANNOUNCED NO MORE SUPPORT TO ISS AFTER 2020 • NASA NOW WORKING WITH US COMPANIES • DEVELOPING SPACE TAXIS WITH GOAL OF RESTORING US TRANSPORT TO USS BY 2017

  5. RUSSIAN “SOYUZ” MANNED LAUNCH SYSTEM

  6. SOYUZ-TM EXTERIOR CREW RETURN MODULE CREW CAPACITY: THREE

  7. SOYUZ-TM INTERIOR

  8. CHINA: MANNED SPACEFLIGHT PLAN • FIRST MANNED SPACEVEHICLE: 10/15/2003 • SPACE LABORATORY: 201520 DAYS WITH CREW OF 3 • SPACE STATION: 2018+ • INDIA: MANNED SPACE FLIGHT AFTER 2017 SHENZHOU 5 REENTRY MODULE

  9. POST-SHUTTLE LAUNCH SYSTEM PROGRAMS: (ALL CANCELLED!) • SSTO (SINGLE STATE TO ORBIT) • EELV (EVOLVED EXPENDABLE LAUNCH VEHICLE) • X-33 (AND IN A SENSE, X-34 AND X-35) • RLV (REUSABLE LAUNCH VEHICLE) • X-38 CRV (CREW RETURN VEHICLE) • ORION (SHUTTLE REPLACEMENT) • CONSTELLATION (DITTO) “AND THE BEAT GOES ON...”

  10. COMMERCIAL SPACE INFRASTRUCTURE? • NASA’S $30M COMMERCIAL CREW PROGRAM • 2 COMPANIES: BOEING, SIERRA NEVADA CORPORATION SPACE SYSTEMS & SPACEX • POTENTIALLY TRANSPORT CREW MEMBERS FROM UNITED STATES LAUNCH SITES TO ISS • APRIL 2014:SPACEXCOMMERCIALDRAGONRESUPPLY SHIPDOCKS WITH ISS

  11. Cancelled

  12. X-38 (B-52 DROP TO PARAFOIL LANDING) Cancelled

  13. NASA X-51A "WAVERIDER“ MAY 27 2010: ~ 200 seconds, up to ~ Mach 5 and ~ 70,000 feet MAY 3 2013: 240 seconds, Mach 5.1 at 60,000 feet Experimental - But Unmanned

  14. EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY (ESA) ARIANE 5 LAUNCH VEHICLE • UNMANNED-- BUT COULD BE EXPANDED

  15. RUSSIAN “PROTON” LAUNCH VEHICLE

  16. RUSSIAN “PROTON” BOOSTER BUILT AND LAUNCHED ONTRANSPORTER!

  17. NEW “ANGARA”RUSSIANMANNEDLAUNCHVEHICLES • ANNOUNCEDBY VLADIMIRPUTINJULY OF 2013 • SCHEDULEDFOR 2018-2020

  18. CHINESE “LONG MARCH” 2F VEHICLE • SHENZHOU CAPSULELAUCHER • CHINESE “LONG MARCH” 7 VEHICLE IN DEVELOPMENT

  19. INDIAN “POLAR SATELLITE LAUNCH VEHICLE” PSLV • UNMANNED-- BUT PROTOTYPE FOR FUTURE MANNED BOOSTERS

  20. PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE • IN YOUR PROFESSOR’S HUMBLE(AND EVER SO UNBIASED!) OPINION • U.S. WILL (IN THE SHORT TERM): • CONTINUE LEADERSHIP IN UNMANNED SPACE • CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE PRIVATE FUNDING FOR UNMANNED SYSTEMS • SOME COMMERCIALIZATION OF MANNED SPACE-- BUT WITH LITTLE GOVERNMENT FUNDING • CUT-OFF OF RUSSIAN LAUNCHES AND SPECTER OF COMPETITION FROM ASIAN COUNTRIES WILL STIMULATE RESURGENCE OF NATIONAL PRIDE • SOMEWHERE AFTER YEAR 2017-TO-2020

  21. PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE (CONTINUED) • FACT OF LIFE #3: A STRONG, COHERENT CONSTITUENCY IS ESSENTIAL • U.S. TYPICALLY PERFORMES STRONGLY WHEN STIMULATED BY FEAR OF FOREIGN DOMINATION • OFTEN VILIFIES OTHER COUNTRIESOUT OF FEAR • INCREASED PUBLIC SUPPORT DUE TO PERCEIVED THREAT OF RUSSIANS AND CHINESE AFTER 2020 • AFTER WARS IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ NO LONGER A HEAVY DRAIN ON ECONOMY

  22. PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE (CONTINUED) • FACT OF LIFE #5: BEST TECHNICAL SOLUTION OFTEN NOT BEST POLITICAL SOLUTION • POLITICAL “VALUE” OF MANNED SPACE WILL CHANGE BASED ON TWO FACTORS: • PERCEIVED THREAT OF FOREIGN DOMINATION • NEED TO REVIVE HIGH-TECH AEROSPACE JOBS • NASA TOLD TO FOCUS ON AERONAUTICS AND UNMANNED SPACE EXPLORATION • DOD (AIR FORCE) TOLD TO FOCUS ON MANNED SPACE WITH MILITARY MISSIONS: DISPOSABLE “SPACE PLANE” ON TOP OF AN EXISTING BOOSTER • ASSURED ACCESS TO SPACE STATION(S) • TO PURSUE SPACE TARGETS

  23. SAE 550 Class Summary • Students Exposed to a Broad Range of Political Impacts on Actual Case Study System Architecture and Design • Basic Research Systems • Infrastructure Systems (e.g. Manned Space Systems) • Design & Development of Mission Systems • Operation & Use of Mission Systems and Processes • International (non-USA) Systems • “Change”-- Efforts to Streamline Government • Students Required to Demonstrate (for their chosen Research Paper topic and for 10 Case Studies): • Political Impacts on System Architecture and Design • Emphasis: Training Systems Architects & Systems Engineers in the Understanding and Application of Political Risk Mitigation Factors • Dr. Brenda Forman’s “Political Facts Of Life”

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