Visualizing the Science of Climate Change

1. Visualizing the Science of Climate Change Brian Martin Peter Mahaffy

2. What do all of these images have in common?

3. Acknowledments

4. Jasper, Alberta

6. UN Decade for Education for Sustainable Development (2005-2014) • Improve the quality of life for this and future generations, in a way that respects the planet we live on. • To do this we must learn constantly. • Challenge individuals, institutions and societies to view tomorrow as a day that belongs to all of us, or it will not belong to anyone. 

7. Global Climate Change • The atmosphere of our planet • What is climate & is it changing? • Causes of change • Short and long term effects • How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?

8. Different Regions of Earth’s Atmosphere • Exosphere • Thermosphere • Mesosphere • Stratosphere • Troposphere Stratosphere Troposphere w clouds @ top Space Shuttle Discovery 1995. Sunrise over West Indies

10. Temperature Profile of Earth’s Atmosphere • Temperature of atmosphere controlled by 4 factors • Absorption of energy from the sun. • Heat production in interior of the earth. • Loss of energy by emission from the earth as a blackbody radiator. • Chemistry and photochemistry also play a role – especially: • Infrared absorption by gases in troposphere • Oxygen / ozone photochemistry in stratosphere

11. Global Climate Change • The atmosphere of our planet • What is climate & is it changing? • Causes of change • Short and long term effects • How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?

12. What is ‘Climate’? • Climate is ‘average weather’ • - and its variability • - for a particular region • - over a period of time • Includes many different elements • (Environment Canada – Edmonton)

13. What is ‘climate change’? • Climate change is a shift in ‘climate’ relative to a given reference time period • It is caused by: Natural factors - Solar variability - Volcanic dust levels - Internal variability - Geological change Human factors • - Greenhouse gases • - Aerosols • - Ozone depletion • - Land use change (Environment Canada – Edmonton)

14. Climate Change – A New Idea? • 1827: Fourier – theorized that greenhouse gases warm the planet • 1896: Arrhenius - proposed that changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to volcanic eruptions and the combustion of coal can cause climate change • 1938: Callendar – first noted that human emissions of CO2 may add significantly to natural concentrations in the atmosphere • 1957: Revelle et al. – first warned that human emissions have started a global scale geophysical experiment and initiated an atmospheric CO2 concentration monitoring program Environment Canada

15. Is Climate Changing?Focus First on Mean Global Surface Temperature

16. “Humanity is conducting an unintended, uncontrolled, globally pervasive experiment whose ultimate consequences could be second only to a global nuclear war.” World Conference on The Changing Atmosphere: Toronto, June 1988

17. Chemistry in Context

18. WHO – from International Panel on Climate Change

19. Global Climate Change • The atmosphere of our planet • What is climate & is it changing? • Causes of change • Short and long term effects • How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?

20. How is Heat Trapped?Chemistry In Context

21. Wavelength Distribution of Solar Radiation ? Chemistry in Context

22. 6000 K 255 K Wavelength Distribution (non-linear scale)

23. Interaction of Electromagnetic Radiation with Molecules

24. Key Players - A Closer Look • Carbon Dioxide • Methane • Nitrous Oxide • CFCs and HCFCs • Water ! • Aerosols • Solar activity

25. Carbon Dioxide – Mechanism for Tropospheric Warming ?

26. Carbon Dioxide Concentration Trends Source: OSTP

27. Chemistry in Context

28. [CO2] and Temperature – Correlation?

29. Per capita CO2 emissions – GlobalWikimedia Commons

31. Photomicrograph of calcareous ooze www.soc.soton.ac.uk/.../photomicrographs/ BNFC-44PB_full.jpg

35. Methane by Sector - Canada Residence time -12 years Global Warming Potential - 23

37. Clathrates (methane hydrates) - Runaway Greenhouse Effect?

38. Geomar Research Centre

39. Nitrous Oxide (N2O) by Sector - Canada Residence time - 120 years ! Global Warming Potential – 296 !

41. Harvey was a dentist, But now his career is through, 'Cause what he thought was N2O Was really NO2

42. CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs

43. “Super” Greenhouse Gases 100 year mass normalized global warming potential of 18,000 Relative to carbon dioxide

44. Terraform Mars with Super Greenhouse Gases? Proceedings of Natl Academy of Sciences, Feb 2001

46. Aerosols

48. The Bottom Line?

49. The International Panel on Climate Change is the principal source of sound advice on climate change science 1990 1992 1995 1997 2001 First Report RIO Second Report Kyoto Third Report Increasing Confidence Bonn & Marrakesh Cautious

50. The IPCC progression in confidence FAR: "Our judgment is that the size of [global] warming is broadly consistent with predictions of climate models but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability“ SAR: "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.“ TAR: "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last50 years is attributable to human activities."