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It’s Heating Up! -Visualizing the Science of Climate Change

It’s Heating Up! -Visualizing the Science of Climate Change. Brian Martin and Peter Mahaffy The King’s University College and The King’s Centre for Visualization in Science. What do all of these images have in common?. In today’s talk….

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It’s Heating Up! -Visualizing the Science of Climate Change

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  1. It’s Heating Up! -Visualizing the Science of Climate Change Brian Martin and Peter Mahaffy The King’s University College and The King’s Centre for Visualization in Science

  2. What do all of these images have in common?

  3. In today’s talk… • Some of the underlying evidence for global climate change • The science of global climate change • Global climate change and social and political policy • Teaching tools to help bring this to students

  4. “View tomorrow as a day that belongs to all of us, or it will not belong to anyone…” UN Decade for Education for Sustainable Development 

  5. UN Decade for Education for Sustainable Development (2005-2014) • Improve the quality of life for this and future generations, in a way that respects the planet we live on. • To do this we must learn constantly. • Challenge individuals, institutions and societies to view tomorrow as a day that belongs to all of us, or it will not belong to anyone. 

  6. Global Climate Change • The atmosphere of our planet • What is climate & is it changing? • Causes of change • Short and long term effects • How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?

  7. Our existence depends on a fragile and thin layer of Nitrogen and Oxygen - atmosphere Jasper, Alberta

  8. Different Regions of Earth’s Atmosphere Space Shuttle Discovery 1995. Sunrise over West Indies

  9. Global Climate Change • The atmosphere of our planet • What is climate & is it changing? • Causes of change • Short and long term effects • How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?

  10. What is ‘Climate’? • Climate is ‘average weather’ • - and its variability • - for a particular region • - over a period of time • Includes many different elements • (Environment Canada – Edmonton)

  11. What is ‘climate change’? • Climate change is a shift in ‘climate’ relative to a given reference time period • It is caused by: Natural factors - Solar variability - Volcanic dust levels - Internal variability - Geological change Human factors • - Greenhouse gases • - Aerosols • - Ozone depletion • - Land use change (Environment Canada – Edmonton)

  12. Is Climate Changing?Focus First on Mean Global Surface Temperature

  13. “Humanity is conducting an unintended, uncontrolled, globally pervasive experiment whose ultimate consequences could be second only to a global nuclear war.” World Conference on The Changing Atmosphere: Toronto, June 1988

  14. Chemistry in Context

  15. WHO – from International Panel on Climate Change

  16. Global Climate Change • The atmosphere of our planet • What is climate & is it changing? • Causes of change • Short and long term effects • How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?

  17. Greenhouse gases – A New Idea? • 1827: Fourier – theorized that greenhouse gases warm the planet • 1896: Arrhenius - proposed that changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to volcanic eruptions and the combustion of coal can cause climate change • 1938: Callendar – first noted that human emissions of CO2 may add significantly to natural concentrations in the atmosphere • 1957: Revelle et al. – first warned that human emissions have started a global scale geophysical experiment and initiated an atmospheric CO2 concentration monitoring program Environment Canada

  18. How is Heat Trapped?Chemistry In Context

  19. Wavelength Distribution of Solar Radiation

  20. 6000 K 255 K Wavelength Distribution (non-linear scale)

  21. Interaction of Electromagnetic Radiation with Molecules

  22. Key Players - A Closer Look • Carbon Dioxide • Methane • Nitrous Oxide • CFCs and HCFCs • Water ! • Aerosols • Solar activity

  23. Carbon Dioxide – Mechanism for Tropospheric Warming ?

  24. Perhaps one of the most important graphs in history! C02 (ppm) Date

  25. Carbon Dioxide Concentration Trends Source: OSTP

  26. How CO2 Correlates with Temperature

  27. Photomicrograph of calcareous ooze www.soc.soton.ac.uk/.../photomicrographs/ BNFC-44PB_full.jpg

  28. Modeling CO2 in the atmosphere – the 4-Box Model • This can be modeled with a set of 4 coupled 1st order differential equations • Highly simplified but qualitatively informative

  29. Per capita CO2 emissions – Global

  30. (Closing?) Infrared Windows

  31. Methane by Sector - Canada Residence time -12 years Global Warming Potential - 23

  32. Clathrates (methane hydrates) - Runaway Greenhouse Effect?

  33. “Super” Greenhouse Gases 100 year mass normalized global warming potential of 18,000 Relative to carbon dioxide

  34. Terraform Mars with Super Greenhouse Gases? Proceedings of Natl Academy of Sciences, Feb 2001

  35. The Bottom Line?

  36. The International Panel on Climate Change is the principal source of sound advice on climate change science 1990 1992 1995 1997 2001 First Report RIO Second Report Kyoto Third Report Increasing Confidence Bonn & Marrakesh Cautious

  37. The IPCC progression in confidence FAR: "Our judgment is that the size of [global] warming is broadly consistent with predictions of climate models but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability“ SAR: "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.“ TAR: "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last50 years is attributable to human activities."

  38. Joint statement by Academies of Science from 17 other countries – May 2001 “The work of the…IPCC represents the consensus of the international science community on climate change science. We recognize IPCC as the world’s most reliable source of information…and endorse its method of achieving this consensus.”

  39. IPCC 3rd Assessment Report, 2001

  40. Global Climate Change • The atmosphere of our planet • What is climate & is it changing? • Causes of change • Short and long term effects • How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?

  41. The IPCC Third Assessment Report • The IPCC TAR (2001) was a peer-reviewed publication, the result of the work of hundreds of leading climate scientists and modellers. • A Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) was also released, which • Developed 4 major scenario families of possible future emissions of the major greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs, HFCs, etc…) • Our models use EdGCM – based on a NASA/ GISS Global Climate Model

  42. Special Report on Emissions (SRES) Scenarios

  43. Global Climate Change • The atmosphere of our planet • What is climate & is it changing? • Causes of change • Short and long term effects • How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?

  44. Range of IPCC Model Predictions

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