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South Carolina Economic Update

South Carolina Economic Update. October 5, 2009. Dr. Don Schunk Research Economist BB&T Center for Economic & Community Development Coastal Carolina University. SC Total Employment Jan. 1990 – August 2009. June 2000: 1,883,300 jobs. August 2009: 1,848,600 jobs.

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South Carolina Economic Update

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  1. South Carolina Economic Update October 5, 2009 Dr. Don SchunkResearch EconomistBB&T Center for Economic & Community DevelopmentCoastal Carolina University

  2. SC Total EmploymentJan. 1990 – August 2009 June 2000:1,883,300 jobs August 2009:1,848,600 jobs

  3. US Total EmploymentJan. 1990 – September 2009 Feb. 2001:132.5 million jobs Sept. 2009:130.9 million jobs

  4. Myrtle Beach MSA Total EmploymentJan. 1990 – August 2009

  5. Columbia MSA Total EmploymentJan. 1990 – August 2009

  6. Greenville MSA Total EmploymentJan. 1990 – August 2009

  7. Spartanburg MSA Total EmploymentJan. 1990 – August 2009

  8. SC Total Employment: Annual Job GrowthJan 1940 – August 2009 August 2009:-4.1%

  9. Recent Unemployment Trends in South Carolina

  10. SC Unemployment RateJan. 1976 – August 2009

  11. SC Unemployed & UI ClaimsJan. 1987 – August 2009

  12. SC EmploymentJan. 2009 – August 2009

  13. UI Exhaustion RateJune 1972 – August 2009 People are exhausting UI benefits at a record rate… this is why continued claims, unemployed, and unemployment rate have been falling.

  14. SC Labor ForceJan. 2009 – August 2009 SC’s labor force fell by 28,000 between May and August 2009

  15. SC Unemployment Rate revisitedJan. 2009 – August 2009 12.6% Given the actual trends in employment, what if the state’s labor force had remained unchanged since May? 11.5%

  16. SC Initial Claims for UIJan. 2009 – August 2009

  17. SC Initial Claims & UnemploymentJan. 2009 – August 2009

  18. U.S. Real GDP Growth1990Q1 – 2010Q4 2000 3.7% 2001 0.8% 2002 1.6% 2003 2.5% 2004 3.6% 2005 2.9% 2006 2.8% 2007 2.0% 2008 1.1% 2009 -2.6%2010 1.5%

  19. Headwinds AffectingConsumer Spending

  20. Job losses, flat incomes, household rebalancing translates into weak consumer spending Aug. 2008 to Aug. 2009: US Retail Sales down 5.6%

  21. S.C. Retail SalesJan. 1990 – July 2009 May-July 2008 to May-July 2009: SC Retail Sales down 12.5%

  22. A Few Key Sectors in South Carolina • June 2008 – June 2009: SC net loss of 92,700 jobs • Manufacturing: -29,800 • Leisure & Hospitality: -16,500 • Retail Trade: -12,100 • Construction: -10,900 (-24,400 since June 2007) • These sectors ~ 40% of all jobs • These + Govt. ~ 60% of all jobs • From 2002-2007: SC Employment increased by roughly 155 thousand • Over 50% of the job growth came from construction, leisure & hospitality, retail trade, and local government

  23. SC Total Employment: Annual Job Growth1940Q1 – 2010Q4 2000 1.6% 2001 -1.9% 2002 -1.0% 2003 0.2% 2004 1.4% 2005 1.8% 2006 2.2% 2007 2.0% 2008 -0.9% 2009 -4.3% 2010 -1.7%

  24. S.C. Total Employment Growth:Annual 1990 - 2010 2000 1.6% 2001 -1.9% 2002 -1.0% 2003 0.2% 2004 1.4% 2005 1.8% 2006 2.2% 2007 2.0% 2008 -0.9% 2009 -4.3% 2010 -1.7%

  25. S.C. Unemployment Rate1976Q1 – 2010Q4 SC’s unemployment rate: Expected to approach 15%, perhaps during Spring 2010 The roles of:-ongoing job losses-sluggish job growth-labor force growth What about broader measures of unemployment?

  26. SC Manufacturing Employment1970Q1 – 2010Q4 140,000 net job loss from2000 - 2010

  27. The State of Economic Development in South Carolina

  28. SC Employment Dynamics1992Q3 – 2008Q3

  29. SC Employment Dynamics1992Q3 – 2008Q3

  30. SC Employment Dynamics1992Q3 – 2008Q3 How do we add jobs? -Attract New Business -Encourage Expansion-Prevent Closings-Prevent Contractions

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