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An Analysis of Texas Migration Patterns and Economic I mplications

An Analysis of Texas Migration Patterns and Economic I mplications. Lila Valencia, Miguel Flores, & Nazrul Hoque University of Texas at San Antonio Applied Demography Conference January 2012. Background. Texas is characterized by large and rapid growth.

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An Analysis of Texas Migration Patterns and Economic I mplications

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  1. An Analysis of Texas Migration Patterns and Economic Implications Lila Valencia, Miguel Flores, & Nazrul Hoque University of Texas at San Antonio Applied Demography Conference January 2012

  2. Background • Texas is characterized by large and rapid growth. • One of the fastest growing states in the nation. • Second in population only to California. 15.7% of numerical change in U.S. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Apportionment Data.

  3. Background • Texas has had a net surplus of migrants dating back to 1960. • In the last decade, net migration contributed a little less than half to the Texas total population growth. Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center.

  4. Literature Review • Common data sources used in estimating domestic migration include the decennial census, ACS, CPS, SIPP, and IRS. • Hughes et al. (2007) and officials at the North Dakota State Data Center have used tax returns and exemptions as a proxy for net population flows. • The U.S. Census Bureau incorporates IRS data in their estimates of net internal migration.

  5. ACS – IRS Comparison

  6. ACS – IRS Comparison

  7. Objectives • Take two distinct approaches to explore who is moving to Texas and how these characteristics may impact the Texas economy • Exploring economic impact using aggregate adjusted gross income generated from net gains of migrants. • Estimating demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of domestic migrants to Texas

  8. Data Sources • U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, Single-Year estimates • U.S. Internal Revenue Service State-to-State Migration Data based on individual income tax returns

  9. Methods • ACS 1-Year Estimates characteristics of domestic migrants to Texas • Sex • Age group (Under 18, 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65+) • Race/Ethnicity (NH White, NH Black, NH Asian, NH Other, Hispanic) • Educational attainment (<HS, HS or GED, some college, college grad, graduate or professional degree) • Occupation (including Management, Business, & Finance; Computer, Engineering, & Science; Service; and Construction & Extraction occupations) • Industry (20 NAICS general categories, including Utilities; Construction; Manufacturing, Wholesale and Retail Trade)

  10. Methods • Inflow – taxpayers who filed federal tax returns in Texas but filed from a different state in the previous year. • Outflow – taxpayers who filed federal tax returns in a state other than Texas but filed from Texas the previous year. • Net Flow – the difference between inflow tax returns and outflow tax returns. A positive net flow indicates more inflow than outflow in Texas, and vice versa. • Adjusted gross income – gross income (total non-tax-exempt money, goods, property, and services) minus adjustments to income. • Exemptions – the characteristics of a taxpayer, such as age or number of dependents, that allow the taxpayer to make certain deductions from taxable income.

  11. Statistical Methods • Descriptive analysis evaluating similarities and differences between IRS and ACS estimates • Descriptive analysis of IRS State-to-State Migration data to determine state of origin of inflows to Texas, destination state of outflows in Texas, and the associated aggregate adjusted gross income of these in/outflows. • Bivariate analysis of ACS 1-Year Estimates of characteristics of domestic migrants to Texas, including a Chi-square test of independence with the cellchi2 option.

  12. Results

  13. Results

  14. Results

  15. Results

  16. Results

  17. Results

  18. Results *Ranking by total number of exemptions.

  19. Conclusions Push Factors Pull Factors No state income tax Lower than average unemployment Relatively affordable housing Relatively affordable higher education • Minimal safety net • High property taxes • Relatively lower-performing public schools • Low insurance rates • High pollution rates

  20. Conclusions • Increases in net AGI can produce related increases in consumer expenditures, jobs, GDP, and state sales/property, and income taxes. • Future studies could evaluate economic impact of net migration flows, particularly net AGI’s, in states with and without state income tax. • Compare ACS household incomes of in- versus out-migrants with IRS inflow and outflow AGIs. • While it is clear migration is an important part of Texas’ growth, motivations for migrating to or from Texas are less clear, but there is some evidence of an economic pull.

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