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Clear thinking for a stronger Nebraska

Clear thinking for a stronger Nebraska. About OpenSky Policy Institute. We are a non-partisan think tank focused on fiscal policy in Nebraska. Our mission is to improve opportunities for every Nebraskan by providing impartial and precise research, analysis, education, and leadership.

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Clear thinking for a stronger Nebraska

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  1. Clear thinking fora stronger Nebraska

  2. About OpenSky Policy Institute We are a non-partisan think tank focused on fiscal policy in Nebraska. Our mission is to improve opportunities for every Nebraskan by providing impartial and precise research, analysis, education, and leadership.

  3. Importance of the State Budget • Over 280,000 acres of surface water in lakes and reservoirs, 18,000 miles of rivers and streams, 108,000 irrigation wells, and 2,300 dams are monitored and inspected for water quality, dam safety, floodplain management, and public recreation purposes; • The State Patrol drives more than 10 million miles of Nebraska’s roadways annually, improving public safety, enforcing traffic and drug laws and investigating crimes; • Nearly 300,000 students are educated by 22,000 teachers in over 1,000 public schools each year • More than 106,000 students attend the University of Nebraska, state colleges, and community colleges each year • Almost 10,000 miles of highway and over 3,500 bridges are maintained (enough road to reach nearly halfway around the earth) • More than 152,000 children receive health care through Medicaid each month • More than 7,000 Nebraskans are cared for in state nursing facilities each month • More than 4,600 inmates are housed each month in the state correctional system • 175,000 professional licenses are overseen, including for more than 7,500 physicians, 35,000 nurses, 3,500 pharmacists, 7,000 mental health professionals, 1,500 dentists, and 1,000 veterinarians.

  4. Education, Health Care Top SpendingGeneral Fund Expenditures, FY 11-12 Total: $3.45 billion Sources: OpenSky analysis of data from Legislative Fiscal Office and Department of Administrative Services Accounting Division Note: Percentages do not sum to 100 due to rounding

  5. State Spending in Nebraska Has FallenGeneral Fund Appropriations per $1,000 of NE Personal Income,FY 98-99 to FY 14-15 Sources: Department of Administrative Services Accounting Division and Budget Division, Legislative Fiscal Office, Nebraska Economic Forecasting Board, Congressional Budget Office, and US Bureau of Economic Analysis data.

  6. Spending Trends in Major Budget AreasGeneral Fund Appropriations per $1,000 of Nebraska Personal Income Sources: NE Legislative Fiscal Office, US Bureau of Economic Analysis

  7. Transportation and Infrastructure Spending has DeclinedGeneral and Cash Fund Expendituresper $1,000 of Nebraska Personal Income Sources: OpenSky analysis of Department of Administrative Services Accounting Division, Legislative Fiscal Office, and US Bureau of Economic Analysis data.

  8. State Support for Local Governments DecliningAid* to Municipalities, Counties, and School Districts per $1,000 of Nebraska Personal Income, FY 00-01 to FY 11-12 *This includes the following programs: all state aid to K-12 schools, State Aid to Cities, State Aid to Counties, State Prisoner Reimbursement, County Property Tax Relief, Insurance Premium Tax distributions, Motor Vehicle Fees, Highway Allocation and Incentive, Municipal Infrastructure Redevelopment Fund, and Municipal Equalization Aid. Includes federal stimulus funds used to replace state funds in the TEEOSA school aid formula. Sources: OpenSky analysis of State Auditor of Public Accounts local budgets, Legislative Fiscal Office, Department of Revenue, and US Bureau of Economic Analysis data.

  9. Rainy Day Fund Approaching a Healthy BalanceCash Reserve Fund Balance as Share of General Fund Budget, FY 83-84 to FY 14-15 Sources: Legislative Fiscal Office, Nebraska Economic Forecasting Board

  10. Federal Revenues Have Grown as Share of Nebraska Budget Source: Department of Administrative Services Accounting Division, Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports

  11. Most Revenue Comes from Sales and Individual Income TaxesGeneral Fund Tax Revenues, FY 12 Total: $3.61 billion Sources: Department of Administrative Services Accounting Division, Annual Budgetary Report (December 2012). * Other taxes are primarily Business and Franchise Taxes and special income taxes on fiduciary income and financial institutions.

  12. Major State and Local Tax RevenuesTaxes per $1,000 of Nebraska Personal Income, 1995-2012 *State data are for fiscal years (2012 = FY 11-12); local data are for calendar years Sources: Department of Administrative Services Accounting Division, Annual Budgetary Reports, and Department of Revenue

  13. Property Tax Base Has Exceeded InflationTaxable Property per capita in 2012 Dollars, 1984-2012 Source: Department of Revenue Property Assessment Division, US Bureau of Economic Analysis

  14. Local Spending Has Not Increased in Recent Years Local Spending per $1,000 of Nebraska GDP, FY 00-01 to FY 11-12 Sources: Schools: Department of Education Annual Financial Reports. Counties and Municipalities: Auditor of Public Accounts Budget Data

  15. State Aid and Local Taxes Have Mirrored Each OtherAid and Taxes per $1,000 of Nebraska Personal Income Sources: US Census Bureau, Survey of State & Local Governments; US Bureau of Economic Analysis

  16. Local Governments Increasingly Reliant on Property TaxesProperty Taxes as Share of Total Revenues, FY 00-01 and FY 11-12 Sources: Cities and Counties: Nebraska Auditor of Public Accounts local budget data. Schools: Nebraska Department of Education Annual Financial Reports

  17. Property Taxes Rise When State School Aid Does Not Sources: Department of Revenue Property Assessment Division and Legislative Fiscal Office

  18. School Property Taxes Influenced by TEEOSA AidSchool Property Taxes per $1,000 of NE Personal Income,FY 92-93 to FY 11-12 Sources: NE Department of Education Annual Financial Reports, NE Legislative Fiscal Office Budget Reports

  19. School Funding Levels in LB 407 Would Leave State’s Commitment below Historic Average Sources: Spending data and projections from Legislative Fiscal Office; Personal Income from US Bureau of Economic Analysis; Personal Income growth projections from Nebraska Economic Forecasting Advisory Board. Note: $58.6 million in federal Education Jobs money is shown here in the year it was spent, FY12, rather than the year it was received, FY11.

  20. Tax Expenditures Edge General Fund Spending, FY 11-12

  21. Tax Expenditures by Type, FY 11-12 Total: $6.45 billion Sources: Business Incentives: Nebraska Department of Revenue, Nebraska Tax Incentives 2010 Annual Report (July 2011); Untaxed Internet and catalog sales: National Conference of State Legislatures, Collecting E-Commerce Taxes: An Interactive Map; Untaxed Services: Bill Lock, Memo Re: LR161, LR166, & LR 97 (Committee on Revenue: December 2009); all others: Nebraska Department of Revenue, 2010 Tax Expenditure Report (October 2010); 2010 data were used where possible.

  22. Sales Tax Base ErodingGoods and Services as Share of Household Consumption Sources: Opensky analysis of data from Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, and US Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts, Table 2.4.5U

  23. Sales Tax Revenues Grow More Slowly than Income Taxes Average annual growth in tax revenues, 1995-2012 Sources: NE Department of Revenue Accounting Division Annual Budgetary Reports, US Bureau of Economic Analysis State and Local Price Deflator, US Census Bureau

  24. Nebraska’s Structural DeficitProjected shortfalls, 1999 - 2012

  25. Nebraska’s structural deficit and spending trendsGeneral fund spending and projected shortfalls, 1999 - 2012

  26. Nebraska’s Tax System is RegressiveState & Local Taxes in 2010Shares of family income for non-elderly taxpayers Source: Institute for Taxation and Economic Policy

  27. LB 405 Would Raise Taxes on 80% of Nebraskans Average Annual Tax Change by Income Group, 2012 Income Levels Sources: LB 405 and Institute for Taxation and Economic Policy

  28. Economic Growth in States with High Income Taxes and No Income Taxes Growth in Real GDP Per Capita, 2002-2011 Source: OpenSky Analysis of US Bureau of Economic Analysis Data

  29. Unemployment in States with High Income Taxes and No Income Taxes Average Unemployment Rate, 2002-2011 Source: OpenSky Analysis of US Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

  30. States without Corporate Income Taxes Do Not Have Stronger Economic Growth Growth in Real GDP Per Capita, 2002-2011 Source: OpenSky Analysis of US Bureau of Economic Analysis Data * Texas has no corporate income tax but does have a franchise tax

  31. States without Corporate Income Taxes Do Not Have Lower Unemployment Average Unemployment Rate, 2002-2011 Source: OpenSky Analysis of US Bureau of Economic Analysis Data * Texas has no corporate income tax but does have a franchise tax

  32.  How Nebraska Stacks Up Against No-Income Tax States Business Climate • 1st Lowest business tax costs for new firms ( 2012 Tax Foundation) • 1st Least economically stressed state (2011 AP Analysis) • 2nd Lowest business costs (2011 Forbes) • 2nd Best pro-business state (2011 Pollina Corporate Real Estate, Inc.) • 2nd Best workforce training (2012 Business Facilities Rankings Report) • 3rd Best for taxes and regulation (2012 US Chamber of Commerce) • 3rd Best economic climate (2011 Forbes) • 3rd Best business friendliness (2010 CNBC) • 4th Best business climate (2012 Business Facilities Rankings Report) • 10th Best business tax climate (2012 Tax Foundation) Quality of Life • 1st Lowest unemployment rate (2011 US Bureau of Labor Statistics) • 2nd Best quality of life rank (2011 Forbes) • 2nd Highest Well-Being index score (2012 Gallup) • 3rd Highest per capita income, adjusted for regional price parities (2010 Bureau of Economic Analysis)

  33. LB 405 Would Have Cost $5.5 Billion from 1998 - 2012 Sources: LB 405; NE Department of Administrative Services Accounting Division, Annual Budgetary Reports; NE Department of Revenue, Tax Expenditure Reports. Missing tax exemption data were estimated based on other years where necessary. For the cumulative shortfall, the effect in odd-numbered years was estimated by averaging the two adjacent years.

  34. Tax Shift Winners and Losers Winners • High Income Earners • Out-of-State Businesses • Roads Interests Losers • Low and Middle-Income Families • In-State Businesses • Farmers/Ranchers • Goods Industry (esp. ag and manufacturing) • Health Care Consumers and Hospitals) • Nursing Homes • People with Disabilities • Churches/Parishioners • Nonprofit Private Colleges/Students • College Students • Education/Health Care • Good Public Policy

  35. Legislative tools • http://www.nebraskalegislature.gov/ • Track bills, watch floor debate and hearings, find your senator, etc. • http://www.nebraska.gov/billtracker/ • Receive daily email updates on up to 15 bills

  36. Conclusion • Our tax code does not reflect our modern, changing economy • Consequently, we don’t collect enough revenue to meet our spending obligations • Likely cuts to federal aid, income tax cuts and changes to roads funding will put further pressure on our budget priorities • Cuts to state aid to local governments have resulted in increased property taxes • Our tax code is regressive and will become more so as we shift the tax burden to sales and property taxes • We need comprehensive tax reform in order to address the above, allowing us to be more strategic in how we invest for the future

  37. How to receive our information • www.openskypolicy.org • Sign up for our email updates • Find us on facebook • Follow us on twitter • Contact us: (402) 438-0384 or (402) 250-4518 rfry@openskypolicy.org

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