A role of multi-decadal natural variability in forming weather and climate anomalies in Russia

1. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory A role of multi-decadal natural variability in forming weather and climate anomalies in Russia Major results in 2012 WP 5 Regional Projections of Extreme Events Vladimir A. Semenov vasemenov@mail.ru

2. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Outline ● Recent harsh winters as a consequence of the Arctic sea ice melt ● Impact of Atlantic Multidecadla Variability on weather and climate ● Simulation of the hypothetical Gulfstream shutdown ● Winter Arctic Sea ice and the Early 20th Century Warming ● Projections of regional climate changes (CMIP5 models) ● Impact of model resolution on daily precipitation statistics

3. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 1988-2002 1988-2002 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Harsh winters of the 21st century: Anomalously cold monthly temperature after a period of mild winters in 1980s and 1990s

4. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 SLP anomaly, hPa www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Harsh winters of the 21st century: The most recent example of winter 2012 SAT anomaly, K Previously, using idealized simulations with an AGCM, it was found that anti-cyclonic atmospheric circulation response can be caused by reduced sea ice anomalies in the Barents and Kara Seas (Petoukhov and Semenov 2010) Can it be reproduced by using realistic sea ice anomalies?

5. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Modeling climate response to the sea ice changes corresponding to the recent extremes of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Experimental setup SST anomalies in the NA (40N-60N) SST and SIC changes (1998-2006)-(1968-1976)

6. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 winter 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Modeling climate response to the sea ice changes corresponding to the recent extremes of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Sea ice impact on circulation and temperature winter SAT winter SLP Sea ice reduction in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic leads to the temperature decrease due to anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly centered in the southern border of the Barents Sea (Semenov et al. 2012, FAO)

7. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Modeling climate response to the sea ice changes corresponding to the recent extremes of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Changes in probability of the anomalously cold februaries, in % (SAT less than 1.5 standard deviation)

8. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Realistic sea ice experiments: sea ice vs NAO ECHAM5-T42L19/fixedSST-SIC run781: SIC <1966-1969>, SST <1981-2000> : high ice, very low NAO, cold winters run782: SIC <1990-1995>, SST <1981-2000> : low ice, very high NAO, warm winters run783: SIC <2005-2008>, SST <1981-2000> : very low ice, low NAO, cold winters

9. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 Realistic sea ice experiments: Feb SLP change SIC (2005-10)-(1990-95) NCEP Jan SLP change (2005-10)-(1990-95) www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Realistic sea ice experiments: sea ice vs NAO • No significant response to sea ice change from 1966-1969 to 1990-1995 • “Anti-cyclonic” response to sea ice changes from 1990-1995 to 2005-2010 similar to observations (although seasonally shifted) Semenov et al. (in preparation)

10. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on weather and climate (work with Evgeniya Shelekhova) ?

11. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on weather and climate Experimental setup: Atmospheric GCM ECHAM5 coupled with mixed layer ocean model with additional Q-fluxes corresponding to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability ATLICE ATLICEx2 ATL ICE

12. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on weather and climate Winter SLP changes, hPa ATLICE ATLICEx2 Atmospheric circulation response depends on both the amplitude and location of the additional heating. It is heat flux that is associated with sea ice changes that produces NAO-like response. ATL ICE

13. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on weather and climate Change in probability of anomalously cold Februaries (colder than -1.5 standard deviation, in %) ATLICE ATLICEx2 ATL ICE AMV may lead to increased probabilities of the cold winter months in large regions of Russia, in particular in European part. The increase is likely due to Arctic sea ice loss associated with the AMV.

14. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on weather and climate Experimental setup: Atmospheric GCM ECHAM5 coupled with mixed layer ocean model with additional Q-fluxes corresponding to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability The additional flux is time-varying with periodicity of 60 years Experiments: 1. ATLICEx2 flux, 60 years period 2. ATLICE flux, 60 years period 3. ATLICE flux, 40 years period

15. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 Correlation and regression of annual precipitation withanomalous Q-fluxes (0.1mm / day /0.1PW) correlation Volga Riverdischarge (km3/year) as simulated and observed regression www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on weather and climate Implications for the Caspian Sea level variations Annual temperature regression on the anomalous Q-fluxes (°С/0.1PW) AMV can be an important factor for the Caspian Sea level variations Impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on Caspian Sea level, Semenov et al., EGU 2012

16. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory The “Day after Tomorrow” revisited:Simulation of the hypothetical Gulfstream shutdown After a possibility of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning shutdown due to global warming with a threat of new Ice Age was disproved some years ago, recently, another media event has happened: Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill in spring 2010. Loop Current breaks, Gulfstream stops, Europe freezes and suffer from extremes.

17. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 Annual oceanic heat transport (Q-flux in the MLO model), W/m2 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Simulation of the hypothetical Gulfstream shutdown Deviation of surface temperature from zonal means, K

18. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 January 2006 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Simulation of the hypothetical Gulfstream shutdown Simulated January temperature change, K Atlantic sector Barents Sea Zuev, Semenov, Shelekhova, Gulev, Koltermann, 2012, Doklady Earth Sciences

19. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Winter Arctic Sea ice and the Early 20th Century Warming Using AGCM with prescribed boundary conditions (sea ice and SST) allows us to evaluate temperature sensitivity to sea ice and estimate Arctic sea ice anomaly in the Early 20th century Warming period There is a clear disagreement between temperature and sea ice HadISST1 data in the Arctic in before 1960s. Semenov, Latif, 2012, TC

20. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 0.8 млн км2 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Winter Arctic Sea ice and the Early 20th Century Warming Difference between observed and simulated(HadISST1 ice data) Arctic land winter (November-April) temperatures, °C Negative Arctic sea ice anomaly in the ETCW period is comparable to the current sea ice decrease

21. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Projections of regional climate changes Using data of 9 CMIP5 models, monthly mean temperature and precipitation, daily max and min temperature has been analyzed in simulations employing moderate climate change scenario RCP4.5. Annual SAT (°C) for Sochi region as simulated by 9 CMIP5 models in the 21st century Ensemble mean (for 9 CMIP5 models) annual SAT (°C) for Sochi region in the 21st century. Dashed area represents 95% confidence interval

22. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Projections of regional climate changes Same as in the previous slide but for precipitation, mm/day winter spring summer fall

23. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Projections of regional climate changes Ensemble mean annual precipitation trends and their uncertainty Trend, mm/day per 100 yr Inter-ensemble STDDEV, mm/day per 100 yr

24. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Impact of model resolution on daily precipitation statistics What is the impact of the climate model resolution on the results we use for climate change assessments? T31 T42 T63 T106 T159 T213

25. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Impact of model resolution on daily precipitation statistics Summer mean precipitation, mm/day Summer rain intensity, mm/day

26. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Impact of model resolution on daily precipitation statistics Impact on extremes 20-yr return values of daily precipitation in the Gelendzhik region, mm/day as a fuction of model resolution (in degrees lat/lon)

27. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Major conclusions • Recent anomalously cold winters can be a consequence of the Arctic sea ice loss. Winter sea ice retreat plays the major role in forming anti-cyclonic atmospheric circulation anomaly leading to cold events. • Accelerated winter Sea ice loss may be linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. • Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) plays important role for climate change over Eurasia, it can be responsible for about a half of the observed climate change in the last 3-4 decades. • AMV impacts not only mean climate characteristics but also extreme events. • Global climate model projections on a regional scale have a very large spread and should be treated with caution. • To resolve regional peculiarities related to complex orography and coastal line, a higher spatial resolution is required than that provided by current generation of global climate models.

28. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Спасибо за внимание!

29. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory Publications 2012 Refereed journals Зуев В.В., Семенов В.А., Шелехова Е.А., Гулев С.К., Колтерманн П. Оценки влияния океанического переноса тепла в Северной Атлантике и в Баренцевом море на климат Северного полушария // Доклады РАН. 2012. Т. 445. № 5. С. 585–589. Семенов В.А., Мохов И.И., Латиф М. Влияние температуры поверхности океана и границ морского льда на изменение регионального климата в Евразии за последние десятилетия. // Изв. РАН Физика атмосферы и океана. 2012. Т. 48. №4. С. 403-421. Semenov V.A., Latif M. The early twentieth century warming and winter Arctic sea ice // The Cryosphere. 2012. V6. Doi:10.5194/tc-6-1-2012. Conferences Semenov, V.A., Mokhov, I.I., Latif, M. and K.P. Koltermann (2012) Impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on Caspian Sea level, EGU General Assembly 2012, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 14, EGU2012-10897. Semenov, V.A. and M. Latif (2012) The early twentieth century warming and winter Arctic sea ice, EGU General Assembly 2012, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 14, EGU2012-10287.

30. NRAL Conference, Moscow, 14 December 2012 www.NRAL.org Natural Risks Assessment Laboratory