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The State of the tanker industry IMSF Singapore 17 April 2007

The State of the tanker industry IMSF Singapore 17 April 2007. Erik.Ranheim@INTERTANKO.com Manager Research and Projects. The State of the tanker Industry. High safety Low pollution Low age High earnings – until now Surplus of tonnage building up.

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The State of the tanker industry IMSF Singapore 17 April 2007

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  1. The State of the tanker industry IMSF Singapore 17 April 2007 Erik.Ranheim@INTERTANKO.com Manager Research and Projects

  2. The State of the tanker Industry • High safety • Low pollution • Low age • High earnings – until now • Surplus of tonnage building up

  3. Pollution rate 1000 ts spilt per bn tonne miles carried bn tonne-m 1000 ts spilt Source: ITOPF/Fearnleys

  4. Tanker accidents and trade Bn tonne-miles trade 1000 ts spilt Source: ITOPF/Fearnleys

  5. Tanker incidents by cause 1978-1Q07 Number incidents Source: Based on incidents reports from Informa

  6. Tanker incidents by cause 2006 Source: Based on incident reports from Informa

  7. Accidental pollution from tankerslargest accidents and age Number incidents Average age Source: Informa/INTERTANKO

  8. Total losses, tankers and bulkers Number Source: Clarkson

  9. TankerMarket

  10. Oil price and VLCC freight rates $ per day freight rate $ per barrel oil price

  11. VLCC spot and break-even rates $ per day freight rate

  12. VLCC break-even rates $ per day freight rate

  13. Oil price and freight rate $/barrel Deflated by the Consumer Price Index (USD) Source: INTERTANKO

  14. Gasoline price at the pump $ per litre Source: INTERTANKO

  15. World oil demand - mbd mbd Source: IEA

  16. Oil consumption per capita litres Source: BP Review

  17. Oil consumption if world populations consumed oil as Americans mbd

  18. Seaborne oil trade and Middle East oil production '000 bil tm mbd Source: Fearnleys/IEA

  19. Seaborne oil trade and tanker fleet Source: Fearnleys/IEA

  20. Tanker productivity – tonne-miles/dwt Source: Fearnleys/IEA

  21. Sources of Asian oil imports Source: IEA

  22. Sources of European oil imports - mbd mbd Source: IEA

  23. Sources of US oil imports - mbd mbd Source: IEA

  24. Increase in world oil demand in ME*, USA, China and ROW** mbd FSU: +0.05 Other Asia: +0.18 L America: +0.09 Africa: +0.06 Source: IEA

  25. World oil supply - mbd mbd Source: IEA

  26. TankerSupply

  27. Tanker contracting m dwt $ bn VLCC 13. 4 $ bn Suezmax: 5.9 ” Aframax: 8.8 ” Panamax: 2.8 ” Handy: 22.9 ” (43%) Source: INTERTANKO/Clarkson Shipyard Monitor

  28. Tanker fleet, orderbook and phase outtankers above 30,000 dwt m dwt 79 m dwt 133 m dwt

  29. Phase out SH tankers above 30,000 dwt m dwt

  30. VLCCsmax phase out ,+ 4.5% trade increase, assume balanced marked end 2006 Number Fleet: 142 m dwt 487 ships Orderbook: 54 m dwt 177 ” Single hull: 42 m dwt 154 ” Average age: 9.4 years

  31. Suezmaxesmax phase out + 4.5% trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006 m dwt Fleet: 52 m dwt Orderbook: 20 m dwt Single hull: 9 m dwt Average age: 9.2 years Surplus end 2007: 1.8 m dwt ” 2008: 2.6 m dwt ” 2009: 8.1 m dwt ” 2010: 3.7 m dwt

  32. Conversion to DH Total 7. 2 m dwt Conversion to FPSO/FSO/bulk carriers, heavy lift ….(1.9 m dwt in 2006, 1.2 m dwt so far 2007

  33. Tanker deliveries, removals, min phase-out m dwt

  34. Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out m dwt

  35. Tanker fleet double-hull development % Source: INTERTANKO

  36. Oil import by Suezmaxes - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys

  37. Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out m dwt

  38. Conclusion • Strong safety performance • Relatively strong demand development • Very strong fleet increase • Reduced earnings

  39. Tankers 30,000 - 59,999 dwtmin phase out, + 6 % trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006 m dwt ..if 4.5% increase, no new orders needed before 2012

  40. VLCC fleet development Number m dwt Source: INTERTANKO

  41. Aframaxesmax phase out + 4.5% trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006 m dwt Fleet: 72 m dwt Orderbook: 28 m dwt Single hull: 14 m dwt Average age: 9.2 years Surplus end 2007: 1.5 m dwt ” 2008: 5.5 m dwt ” 2009: 12.0 m dwt 15% ” 2010: 5.3 m dwt 6%

  42. Aframaxesmax phase out + 4.5% trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006 m dwt Fleet: 72 m dwt Orderbook: 28 m dwt Single hull: 14 m dwt Average age: 9.2 years Surplus end 2007: 1.5 m dwt ” 2008: 5.5 m dwt ” 2009: 12.0 m dwt 15% ” 2010: 5.3 m dwt 6%

  43. Tankers 30,000 - 59,999 dwtmin phase out + 6 % trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006 1,253 tankers 487 orders 228 phase out 11.1 years Number end 2007, 145 del - 45 phase out*, 75 increase demand = surplus 25 ships “ 2008, 157 “ - 17 “ 80 “ = “ 85 “ “ 2009, 127 “ - 18 “ 84 “ = “110 “ “ 2010, 56 “ - 93 “ 90 “ = “1 “

  44. Oil import by Panamaxes - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys

  45. Oil import by Suezmaxes - share of double hull % Source : Fearnleys

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