Climate change - a global problem

1. Climate change- a global problem Is the increase of the Earth's average temperature by 2oC during the 20th century really such a big deal? Should we be worried about global warming and climate change? What are the effects of greenhouse emissions on the environment? These are crucial questions that need to be answered. The concentration of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased over the last 100 years due to human activities. The primary anthropogenic source of carbon dioxide is fossil fuel burning, followed by clearing forested land for agriculture and then by cement making. According to chemical data from carbon isotopes and oxygen, approximately 45% of our emissions remain in the atmosphere each year and only a small part of the excess inflow is taken back out by plants and soils on land, and by the ocean. As a result, greenhouse gasses have raised the global temperatures leading to a worldwide climate change. According to U.S. Department of Energy, emissions from fossil fuels increased by over 16 times between 1900 and 2008 and by about 1.5 times between 1990 and 2008, due to the earth’s industrialization. Based on statistical data, in 2014 four of the BRIC member countries, Brazil, Russia, India and China, were listed among the five largest producers of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. China came first in emitting carbon dioxide with a share of 23% of the total world emissions. The United States followed (15%) and then came the European Union (EU28) (11%), India (6%), the Russian Federation (5%) and Brazil (4%). The impacts of climate change on the environment are already observable. Melting glaciers are resulting in accelerated sea level rise. We are experiencing longer and more intense heat waves and extreme weather conditions. Additionally, trees are flowering sooner and many animal species have moved to other places to find food. The predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are alarming. Global temperatures will continue to rise causing beneficial impacts in some regions and harmful ones in others.

2. Net annual costs due to the negative impacts are already considered to be very significant but will continue to worsen. Just look at the cost of a major bushfire such as those we have just experienced here in Victoria in October. Events like the January 2009 heatwave prior to Black Saturday were estimated to cost $800m. The cost of heatwaves such as this are expected to double by 2030 and triple by 2070 as the number of days per year over 35 degrees increases from 9 to 18 by 2030 and 26 by 2070 based on research by the CSIRO.1 Furthermore the heatwave prior to Black Saturday ended 374 people’s lives which is more than double than the fires themselves killed.2 There was also a 46% increase in emergency cases at hospitals across the state. Price Waterhouse Coopers suggests that death tolls from heatwaves could be twice as high by 2050.3 If we do not manage to curb climate change to 2°C above pre-industrial levels the cost is unthinkable. Unfortunately, climate change is not only an environmental issue. It has socio-economic implications as well. The poorer people of the developing world are the most vulnerable victims of climate change. Even though they contribute little to the creation of the problem, they are paying the highest price. Many of them have already be forced to leave their houses, temporarily or permanently, and a lot more will follow, because of a gradual degradation of the environment e.g. desertification, increased salinity in soils, floods and droughts. A new category of migrants is created. Climate change is considered as the main reason for the migration of environmental refugees. Who is to blame for this situation? It is obvious that we all have a share of social responsibility for protecting the environment. There is an urgent need to forge a new system that restores harmony with nature and among people. Fortunately, there is a will to tackle this issue with the great majority believing that this is a man-made problem and consequently that man can fix it. There have been 36 fortune 500 companies pledge to go 100% renewable, many cities are well on their way to being 100% renewable and some nations are making significant inroads. But it is not enough – the leadership of some is great and momentum for serious action on climate change is certainly building but after the negotiations at Lima’s conference in 2014, there was still only 148 developed and developing countries that have pledged their commitment to achieve the agreed below 2°C objective which will lead to a new global climate change agreement and will cover all UNFCCC countries. 1 October 2015 was the informal deadline for countries to define their Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). Each INDC is determined by national priorities, circumstances and capabilities and is based on a global framework that will result in a low- carbon, climate-resilient future. 1CSIRO (2010) “Change: Adapt now for the future”, p.2. http://www.csiro.au/Organisation- Structure/Flagships/Climate-Adaptation-... 2Victorian Bushfire Royal Commission (2009) Final Report – Summary, p.vii. 3Price Waterhouse Coopers (2011) Protecting Human Health and safety during severe and extreme heat events – a national framework, p.2-3.

3. Unfortunately, there are countries like Australia and Canada that are still dragging their feet despite having the resources to be leaders in the transition. There is a lot of pressure mounting on these countries leading up to the deal that is expected to be finalized at the Paris Climate Conference in December 2015. The top emitting countries –China, the US, the EU, Russia, Canada, Brazil, Indonesia and India have made their pledges, but there are another 48 countries responsible for 10% of the world's emissions that haven’t yet submitted their INDC. A new draft of the global climate change pact due to be signed in Paris this December has been released by the UN, calling on all nations to commit to mitigation policies that reflect their highest possible ambition, and to toughen these commitments every five years with a commitment to hold warming to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. We are all anxious to see how governments will meet the challenge of climate change. It is our duty to ensure that our way of life is sustainable in order to ensure our future and the future of the next generations. Part of this duty is to live our own lives sustainably and the other part is to ensure our Governments act in our best interests. One way to do that is to stay informed on what they are doing compared to what needs to be done. This blog will keep you up to date with: 1.what our country is doing at a municipal, state and federal level 2.how this compares to the rest of the world, and 3.whether it is enough to achieve limiting man made climate change to the 2°C above pre-industrial levels; a target the science dictates as crucial to avoid irreversible, catastrophic climate change. For more information please see http://climate.nasa.gov/effects/ http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/03/paris-2015-tracking-country-climate-pledges/ http://www.statista.com/statistics/271748/the-largest-emitters-of-co2-in-the-world/