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Global Climate Change Emissions Inventory to Support AB 1493 Workshop

California Environmental Protection Agency. Air Resources Board. Global Climate Change Emissions Inventory to Support AB 1493 Workshop. December 3, 2002. Workshop Panel. Doug Thompson, Moderator Chuck Shulock, Speaker Jon Taylor, Speaker Nehzat Motallebi, Speaker Jeff Long

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Global Climate Change Emissions Inventory to Support AB 1493 Workshop

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  1. California Environmental Protection Agency Air Resources Board Global Climate Change Emissions Inventory to Support AB 1493 Workshop December 3, 2002

  2. Workshop Panel • Doug Thompson, Moderator • Chuck Shulock, Speaker • Jon Taylor, Speaker • Nehzat Motallebi, Speaker • Jeff Long • Hector Maldonado • Kevin Nesbitt

  3. Overview • Background • Framework for the Inventory • Inventory for Identified GCC Pollutants • Inventory for Other GCC Pollutants Under Consideration • Ongoing Research and Inventory Development • Additional Questions, Comments, and Discussion

  4. Background

  5. AB 1493 Findings • Global warming is a matter of increasing concern for public health and the environment in California • Reductions in the state’s water supply • Adverse health impacts • Adverse impacts on agriculture • Increased risk of forest fires • Damage to coastline • Impacts on California’s economy

  6. AB 1493 General Requirements • By January 1, 2005 Board to adopt regulations that achieve maximum feasible and cost-effective reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles • Report to Legislature and Governor by January 1, 2005 • Regulations may not take effect prior to January 1, 2006 • Regulations apply only to 2009 and later model years

  7. In Developing Regulations … • Consider technical feasibility • Consider impact on economy of state • Provide flexibility as to means of compliance • Grant credit for early reductions • Conduct public workshops • Communities with significant exposure to air contaminants, including communities with minority or low-income populations

  8. Regulations Shall Not Require... • Fees or taxes on vehicle, fuel or VMT • Ban on sale of any vehicle category • Reduction in vehicle weight • Limitation on or reduction of speed limit • Limitation on or reduction of VMT

  9. Process Overview Technical Assessment (Individual tasks) Staff findings/Workshops/Board update Staff Proposal Draft report Workshop Board Adoption Staff report Board hearing

  10. Milestones Detailed technical work Initial workshop (GCC inventory) December 2002 Symposium on vehicle technology March 2003 Additional workshops Various Summary workshop October 2003 Board update November 2003 Draft staff proposal Release staff draft May 2004 Workshop June 2004 Final staff proposal July 2004 Board adoption September 2004 Report to Legislature/GovernorJanuary 2005

  11. Draft Workshop Schedule

  12. Purpose of this Workshop • Describe methodologies used to develop GCC emissions inventory • Present draft inventory based on assumptions and methodologies used • Provide information on comparison with other data sources • Solicit input

  13. Issues to be Addressed Later • Inventory support for compliance mechanisms • Manufacturer compliance • Early credits • Alternative strategies

  14. Framework for the Global Climate Change Emissions Inventory What’s Included?

  15. Identified GCC Pollutants • Methane (CH4) • Carbon Dioxide (CO2) • Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) • Nitrous Oxide (N2O)

  16. Other GCC Pollutants under Consideration • Black Carbon • Criteria Pollutants • ROG and NOx as precursors to Ozone • CO, PM10, SOx

  17. Global Warming Potential (GWP) • Global warming comparison of different greenhouse gases relative to CO2 • Time-integrated radiative forcing of 1 kg of the gas relative to 1 kg of CO2 • High uncertainty associated with GWP estimates

  18. GWP from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report

  19. Global Warming Potential of Shorter Lived Gases and Aerosols • Uncertain how to quantify their global radiative forcing • Short lived gases (CO, O3, NOX, ROG) and aerosols vary spatially and temporally • IPCC does not attribute GWP values to gases that are short-lived and spatially inhomogeneous

  20. Aerosols and Tropospheric Ozone Contribute to Global Warming Source:James Hansen et al. 2000

  21. Aerosols Affect Global Warming • Some aerosols reflect incoming radiation (global cooling) • Black carbon (soot) absorbs radiation (global warming) • Enhanced warming when mixed with other particles Sulfate Soot Separate Particles Mixed Particles

  22. Emissions Sources • Light Duty On-Road Fleet • Passenger Cars • Light Duty Trucks up to 8500 lb. GVWR • Emissions in CY 2000 and CY 2010

  23. MethodologiesUsed to Estimate Emissions • EMFAC Emissions Model • N2O Emissions Studies • Black Carbon Emissions Studies

  24. EMFAC Model • Used to Estimate On-Road Motor Vehicle Emission Inventory • EMFAC 2002 version 2.2 is latest release • Additional information available at http://www.arb.ca.gov/msei/on-road/latest_version.htm

  25. EMFAC Features • 13 Vehicle Classes • 45 Model Years within a Calendar Year • Inventories for 1970 to 2040 • Three Fuels (Gas / Diesel / Electric) • Three Exhaust Processes • Starts / Running / Idle • Four Evaporative Processes • Diurnal / Hot Soak / Running Loss / Resting Loss • 7 Pollutants

  26. Pollutants Included in EMFAC • HC / CO / NOx / PM / CO2 / LEAD / SOx • HC can be expressed as • TOG / ROG / CH4 • PM can be expressed as • TOTAL PM / PM10 / PM2.5

  27. How EMFAC Estimates Emissions • Process Rate (Emission Factor) * • Vehicle Test Projects • Number of Sources (Population) * • DMV Registration Data • Activity (Miles or Hours of Use) = • COGs - MPOs/ CALTRANS /BAR/Surveys • Inventory (Tons/Day)

  28. Correction Factors • Speed • Temperature • Fuel – RVP/Oxygenate/Sulfur • Air Conditioning • Soak Time • Humidity • Altitude

  29. EMFAC ModelingIncludes the Impacts of • Deterioration: emission rates increase with accumulated VMT • I/M Program: periodic inspection and repair lower emission rates • Changes in vehicle population and VMT over time • Changes in emissions standards

  30. Basis for Current N2O Inventory • ~40 Vehicles Tested in El Monte • Same Test Cycles as Criteria Pollutants • N2O was Directly Measured • Used Regression Analysis to Develop Function to Relate N2O to NOx • Applied Function to NOx Emissions from EMFAC

  31. Basis for Current Black Carbon Inventory • ARB and CRC Studies (1998) • Total of 50 light duty gas vehicles and 19 diesel passenger vehicles • We used these data to develop speciation profiles that include organic and elemental carbon fractions • Applied elemental carbon fractions to total PM from EMFAC • For global warming effect, we assume black carbon is equivalent to elemental carbon

  32. Comparative Analysis • Compared ARB draft inventory with CEC data • Good agreement for CO2 and CH4, less so for N2O • Methodologies are different • CEC disaggregates from national data • ARB data based on California specific fleet • We are continuing to evaluate CEC data and will also look at other data sets

  33. Inventory for Identified GCC Emissions

  34. CH4 Emissions(Tons per Day) Source: EMFAC 2002 version 2.2

  35. CO2 Emissions(Tons per Day) Source: EMFAC 2002 version 2.2

  36. HFC-134a Emissions(Tons per Day) Source: Insufficient data at this time

  37. N2O Emissions(Tons per Day) Source: Vehicle Testing by ARB

  38. CO2 Equivalencies

  39. Inventory for Other GCC Pollutants Under Consideration

  40. Black Carbon Emissions(Tons per Day)(exhaust only) Source: Derived from published studies and EMFAC PM data

  41. ROG Emissions(Tons per Day) Source: EMFAC 2002 version 2.2

  42. NOx Emissions(Tons per Day) Source: EMFAC 2002 version 2.2

  43. CO Emissions(Tons per Day) Source: EMFAC 2002 version 2.2

  44. PM10 Emissions (Tons per Day)(exhaust only) Source: EMFAC 2002 version 2.2

  45. SOx Emissions(Tons per Day) Source: EMFAC 2002 version 2.2

  46. On-Going Research and Inventory Development • N2O • HFCs • Black Carbon

  47. N2O Emissions

  48. N2O EmissionsCurrent Database • N2O emissions inventory based on ~40 LD vehicles tested at the ARB HSL • The database does not include ‘forward-looking’ technology vehicles • Additional N2O emissions data will be collected

  49. N2O EmissionsNew Project • A new project is being initiated at the ARB’s Haagen-Smit Laboratory • Project team includes ARB staff and staff from UCLA • Testing to be part of the 17th ARB Vehicle Surveillance Project

  50. N2O EmissionsNew Project (cont’d.) • N2O emissions to be characterized using a Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy instrument • Size and composition of test fleet will expand existing data set

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