MACROECONOMICS AND THE GLOBAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

1. MACROECONOMICSAND THE GLOBAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT 2nd edition The Current Account, the Balance of Payments, and National Wealth

2. Current Account (NA) National Accounts Approach to the Current Account • GNI (GNP) = income generated by domestically owned factors of production anywhere in the world • GDP = C + I + G + NX • GNI = GDP + NFP (net factor payments from abroad) • NFP = payments to domestically owned factors (labor and capital) located abroad minus payments to foreign factors located domestically • Payments: (1) net dividends, interest, rent to residents owing assets abroad and (2) net wages to residents working abroad

3. Current Account (NA) • GNI = GDP + NFP • total income earned • GNDI = GDP + NFP + NFT • GNDI = gross national disposable income • NFT = net unilateral transfers abroad • remittances, foreign aid • total income available

4. Current Account (NA) • Private sector net income = private sector income earned at home (Y or GDP) and abroad (NFP + NFT) payments from the government sector (transfers, TR, and interest on government debt, INT) – taxes paid to government (T) = Y + NFP+NFT + TR + INT – T • Public sector net income = taxes – transfers – interest payments = T – TR – INT

5. Current Account (NA) As a check: private income + public income = GNDI (Y + NFP + NFT + TR + INT – T ) + ( T – TR – INT ) = GDP + NFP+NFT = GNI + NFT = GNDI

6. Current Account (NA) Private and Public Saving • private saving = private income – consumption • public saving = public income – public purchases

7. Current Account (NA) National Saving = private saving + public saving

8. Current Account (NA) • S = Y + NFP + NFT – C – G • S = (C + I + G + NX) + NFP + NFT – C – G • S = I + (NX + NFP + NFT), set CA = NX+NFP+NFT • S = I + CA • CA = S – I savings-investment approach -if CA<0, then insufficient savings • CA = NX + NFP +NFT • = NX + (GNDI – GDP) • = NX + (GNDI – C –I – G – NX) • CA = GNDI – (C + I +G) absorption approach • -if CA<0, then living beyond means

9. Current Account (CA) Why Current Account Deficits? • CA = S – I • CA = Spvt + Sgovt – I • investment boom: generally good • fall in private saving: good or bad • Attending graduate school: good • Luxurious living: bad • fall in government saving: good or bad • Public investment : can be good • Running chronic deficits: bad

10. Current Account (BOP) Balance of Payments (BOP) Accounting • Why BOP Accounting? • BOP analysis helps us understand current account imbalances • BOP analysis helps us understand economic crisis driven by volatile international financial flows • The accounting record of a country’s international transactions

11. Current Account (BOP) Balance of payments accounting • Any transaction that involves a flow of funds into the United States is a credit (+) • item (enters with a plus sign); for example, exports • Any transaction involving a flow of funds out of the United States is a debit (–) • item (enters with a minus sign); for example, imports

12. Current Account (BOP)

13. Current Account (BOP) (1) Net exports of goods and services • services: • U.S. family vacations in Mexico—import of tourism services (debit, funds flow out of U.S.) • Foreign student in U.S.—export of education services (credit, funds flow into U.S.) (2) Net income from abroad (similar to NFP) • income receipts from abroad minus income payments to abroad • Income received from abroad is a credit item, since it causes funds to flow into the United States • Payment of income to foreigners is a debit item • Net income from abroad is part of the current account, and is about equal to NFP, net factor payments • Examples-U.S.: • (1) income from residents working abroad • (2) investment income from abroad…interest payments, dividends, royalties, etc. (3) Net unilateral transfers (similar to NFT) • Payments made from one country to another that do not correspond to a good, service, or asset (if they were, where would they be counted?) • Negative net unilateral transfers for United States, since United States is a net donor to other countries

14. Current Account (BOP) • Sum of net exports of goods and services, net income from abroad, and net unilateral transfers is the current account balance • Positive current account balance implies current account surplus • Negative current account balance implies current account deficit • Note: Can have CA<0 with NX>0 • you can have trade surplus and have massive debt payments (NFP)

15. The Rest of the BOP Capital and Financial Account • The capital account part • the net flow of unilateral transfers of assets (debt forgiveness, personal assets migrants take with them, transfer of real estate such as a military base or embassy) • The financial account part • trades in existing assets, either real (for example, buildings) or financial (for example, stocks and bonds) • FDI • Portfolio • debt • equity

16. The Rest of the BOP • Note: capital and financial account used to be called capital account…so it’s common to still here people say the “current account and the capital account” • “capital account crisis” • Most transactions appear in the financial account • When home country sells assets to foreign country, that is a capital inflow for the home country and a credit (+) item in the capital and financial account • U.S. government sells t-bills to foreigners • When assets are purchased from a foreign country, there is a capital outflow from the home country and a debit (–) item in the capital and financial account

17. The Rest of the BOP

18. The Rest of the BOP Relationship between the (1) current account and (2) The capital and financial account • Current account balance (CA) + capital and financial account balance (KFA) = 0 • CA + KFA = 0 by accounting; every transaction involves offsetting effects • In practice, measurement problems, recorded as a statistical discrepancy, prevent CA + KFA = 0 from holding exactly.

19. The Rest of the BOP The official settlements balance • Transactions in official reserve assets are conducted by central banks of countries • Official reserve assets are assets (foreign government securities, bank deposits, and SDRs of the IMF, gold) used in making international payments • Central banks buy (or sell) official reserve assets with (or to obtain) their own currencies • Official settlements balance • (1) Also called the balance of payments, it equals the net increase in a country’s official reserve assets • (2) For the United States, the net increase in official reserve assets is the rise in U.S. government reserve assets minus foreign central bank holdings of U.S. dollar assets • Having a balance of payments surplus means a country is increasing its official reserve assets; a balance of payments deficit is a reduction in official reserve assets

20. National Wealth National Wealth and the balance of payments accounts • National Wealth = domestic physical assets + net foreign assets • Net foreign assets (NFA) are a country’s foreign assets minus its foreign liabilities • foreign assets: foreign stocks, bonds, and factories • foreign liabilities: domestic and financial assets owned by foreigners • NFA changes due to (1) value change and (2) through acquisition of new assets or liabilities

21. National Wealth • A current account surplus implies a capital and financial account deficit, and thus a net increase in holdings of foreign assets • a financial outflow…excess savings to the world and getting in return (1) IOUs, or (2) other assets, or (3) foreign liabilities reduced • A current account deficit implies a capital and financial account surplus, and thus a net decline in holdings of foreign assets • a financial inflow…pulling in excess savings from the world and giving out(1) IOUs, or (2) other assets, or (3) or reducing foreign assets) • International Investment Position = NFA • International Investment Position≠ External Debt • however, large portions of current account deficits are often finance by external debt

22. National Wealth • U.S. International Investment Position • Largest “debtor” to the world in absolute dollars ($2.43 trillion, 2003, 22% of GDP) • What really matters is not size of net foreign liabilities but country’s wealth (physical and human capital) • If net foreign liabilities rises and wealth rises, there’s no problem (collateral offsets debt) • U.S. wealth isn’t rising as much as net foreign liabilities which is worrisome