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Youth Corrections Forecast

Youth Corrections Forecast. September 24 th , 2019 1:30 – 3:30, Conference Room B. Agenda. Introductions 2019-21 Adopted Budget Youth population Juvenile Felony Referrals DOC Bed preliminary forecast PSR Bed preliminary forecast DBA Bed preliminary forecast

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Youth Corrections Forecast

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  1. Youth Corrections Forecast September 24th, 2019 1:30 – 3:30, Conference Room B

  2. Agenda • Introductions • 2019-21 Adopted Budget • Youth population • Juvenile Felony Referrals • DOC Bed preliminary forecast • PSR Bed preliminary forecast • DBA Bed preliminary forecast • OYA-Probation preliminary forecast • Total Close Custody forecast • Future meeting dates

  3. 2019 Estimated from first half counts.

  4. Dept. of Corrections Youth • Forecast errors • Preliminary Forecast

  5. DOC Youth Forecast Errors Red line indicates average error (-25 beds)

  6. DOC Youth Prelim Forecast

  7. Public Safety Reserve Youth • Forecast errors • Preliminary Forecast

  8. PSR Youth Forecast Errors Red line indicates average error (2.0 beds)

  9. PSR Youth Prelim Forecast

  10. Discretionary Close Custody and OYA-Probation Demand • Demand equals the number of youth deemed appropriate for a particular setting as calculated in Youth Reformation System Research. • Where OYA-Probation and Discretionary Close Custody have similar scores (5% gray area), we split 50/50 between the two. • Where Community and OYA-Probation have similar scores, we choose Community.

  11. Preliminary forecast specifics • Data snapshot of youth in the system as of 1/20/2019 • Same decision rules as employed in prior forecast vis-à-vis assignment to “most appropriate” setting. • Future growth a function of projected growth in the 12-17 age population per OEA Demographic forecast.

  12. Dataset Characteristics

  13. Dataset Counts – Recent Forecasts 1/20 and 7/20 correspond to the 4/15 and 10/15 forecasts, respectively

  14. Cycle-to-cycle Churn

  15. Forecast Data Matrix (Jan. 20)

  16. Forecast Data Females in OYA Probation = 48, Close Custody = 51

  17. Discretionary Close Custody

  18. DBA Estimates over time 1/20 and 7/20 correspond to the 4/15 and 10/15 forecasts, respectively

  19. Total Close Custody

  20. Residential Estimates over time

  21. Residential Forecast

  22. Upcoming Meetings • October 8th, 1:30 – 3:30, Conference Call (if necessary) April 15th, 2020 Forecast Cycle • March 24th, 1:30 – 3:30, Location TBD • April 7th, 1:30 – 3:30, Conference Call (if necessary)

  23. Thank you • Questions? • All materials can be found on the OEA website: https://www.oregon.gov/das/OEA/Pages/forecastoya.aspx • Michael Kennedy • Phone: (503) 378-5732 • Email: michael.kennedy@oregon.gov

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