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South Coast Rail

South Coast Rail. Secondary and Cumulative Impacts ICG Meeting November 2009. Kristina Egan South Coast Rail Manager Executive Office of Transportation. Secondary Impacts.

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South Coast Rail

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  1. South Coast Rail Secondary and Cumulative Impacts ICG Meeting November 2009 Kristina Egan South Coast Rail Manager Executive Office of Transportation

  2. Secondary Impacts Secondary impacts are defined as those impacts caused by the proposed project that occur later in time and removed in distance, but are still reasonably foreseeable. Those impacts that may result from the growth induced by the South Coast Rail project outside of the direct (or primary) property.

  3. The impact on the environment which results from the incremental impact of the action when added to other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable future actions regardless of what agency (Federal or non-Federal) or person undertakes such other actions. Cumulative impacts can result from individually minor but collectively significant actions taking place over a period of time. (40 CFR § 1508.7) • Cumulative Impacts

  4. SCR 31 Communities • 4 RI communities • Tiverton • Portsmouth • Bristol • Warren • 2030 • Study Area

  5. Develop Household, Jobs Distributions • No-Build 2030 • Scenario 1 – Induced Growth +No-Build • Scenario 2 – Smart Growth – Redistribution of induced = to PDAs • Alternatives • Attleboro Electric • Stoughton Electric • Rapid Bus • Evaluate Secondary Impacts using Metrics • Evaluate Cumulative Impacts • Methodology

  6. Secondary Impact Metrics – Per Household (average)

  7. Alternatives differ in where induced growth occurs • Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 differ in where total growth occurs (for each alternative) • Growth - Households

  8. Assumptions – Scenario 1 • Induced growth greatest in communities with new stations and service • Assumptions- Scenario 2 • Overall 30% of total baseline and induced growth shifts to PDAs • 25% of growth in “neutral areas” shifts • 50% of growth in PPAs shifts • Low scenario – impacts reduced over baseline by 21% • High scenario – impacts reduced by 30% • Assumptions

  9. Induced Growth – Attleboro Alternative

  10. Induced Growth- Stoughton Alternative

  11. Induced Growth – Rapid Bus Alternative

  12. Total Growth – No-Build Alternative

  13. Total Growth – Attleboro Alternative

  14. Total Growth – Stoughton Alternative

  15. Total Growth – Rapid Bus Alternative

  16. Land Use Impacts (ac)

  17. Forest Impacts (ac)

  18. Farmland Impacts (ac)

  19. Biodiversity Impacts – Quality (ac)

  20. Water Demand (mGPD)

  21. Scenario 2 anticipated to be lower due to more efficient heating but no metrics available • Residential GHG Emissions (tpy)

  22. VMT (daily, in million vmt)

  23. Induced growth is 1.8 to 2.8% of baseline growth (98% of future growth is No-Build) • Attleboro 2.8 • Stoughton 2.7 • Rapid Bus 1.8 • Smart Growth Measures substantially reduce growth-related impacts compared to the No-Build Alternative by 21-30% • Secondary Impacts

  24. Past trends • Future without the project (No-Build) • Future with the project (each alternative) • Direct effects of constructing/operating • Secondary growth effects • Cumulative Impacts

  25. Based on the Electric Alternatives – includes all regional background mobile sources plus the South Coast Rail alternatives • Cumulative Impacts – GHG (Mtpy CO2)

  26. Cumulative Impacts – Land Conversion (ac)

  27. Cumulative Impacts – Rare Species

  28. Build Alternatives have similar cumulative effects across all resources • Build Alternatives result in minor additive adverse effects in comparison to No-Build • Build Alternative with Smart Growth Measures (Scenario 2) has beneficial cumulative effects on all resources • Cumulative Impacts - Summary

  29. Questions?

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