‘TIL LAWS DO US PART?: THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN DIVORCE LAWS ON DIVORCE RATES IN MEXICO

1. ‘TIL LAWS DO US PART?: THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN DIVORCE LAWS ON DIVORCE RATES IN MEXICO Nellie Lew University of California, Santa Barbara lew@econ.ucsb.edu Trinidad Beleche University of California, Riverside trinidad.beleche@email.ucr.edu Abstract Demographic Characteristics of States That Liberalize Divorce Laws Are Similar To Those That Don’t Data • State-based panel data of all divorces, 1993-2005 (INEGI) • Rich set of covariates • State Civil Codes During the 1990s many states in Mexico began to reform their divorce civil codes by adopting more liberal provisions. At the same time divorce rates in Mexico have been rising. Using a panel of state-level Mexican data from 1993 to 2005, we examine the impact of law changes that relax the grounds for divorce on a state’s divorce rate. Our difference-in-difference estimation suggests that liberalization of the divorce laws did not contribute to an increase in the divorce rate. Model • We regress divorce rates on a law change indicator, controlling for state, year fixed-effects, and state-specific linear trends 1 4 7 Divorce Rates and Divorce Law Adoption Results Divorce Rates Have Almost Doubled 2 5 8 States Have Also Expanded Their Divorce Laws Variation in the Timing of Divorce Law Adoption Conclusion • Unlike claims that easier divorce leads to an increase in divorce rates, we find that liberalization of divorce laws did not significantly impact divorce rates. • Although not statistically significant, our estimates indicate that changes in divorce laws account for at most 19% of the doubling in Mexico’s divorce rates that occurred between 1993 and 2005. • Controlling for dynamic effects on changes in divorce laws we find no evidence of a persistent impact. 3 6 9