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Real Options and Other Topics in Capital Budgeting

Chapter 13. Identifying Embedded Options Valuing Real Options in Projects. Real Options and Other Topics in Capital Budgeting. What is real option analysis?.

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Real Options and Other Topics in Capital Budgeting

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  1. Chapter 13 • Identifying Embedded Options • Valuing Real Options in Projects Real Options and Other Topics in Capital Budgeting

  2. What is real option analysis? • Real options exist when managers can influence the size and riskiness of a project’s cash flows by taking different actions during the project’s life. • Real option analysis incorporates typical NPV budgeting analysis with an analysis for opportunities resulting from managers’ decisions.

  3. What are some examples of real options? • Growth/expansion options • Abandonment/shutdown options • Investment timing options • Flexibility options

  4. Investment Timing Option • Project X has an up-front cost of $100,000. The project is expected to produce after-tax cash flows of $33,500 at the end of each of the next four years (t = 1, 2, 3, and 4). The project has a WACC=10%. • The project’s NPV is $6,190. Therefore, it appears that the company should go ahead with the project. • However, if the company waits a year they will find out more about the project’s expected cash flows.

  5. Investment Timing Option • If they wait a year: • There is a 50% chance the market will be strong and the expected cash flows will be $43,500 a year for four years. • There is a 50% chance the market will be weak and the expected cash flows will be $23,500 a year for four years. • The project’s initial cost will remain $100,000, but it will be incurred at t = 1 only if it makes sense at that time to proceed with the project. • Should the company go ahead with the project today or wait for more information?

  6. Investment Timing Decision Tree • At WACC = 10%, the NPV at t = 1 is: • $37,889, if CF’s are $43,500 per year, or • -$25,508, if CF’s are $23,500 per year, in which case the firm would not proceed with the project. -$100,000 43,500 43,500 43,500 43,500 50% prob. -$100,000 23,500 23,500 23,500 23,500 50% prob. 0 1 2 3 4 5 Years

  7. Should we wait or proceed? • If we proceed today, NPV = $6,190. • If we wait one year, Expected NPV at t = 1 is 0.5($37,889) + 0.5(0) = $18,944.57, which is worth $18,944.57 / 1.10 = $17,222.34 in today’s dollars (assuming a 10% WACC). • Therefore, it makes sense to wait.

  8. Issues to Consider with Investment Timing Options • What is the appropriate discount rate? • Note that increased volatility makes the option to delay more attractive. • If instead, there was a 50% chance the subsequent CFs will be $53,500 a year, and a 50% chance the subsequent CFs will be $13,500 a year, expected NPV next year (if we delay) would be: 0.5($69,588) + 0.5(0) = $34,794 > $18,945

  9. Factors to Consider When Deciding When to Invest • Delaying the project means that cash flows come later rather than sooner. • It might make sense to proceed today if there are important advantages to being the first competitor to enter a market. • Waiting may allow you to take advantage of changing conditions.

  10. 0 1 2 3 10% -$200,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 NPV = -$1,051.84 Abandonment/Shutdown Option • Project Y has an initial, up-front cost of $200,000, at t = 0. The project is expected to produce after-tax net cash flows of $80,000 for the next three years. • At a 10% WACC, what is Project Y’s NPV?

  11. Abandonment Option • Project Y’s A-T net cash flows depend critically upon customer acceptance of the product. • There is a 60% probability that the product will be wildly successful and produce A-T net CFs of $150,000, and a 40% chance it will produce annual A-T net CFs of -$25,000.

  12. Abandonment Decision Tree • If the customer uses the product, NPV is $173,027.80. • If the customer does not use the product, NPV is -$262,171.30. 150,000 150,000 150,000 60% prob. -$200,000 -25,000 -25,000 -25,000 40% prob. 0 1 2 3 Years

  13. Issues with Abandonment Options • The company does not have the option to delay the project. • The company may abandon the project after a year, if the customer has not adopted the product. • If the project is abandoned, there will be no operating costs incurred nor cash inflows received after the first year.

  14. NPV with Abandonment Option • If the customer uses the product, NPV is $173,027.80. • If the customer does not use the product, NPV is -$222,727.27. 150,000 150,000 150,000 60% prob. -$200,000 -25,000 40% prob. 0 1 2 3 Years

  15. Should an abandonment option affect a project’s WACC? • Yes, an abandonment option should have an effect on the WACC. • The abandonment option reduces risk, and therefore reduces the WACC.

  16. Growth Option • Project Z has an initial cost of $500,000. • The project is expected to produce A-T cash inflows of $100,000 at the end of each of the next five years, and has a WACC of 12%. It clearly has a negative NPV. • There is a 10% chance the project will lead to subsequent opportunities that have an NPV of $3,000,000 at t = 5, and a 90% chance of an NPV of -$1,000,000 at t = 5.

  17. NPV with the Growth Option • At WACC = 12%, • NPV of top branch (10% prob) = $1,562,758.19 • NPV of lower branch (90% prob) = -$139,522.38 $3,000,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 10% prob. -$1,000,000 -$500,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 90% prob. 0 1 2 3 4 5 Years

  18. NPV with the Growth Option • If the project’s future opportunities have a negative NPV, the company would choose not to pursue them. • The bottom branch only has the -$500,000 initial outlay and the $100,000 annual cash flows, which lead to an NPV of -$139,522. • The expected value of this project should be: NPV = 0.1($1,562,758) + 0.9(-$139,522) = $30,706.

  19. Flexibility Options • Flexibility options exist when it’s worth spending money today, which enables you to maintain flexibility down the road.

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