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Parents, local house prices and leaving home in Britain

This study examines how parental background and local house prices influence the timing and household destinations of young adults leaving their parental home in Britain. The findings highlight the importance of parental factors, such as income, education, and homeownership, in shaping the likelihood of leaving home. Local house prices also play a moderate role in the decision to leave later. The research is supported by the Economic and Social Research Council and conducted using the Understanding Society Waves 1-5 data.

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Parents, local house prices and leaving home in Britain

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  1. Parents, local house prices and leaving home in Britain Sait Bayrakdar and Rory Coulter University College London The Understanding Society Scientific Conference 2017 11-13 July, University of Essex

  2. Relevance • Leaving parental home is an important step of the transition to independent living for young adults • An important indicator of later life-outcomes (poverty risk, housing career) • A significant factor influencing other life-course decisions such as partnership and fertility • Important for parents and family dynamics • Resources, privacy, relationships with children, behaviours of young people and their siblings

  3. Relevance • Recent changes to affect home leaving patterns of millennials • Changes to housing market • Global Financial Crisis • Changes to life course events

  4. Background Early exits facilitated by range of factors: • Individual characteristics and socio-economic position (Berrington and Murphy, 1994; Iacovou, 2010; Stone et al 2011; 2014) • Life events (Thomas and Mulder 2016, Stone et al, 2014) • Parental background on home-leaving (Blaauboer, 2010)

  5. Background Cross-national evidence people leave home more quickly where housing (especially in the rental sector) is affordable and accessible (Mandic, 2008). Work by Ermisch (1999) & Ermisch and Di Salvo (1997) suggested higher regional house prices reduce exits, especially to partnership To what extent is this still/less/more strongly the case? • Intergenerational effects (social disparities) • Local housing markets (spatial disparities)

  6. Research questions How do parental background and local house prices influence the timing and household destinations of young adults’ transitions out of the parental home? Focus: • Young people aged 16-30 in parental home at t who completed an interview (cf. Ermisch, 1999) • Understanding Society Waves 1-5 (2009-2015) • Local Authority house prices from ONS House Price Index • N= 10047 (49.58% men, 50.42% women)

  7. Data Four outcomes where young people go at t+1 from parental home • Independent variables: • Parental characteristics: education, income, tenure, • District characteristics: house price • Control for several individual, parental and district-level factors Multilevel random intercepts probit models Heckman selection models

  8. Key findings Source: Understanding Society Note; * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001; controlled for age, sex, having partner or/and child at parental home, health, unemployment, being in education, income, household size,price change, density, unemployment

  9. Predicted Probabilities • To isolate how parental factors and local house prices shape departures • 8 scenarios • Male and female • Advantaged and disadvantage profile background: • Both biological parents or not • Parental homeownership or social/private sector • Parent with a degree or not • £4500/month or £1750/month income • High-cost vs low-cost district (2015 HP) • £121000 (Bridgend, South Ayrshire, or Wakefield) • £225000 (Barking and Dagenham, Edinburgh, or Worthing)

  10. Predicted probability of leaving home to all destinations

  11. Predicted probability of leaving home to partnership

  12. Predicted probability of leaving home to live alone or with others

  13. Discussion Parental factors are important: • With the exception of partnership destination • Living with both parents is associated with lower likelihood to leave • Parental income and education help individuals to leave early • Income effect is conditioned on age! • Parental home ownership decreases the likelihood of leaving only for other destinations. Moderate house price effect: • Those living in high-cost districts are more likely to leave later.

  14. Acknowledgements This research is supported by an Economic and Social Research Council Future Research Leaders award [ES/L009498/1]. Financial support from the Isaac Newton Trust is also gratefully acknowledged. The United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) is conducted by the Institute for Social and Economic Research at the University of Essex. UKHLS data were accessed via the UK Data Service. Neither the original collectors of the data nor the UK Data Service bear any responsibility for the analyses or interpretations presented in this study. This paper is accepted for Population, Space, and Place. Thank you! s.bayrakdar@ucl.ac.uk

  15. References (1) Aquilino WS. 1991. Family structure and home-leaving: A further specification of the relationship. Journal of Marriage and Family53(4): 999–1010.   Arnett JJ. 2000. Emerging adulthood: A theory of development from the late teens through the twenties. American Psychologist55(5): 469–480. Arundel R and Ronald R. 2016. Parental co-residence, shared living and emerging adulthood in Europe: semi-dependent housing across welfare regime and housing system contexts. Journal of Youth Studies19(7): 885–905. Berrington A, Duta A and Wakeling P. 2017. Youth social citizenship and class inequalities in transitions to adulthood in the UK. ESRCCentre for Population ChangeWorking Paper81. ESRC Centre for Population Change: Southampton. Available at: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/publications/cpc_working_papers.php (accessed 28/03/17). Berrington A and Stone J. 2014. Young adults’ transitions to residential independence in the UK: The role of social and housing policy. In Young People and Social Policy in Europe: Dealing with Risk, Inequality and Precarity in Times of Crisis, Antonucci L, Hamilton M and Roberts S. (eds.). Palgrave Macmillan: Basingstoke; 210–235. Billari FC and Liefbroer AC. 2010. Towards a new pattern of transition to adulthood? Advances in Life Course Research15(2–3): 59–75. Billari FC, Liefbroer AC. 2007. Should I stay or should I go? The impact of age norms on leaving home. Demography44(1): 181–198. Buck N and Scott J. 1993. She’s leaving home: but why? An analysis of young people leaving the parental home. Journal of Marriage and the Family55(4): 863–874.

  16. References (2) Knies G (ed.) 2016. Society – UK Household Longitudinal Study: Wave 1-6, 2009-2015, User Manual. University of Essex: Colchester. le Blanc D and Wolff FC. 2006. Leaving home in Europe: The role of parents’ and children’s incomes. Review of Economics of the Household 4(1): 53–73. Lennartz C, Arundel R and Ronald R. 2016. Younger adults and homeownership in Europe through the Global Financial Crisis. Population, Space and Place 22(8): 823-835. McKee K. 2012. Young people, homeownership and future welfare. Housing Studies 27(6): 853–862. Mandic S. 2008. Home-leaving and its structural determinants in Western and Eastern Europe: An exploratory study. Housing Studies 23(4): 615–637. Mulder CH. 2013. Family dynamics and housing: Conceptual issues and empirical findings. Demographic Research 29(14): 355–378. Mulder CH and Clark WAV. 2000. Leaving home and leaving the state: Evidence from the United States. International Journal of Population Geography 6(6): 423-437. Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2015. Families and households: 2015. Office for National Statistics: Newport. ONS. 2016. Development of a Single Official House Price Index. Office for National Statistics: Newport. Redfern Review. 2016. The Redfern Review into the Decline of Home Ownership. Available at: http://www.redfernreview.org/ (accessed 28/03/17).

  17. References (3) Roberts S. 2013. Youth studies, housing transitions and the “missing middle”: Time for a rethink? Sociological Research Online 18(3): 1–12. Shelter. 2014. The clipped wing generation: Analysis of adults living at home with their parents. Shelter: London. South SJ and Lei L. 2015. Failures-to-launch and boomerang kids: Contemporary determinants of leaving and returning to the parental home. Social Forces Advance Access. DOI: 10.1093/sf/sov064. Stone J, Berrington A and Falkingham J. 2014. Gender, turning points, and boomerangs: returning home in young adulthood in Great Britain. Demography 51(1): 257–276. Stone J, Berrington A and Falkingham J. 2011. The changing determinants of UK young adults´ living arrangements. Demographic Research 25(20): 629–666. University of Essex. Institute for Social and Economic Research. (2015). Understanding Society: Waves 1-5, 2009-2014. [data collection]. 7th Edition. UK Data Service. SN: 6614, http://dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-6614-7. Wall R. 1983. The household: Demographic and economic change in England, 1650-1970. In Family Forms in Historic Europe, Wall R, Robin J and Laslett P (eds.). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge; 493–512.

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