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Biofuels for 21st Century Energy Economy Analysis

Explore the potential of biofuels in the renewable energy landscape for a sustainable future. Delve into biomass supply, ethanol production, and the shift towards electric vehicles. Understand the challenges and opportunities in transitioning to cleaner energy sources.

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Biofuels for 21st Century Energy Economy Analysis

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  1. Biofuels for the 21st century renewable energy economy John Perona, Ph.D., LL.M. Professor of Environmental Biochemistry Portland State University Oregon Health & Science University 2035 Toyota “Algaeus”?

  2. OUR CARBON BUDGET 32 Gt CO2 (2016) Remaining CO2 budget: < 1000 Gt Fossil/cement Land use Cumulative CO2 emitted Data from IPCC-AR5

  3. CARBON BUDGET REALITY CHECK (aka, How Fast do we need to act?)

  4. United States energy consumption (EIA) Still at almost 80% fossil fuel

  5. U.S. emissions CO2: 82% Methane: 10% N2O: 5% HFC/CFC: 3%

  6. US CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion Total combustion emissions “on site” = 25% of CO2 from fossil fuels (I+R+C) We have to solve: • Electricity (40%) • Direct combustion (25%) • Transportation (35%) 2012 emissions

  7. Oregon energy profile Home heating 49% electricity (70% renewable in OR) 38% natural gas (very hard to substitute) ~10% wood burning Residential combustion (6% of US CO2) • home heating (gas, small % oil) • kitchen stove = gas • clothes dryer = gas Convert most on-site residential combustion to electricity… Data from EIA

  8. 19% CO2 emissions from direct combustion in commercial and industrial sectors Which fuels -natural gas -some petroleum? Which operations in C and I sectors? -how to electrify? a job for engineers… 2012 emissions

  9. 5 critical elements determine pathways http://deepdecarbonization.org US DDPP Report – Energy-Economy Model

  10. US DDPP Energy-Economy Model Pathway 4 main pathways all include a key role for biomass [liquid fuels; pipeline gas (fuel switching)]

  11. Biomass supply and allocation in DDPP • Production of renewable pipeline gas. Huge in DDPP • Ethanol/biodiesel sources of liquid fuel • Negative emissions bioenergy/CCS 2016 DOE Billion Ton Study: ~360 million dry tons taken in 2014 From 2005 study

  12. UCS projections of safely removable biomass Total removable = 677 million dry tons -54 billion gals of EtOH OR -19% of electric power (2012) • Energy crops (tall grasses, fast growing trees • Municipal waste • Agricultural residue (within soil sustainability) • Forest biomass

  13. Take home message Figure out how to electrify most on-site combustion in commercial and industrial sectors (gas/oil) Large-scale biomass gasification to significantly reduce emissions probably won’t happen Neither will the hydrogen economy…

  14. Petroleum and biofuel production Present US petroleum use: ~300 billion gallons per year • Gasoline - 240 billion gpy • Diesel fuel – 60 billion gpy Existing biofuels sources in the US • Corn ethanol – blend w/gasoline (15B gpy) • Cellulosic ethanol – blend w/gasoline (0.1B gpy) • Biodiesel – blend w/diesel, or neat (2.0B gpy)

  15. Many consumer products are made from petroleum Biomass is the ONLY other source for energy-rich carbon

  16. Corn ethanol • Present production – 15 billion gpy. Preeminent biofuel • Consumes 40% of corn crop. Land limited. Food vs fuel. • Poor energy return on energy invested (EREI): • Range 0.65 – 1.6 And energy content = 65% of gasoline • Volume mandates –federal renewable fuels standard • Ethanol “blend wall” limits market. E10 near max. US gasoline engines cannot use above E15 • WHY?? Blend with gasoline

  17. Energy Storage Technology – the key to wind and solar expansion AND the demise of ethanol Paris 2015: widespread agreement on the importance of storage to safeguard grid reliability and meet INDCs New 2017 US tax bill: • preserves full range of incentives for renewable energy • preserves electric vehicle tax credits: $7500 -phases out when >200,000 vehicles sold by a given manufacturer -GM, Tesla unhappy; BMW, VW, Volvo happy • Why? 2016 jobs: Clean energy: 3.38 million Fossil fuels: 2.99 million

  18. Aggressive adoption of EVs 2017 Bloomberg report • Inflection point expected in 2025-2030 when • unsubsidized EV prices fully competitive • Falling battery prices • Increased commitments from automakers

  19. Other predictions about EV global markets from the 2017 Bloomberg report • Market shift from luxury niche to mainstream within 10 years • Battery EV’s (BEVs) take over from plug-ins (PHEVs) by mid 2020s – much simpler technology • 60-fold growth in lithium ion battery demand by 2030 • 300-fold growth in electricity consumption from EVs by 2040 – grid management issues • Displace over 300 million gallons of fossil fuel for transportation, per day, by 2040

  20. What’s driving the battery storage revolution?

  21. Wind and solar energy are already cheapest Levelized cost – compares all costs over entire lifetime of a facility: includes construction and operation

  22. US Electricity Grid Four basic components: -individual generators (nuclear, wind etc) -long-distance transmission lines (high voltage, DC) -local distribution networks -end users

  23. US Electricity Grid Operation I. Capacity Factor = actual output/ maximum output II. Flexibility of operation: coal and nuclear are difficult to ramp up/down; natural gas is easy III. Intermittency: wind and solar outputs not constant, this puts a high value on energy storage technology

  24. Energy Storage Technologies: discharge times, applications, power ratings

  25. Petroleum and biofuel production Present US petroleum use: ~300 billion gallons per year • Gasoline - 240 billion gpy. Demand ↓ • Diesel fuel – 60 billion gpy. Demand ? Existing biofuels sources in the US • Corn ethanol – blend w/gasoline (15B gpy) • Cellulosic ethanol – blend w/gasoline (0.1B gpy) • Biodiesel – blend w/diesel, or neat (2.0B gpy)

  26. Cellulosic ethanol • No competition with food crops • Improved EREIs compared to corn • Federal mandate enacted in 2007 • 4 billion gallons in 2016 • Production in 2014 = 32 million gal. • Difficult to process plant material. • Feedstocks abundant corn stover switchgrass municipal solid waste

  27. Biodiesel from plants High energy content Substitute for diesel, not gasoline Soybeans #1 source • 2015 production is 1.9 billion gallons. COULD BE RAMPED • Much better EREI than corn ethanol • Low volume mandates in federal renewable fuels standard

  28. Types of Biodiesel Fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) • B5 or B20 blends with petroleum diesel • Poor cold weather performance • Not approved at high blending ratios • Lifecycle GHG emissions: 25-30% of petroleum Renewable biodiesel (hydrogenated) • Closely resembles petroleum diesel • Can function as a drop-in fuels, up to B100 • Lifecycle GHG emissions: 25-30% of petroleum • Source of energy-rich hydrogen needed

  29. Policy framework for biofuels • Electric cars  Gasoline demand will go down So ethanol blend demand will also go down • Diesel applications very hard to electrify. • Switch land from corn to soybeans • For remaining ethanol, switch to cellulosic • Incentivize diesel engine manufacturers to improve engines for both biodiesel types • Reframe the federal renewable fuels standard

  30. Clean Air Act §7545 Billions of gallons mandated 2010 2012 2015 2022 Renewable fuel 12.9 15.2 20.5 36.0 Advanced Biofuel 0.95 2.0 5.5 21.0 Cellulosic “Biofuel” 0.1 0.5 3.0 16.0 Biomass-based Diesel 0.65 1.0 TBD TBD • Cellulosic targets are not and cannot be met • Biodiesel targets set by regulation every year • Attempt to “technology force” cellulosic biofuel failed

  31. California’s LCFS Program • 10% reduction in carbon intensity of fuels by 2020 • Under CA exemption in the CAA – other states may follow No requirements for specific fuel types BUT 87% of credits are for biofuels (2011-2014) • Biodiesel gets more credit than Ethanol (lifetime GGs) Ethanol credits decreased from 90% to 54% (2011-2014) Biodiesel credits increased from 9% to 42% (2011-2014) • 10% mandate will be easily reached • CA’s Cap & Trade law now also regulates transportation fuels (as of 2015)

  32. California’s LCFS appears to be working Data from UCS

  33. Current state of play Ethanol limits: blend wall and energy-poor fuel Biodiesel is a superior fuel and commodities feedstock vs. ethanol But - arable land limits: Fuel vs food Market opportunity: Biodiesel on nonarable land!

  34. Processing pathway for algal biodiesel Sunlight + CO2 Cell paste Crude algal oil Refining Photosynthetic microalgae Closed photobioreactor design

  35. Sapphire Energy Co. Green Crude Farm Open Pond Design 100 acre commercial demonstration scale algae production farm 1 million gal/yr target Columbus, New Mexico DOE $50M funding. EA/FONSI 2011 Land use estimates (Sapphire, others): 60 billion gal/yr algal oil  19 million acres [15 bgy/yr corn ethanol ~ 40 million acres land]

  36. Algae are very demanding…

  37. Resources for Algaculture • Algae grow on wastewater or saline waters • Agricultural runoff or municipal wastewater streams • each provide both water and nutrients • Algae require external CO2

  38. Climate DOE Algae Roadmap, 2010 Most favorable climate conditions (sunlight, temperature, >200 days/year)

  39. Water, CO2, Nutrients (P, N) DOE Algae Roadmap, 2010 Fossil fuel CO2 sources (CCS) within 20 miles of municipal wastewater facility in favorable climate Major limitation: CO2 availability from CCS (10 billion gpy) AND Coal, Methane power plants will be phased out Only likely solution: genetic engineering of algae

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