Understanding Strategy Effectiveness in Epidemiology

1. xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Why Evaluate? Did the prevention strategy work? Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

2. Where are we and where are we going? 1. How is this disease distributed and what hypotheses might explain that distribution? 2. Is there an association between the hypothesized cause and the disease? 3. Is the association causal? 4. What should individuals and society do when preventable causes of disease are found? 5. Did the prevention strategy work? Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

3. Hypotheses 1 How is this disease distributed? 2 Is there an association? 3 Is the association causal? 4 What should be done to prevent the disease? Was it worth the effort? Should we continue it? 5 Did the prevention strategy work? Where are we and where are we going? What’s my hypothesis? Did the exposure and the disease turn up together? Why did the exposure and the disease turn up together? What should I do? What should society do? Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

4. Why Evaluate? Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

5. Review Epi Speak Ethical In accordance with the accepted principles of right and wrong governing the conduct of a group. Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

6. Review Epi Speak Risk A measure of how often an event occurs in a defined group of people in a defined period of time. The likelihood of developing a disease. Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

7. Review Epi Speak Risk Management Steps taken to reduce the levels of risk to which an individual or a population is exposed. Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

8. Review Actual Evidence of Risk Perception of Risk Acceptability of Risk Risk Management Strategy Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

9. Epi Speak Epi Speak Strategy Evaluation A scientific investigation of the effectiveness of a risk management strategy. Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

10. Why Evaluate? Why Evaluate? Reasons to Evaluate Learn if the strategy is working Stop wasting, time, energy, and money Ensure public is not mislead Learn if a new strategy is needed Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

11. Why Evaluate? Why Evaluate? Reasons to Evaluate Reasons Not to Evaluate Learn if the strategy is working Save time, energy, and money Stop wasting, time, energy, and money Avoid having to admit that you were wrong Ensure public is not mislead Avoid embarrassment Learn if a new strategy is needed Avoid having people mad at you Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

12. Why Evaluate? Why Evaluate? Reasons to Evaluate Reasons Not to Evaluate Learn if the strategy is working Save time, energy, and money Stop wasting, time, energy, and money Avoid having to admit that you were wrong Ensure public is not mislead Avoid embarrassment Learn if a new strategy is needed Avoid having people mad at you Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

13. WA MT OR ND ME ID MN MI VT NH SD WI WY NY MA MI CT RI NV IA NE PA UT NJ CA OH IL CO IN MD DE WV KS MO VA KY AZ NC TN OK NM AR SC AL GA MS TX LA FL United States Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

14. Missouri Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

15. HWY 67 I-270 ST LOUIS HWY 367 MISSOURI COUNTY PAGE AVE. I-70 OLIVE BLVD. CITY of I-270 I-170 ST LOUIS CLARKSON RD. I-64 I-44 LINDBERGH BLVD. MANCHESTER RD. ILLINOIS I-55 St. Louis County Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

16. Epi Teams Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

17. Epi Log Worksheet Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

18. 1 Good Idea? Ordinance Number: 20193 ■ Is the strategy aimed at a behavior that has potential to reduce the undesired outcome―violence? ■ Is the strategy aimed at the right people? Children under age 17? ■ Will the strategy achieve the shorter term goal of reducing access to violent video games? ■ Will this strategy be accepted and supported by the community? ■ Are there adequate resources to enforce the strategy? Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

19. 2 Will the strategy reduce violence? • Arguments For Success • Arguments Against Success Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

20. 3 Should the strategy be evaluated? Video games in this establishment which are marked with a red dot may contain graphic violence not suitable for persons under age 17. Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

21. Why Evaluate? Reasons to Evaluate Reasons Not to Evaluate Learn if the strategy is working Save time, energy, and money Stop wasting, time, energy, and money Avoid having to admit that you were wrong Ensure public is not mislead Avoid embarrassment Learn if a new strategy is needed Avoid having people mad at you 4 What might happen if it is not evaluated? Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

22. - 5 How should the strategy be evaluated? Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

23. 6 Found Ineffective? Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

24. - 7 Ethical? Ordinance 20193 First Time Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

25. - 8 Ethical? Ordinance 20193 After Time Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

26. xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Essential Question 5 Did the prevention strategy work? Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

27. Did the prevention strategy work? Save time, energy, and money Avoid having to admit you were wrong Avoid embarrassment Avoid having people mad at you Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

28. Did the prevention strategy work? Save time, energy, and money Learn if the strategy is working Avoid having to admit you were wrong Stop wasting, time, energy, and money Avoid embarrassment Ensure public is not mislead Avoid having people mad at you Learn if a new strategy is needed Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?

29. Investigation 5-1 has ended. CDC Why Evaluate? Intro to Epidemiology – Investigation 5-1: Why Evaluate?