Potomac River Basin and Shared Vision Planning

1. Potomac River Basin and Shared Vision Planning Mark Lorie Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin Rockville, MD September 3,2008

2. ICPRB Background • Established in 1940 by Congress to help the states enhance, protect and conserve water and land resources of the Potomac • Purpose is to pursue sound water management through inter-governmental cooperation and collaboration • Historically focused on water quality • Role in water quantity was added separately in 1970s 3:20

3. Overview • Water supply for the DC metro area • Background on cooperative water management for DC metro area • Shared vision planning • Future of SVP and Potomac Water management 4:18

4. 4:48 • Nearly 6 million people in the basin • Over 4 million in the DC area served by three major suppliers, 75% of their water is supplied by free flowing Potomac River • Sensitive ecosystems, including the estuary and Chesapeake Bay, and the Great Falls Gorge • Highly prized fisheries and whitewater streams in the headwaters • Enormous development pressure because of booming D.C. metro area

5. 388 MGD Potomac River Hydrology 7:23

6. Potomac River Hydrology 8:27

7. Potomac River Hydrology 8:52

8. How to meet future demand? • Low flow of 1966 was less than projected demands for the 1980s • Utilities knew they didn’t have enough water • Corps of Engineers proposed 16 reservoirs, eventually narrowed down to 6 • Public opposition, funding problems led to stalemate • ICPRB/JHU study led to a novel solution 9:17

9. Breaking the Impasse • ICPRB and JHU: optimization model showed few reservoirs needed IF the water suppliers coordinated their operations • The water utilities were skeptical • ICPRB/JHU switched to simulation and gaming to broker agreements • Built trust and a system of cooperation that continues today • Shared Vision Planning & Computer Aided Negotiation (Hydrologics, Inc) 10:30

10. Water Supply Coordination Agreement, 1982 • Binding agreement between three utilities to cooperatively fund, manage and operate their systems for their mutual benefit • ICPRB designated as the technical and administrative lead • Creates significant efficiencies from a water resources standpoint 12:35

11. 13:57 The coordinated system can meet more demand than the total demand met by each individual system operated independently

12. ICPRB’s Role • Drought management/operations • Annual drought exercises • Iterative long-term water supply planning • Forecast demands • Use of simulation model to test resources • All based on sound principles of collaboration CO-OP was and remains quite unique in the water management field 19:57

13. CO-OP’s Performance • Forecasts of the 1960s/70s led to proposals for up to 16 new reservoirs • Only 2 were built, total of 32 bg of storage • System first tested in 1999 and again in 2002 • No shortages, minimal restrictions • Current projections show the system is adequate through 2025 and beyond 34:00

14. Regional Growth 35:50

15. Keys to Success • Efficiencies of regional cooperation • Improved operations: • New flow forecasting tools • Stream gages • Improved planning methods • Collaborative approach and ICPRB’s credibility allows for rapid technical progress

16. Shared Vision Planning • CO-OP based on early SVP/CAN and relies on intensive cooperation for continued success • But it is not SVP/CAN So what is Shared Vision Planning? 41:20

17. Basic Problem Planning is made more difficult when we allow the decision process to confuse “is” and “ought”; When we allow technical analyses of the “is” to obscure appropriate debate about the “ought”; when we allow interests and value conflicts to be shrouded by an impenetrable fog of technical analyses… -William Lord, 1984 42:30

18. Basic Premise Collaboratively built computer models can be used to support a group decision process in a way that minimizes “dueling science” controversies and promotes transparent, science-based decisions 43:50

19. SVP Overview SVP integrates: • tried-and-true planning principles • systems modeling 3) collaboration 44:20 www.sharedvisionplanning.us

20. Shared Vision Planning Step 1 — Build a Team and Identify Problems with Stakeholders, Decision-Makers and Experts. Step 2 — Develop Objectives and Metrics for Evaluation. Step 3 — Describe the Status Quo Using a Collaboratively Built Model. Step 4 — Collaboratively Formulate Alternatives Using the Model. Step 5 — Collaboratively Evaluate Alternatives and Develop Team Recommendations Using the Model. Step 6 — Implement and Institutionalize the Plan. Step 7 — Exercise and Update the Plan. 45:10

21. Themes of SVP • Decisions should be driven by objectives and performance measures • Stakeholders must trust models in order to use them for decision-making • Models must reflect issues stakeholders care about • Engaging stakeholders in the model-building process helps build that trust • There is an art and a science to effective collaboration 45:30

22. Why SVP is Relevant • Communities continue to grow, water is finite • Increased awareness and emphasis on ecological flow needs • More sophisticated stakeholders who want to be part of decision-making • Clean Water Act Permitting 47:37

23. VIDEO

24. Potomac Future • DC metro area & exurbs continue to grow • CO-OP utilities may need new resources in the coming decades • Nearby communities may want to integrate with CO-OP and/or develop their own water supply sources • There will be permitting issues, there will cost allocation issues, there will be control issues

25. Potomac Future • The Legacy of CO-OP establishes a culture of cooperation • State agencies are very supportive of CO-OP and it’s approach to water management • SVP is being tested in the North Branch Potomac, some parties may be interested in using it for other issues