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Meat Goat Markets: Seasonality, Volatility, and Availability. James “JJ” Jones Dr. Kellie Raper SE Area Ag Economist Professor Oklahoma State University. First things first. Want to thank! Livestock Marketing Information Center Prices from San Angelo, TX & New Holland, PA
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Meat Goat Markets:Seasonality,Volatility, andAvailability James “JJ” Jones Dr. Kellie Raper SE Area Ag Economist Professor Oklahoma State University
First things first • Want to thank! • Livestock Marketing Information Center • Prices from San Angelo, TX & New Holland, PA • Southern Region Risk Management Education Center • Grant funds • Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service LMIC
Where are we at • Meat goat production has exploded in the U.S. • Estimated 2.5 million head in 2009 • Research has begun. • Mostly on production issues. • Marketing meat goat research presents a challenge. • First, not much price data collected. • Some markets haven’t been reporting long. • Some markets haven’t been around long. • Second, consistency of the data collected. • Some markets report $/cwt, some $/head. • Not all weight groups represented all the time. • No standard grading system.
Talking Points • The three W’s of marketing. • What producers need to know when developing a marketing plan. • Meat goat market seasonality • Look at the seasonality of the largest U.S. goat markets and compare them to Oklahoma’s largest goat markets. • Compare that seasonality to the ethnic holiday calendar and see if there is a holiday effect. • Meat goat market volatility. • Look at the week to week volatility of the meat goat prices. • Meat goat market availability • Using a grant from the Southern Region RME, OSU is trying to determine where meat goats are being sold in Oklahoma.
Meat Goat Marketing • The three W’s of marketing. • What type of goats do you plan to sell? • Size, Age, Sex, Market or Replacement • When do you plan to sell you goats? • Seasonality of markets • Ethnic holiday calendar • Production calendar • Where to sell your goats? • Location of closest sale? • Location of best sale? • Selling directly off of the farm? W’s
Meat Goat Seasonality • But as more price data is collected more detailed seasonal price information can be determined.
Meat Goat Market Seasonality • A seasonality chart shows the difference between the yearly average price and the monthly average price in a index form. • When the monthly index is above 100 that month’s price is generally higher than the average price. • If it is below 100 then it is generally lower. • We can use seasonality charts to determine trends in the markets.
San Angelo, TX, New Holland, PA & Perkins, OK Easter Holiday
San Angelo, TX, New Holland, PA & Perkins, OK Muslim Holidays
San Angelo, TX, New Holland, PA & Perkins, OK Muslim Holidays
Market Volatility • Beside seasonal price patterns the market is subject to unpredictable week to week price volatility. • Markets can be affected by a myriad of happenings: • Good/Bad market news • Good/Bad weather • Unusual large/small number of animals available for sale. • Certain buyers don’t show up or a new buyer does show up.
Market Availability • Where to sell has been a problem for many producers. • Not every livestock market sells goats. • Not every goat sale is a viable market. • Through a grant from the Southern Region Risk Management Education Center, OSU is conducting a series of surveys to determine meat goat markets in Oklahoma and surrounding states. • Locations • Days of the week and times • Types of goats sold • Average number of buyers • Average number of goats sold
Existing Goat Markets in Oklahoma(Preliminary) USDA Reported Sales
Summary • There are seasonal price patterns for meat goats. • These are different for the type of goat being sold and region of the country. • Producers need to be aware of these differences. • Challenges will persist until some uniformity in price reporting comes about. • Prices seem to be more volatile in the spring than in the fall of the year. • There is limited knowledge about goat market availability. • Work needs to continue • Other marketing opportunities • Cooperatives, Producer organizations, etc.