Meat Goat Markets: Seasonality, Volatility, and Availability

1. Meat Goat Markets:Seasonality,Volatility, andAvailability James “JJ” Jones Dr. Kellie Raper SE Area Ag Economist Professor Oklahoma State University

2. First things first • Want to thank! • Livestock Marketing Information Center • Prices from San Angelo, TX & New Holland, PA • Southern Region Risk Management Education Center • Grant funds • Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service LMIC

3. Where are we at • Meat goat production has exploded in the U.S. • Estimated 2.5 million head in 2009 • Research has begun. • Mostly on production issues. • Marketing meat goat research presents a challenge. • First, not much price data collected. • Some markets haven’t been reporting long. • Some markets haven’t been around long. • Second, consistency of the data collected. • Some markets report $/cwt, some $/head. • Not all weight groups represented all the time. • No standard grading system.

4. Talking Points • The three W’s of marketing. • What producers need to know when developing a marketing plan. • Meat goat market seasonality • Look at the seasonality of the largest U.S. goat markets and compare them to Oklahoma’s largest goat markets. • Compare that seasonality to the ethnic holiday calendar and see if there is a holiday effect. • Meat goat market volatility. • Look at the week to week volatility of the meat goat prices. • Meat goat market availability • Using a grant from the Southern Region RME, OSU is trying to determine where meat goats are being sold in Oklahoma.

5. Meat Goat Marketing • The three W’s of marketing. • What type of goats do you plan to sell? • Size, Age, Sex, Market or Replacement • When do you plan to sell you goats? • Seasonality of markets • Ethnic holiday calendar • Production calendar • Where to sell your goats? • Location of closest sale? • Location of best sale? • Selling directly off of the farm? W’s

6. Meat Goat Seasonality • But as more price data is collected more detailed seasonal price information can be determined.

7. Meat Goat Market Seasonality • A seasonality chart shows the difference between the yearly average price and the monthly average price in a index form. • When the monthly index is above 100 that month’s price is generally higher than the average price. • If it is below 100 then it is generally lower. • We can use seasonality charts to determine trends in the markets.

8. San Angelo, Texas

9. New Holland, Pennsylvania

10. Perkins, Oklahoma

11. San Angelo, TX, New Holland, PA & Perkins, OK Easter Holiday

12. San Angelo, TX, New Holland, PA & Perkins, OK Muslim Holidays

13. San Angelo, TX, New Holland, PA & Perkins, OK Muslim Holidays

14. Market Volatility • Beside seasonal price patterns the market is subject to unpredictable week to week price volatility. • Markets can be affected by a myriad of happenings: • Good/Bad market news • Good/Bad weather • Unusual large/small number of animals available for sale. • Certain buyers don’t show up or a new buyer does show up.

15. San Angelo Market Volatility

16. San Angelo Market Volatility

17. Market Availability • Where to sell has been a problem for many producers. • Not every livestock market sells goats. • Not every goat sale is a viable market. • Through a grant from the Southern Region Risk Management Education Center, OSU is conducting a series of surveys to determine meat goat markets in Oklahoma and surrounding states. • Locations • Days of the week and times • Types of goats sold • Average number of buyers • Average number of goats sold

18. Existing Goat Markets in Oklahoma(Preliminary)    USDA Reported Sales

19. Summary • There are seasonal price patterns for meat goats. • These are different for the type of goat being sold and region of the country. • Producers need to be aware of these differences. • Challenges will persist until some uniformity in price reporting comes about. • Prices seem to be more volatile in the spring than in the fall of the year. • There is limited knowledge about goat market availability. • Work needs to continue • Other marketing opportunities • Cooperatives, Producer organizations, etc.

20. Questions