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Observed and simulated climate sensitivity of large-scale forest productivity

NACP meeting 2013. Tree-rings and vegetation models. Observed and simulated climate sensitivity of large-scale forest productivity. Flurin Babst 1,3 , Ben Poulter 1,2 , Valerie Trouet 3 , Kun Tan 2 , Burkhard Neuwirth 4 ,

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Observed and simulated climate sensitivity of large-scale forest productivity

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  1. NACP meeting2013 Tree-rings and vegetationmodels Observed and simulatedclimatesensitivityof large-scaleforestproductivity • Flurin Babst1,3, Ben Poulter1,2, Valerie Trouet3, KunTan2, Burkhard Neuwirth4, • Rob Wilson5, Marco Carrer6, Michael Grabner7, Willy Tegel8, Tom Levanic9, • Momchil Panayotov10, Carlo Urbinati11, Olivier Bouriaud12, Philippe Ciais2, David Frank1 • 1Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Switzerland • 2LSCE CNRS, France • 3Laboratory of Tree-ring Research, University of Arizona, USA • 4DeLaWi TreeRingAnalyses, Windeck, Germany • 5School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, UK • 6Forest Ecology Research Unit, University of Padova, Italy • 7Universität für Bodenkultur Vienna, Austria • 8University of Freiburg, Germany • 9SlovenianForestry Institute Ljubljana, Slovenia • 10University of Forestry Sofia, Bulgaria • 11UniversitaPolitechnica delle MarcheAncona, Italy • 12Forest Research and Management ICAS, Romania

  2. Motivation Forestsworldwidecurrentlyassimilateapproximately 25% of theanthropogenic fossil fuelemissions(Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience).  Understandingtheclimaticdrivers of forest growth at a large scale.  Empiricalobservations? Nemani et al. 2003, Science Beer et al. 2010, Science

  3. Tree-ringnetwork Tree-ringdatacanhelp to: Assesstheclimateresponse of forests at large scales. Evaluatetheclimatesensitivity of dynamic global vegetationmodels ~ 1000 sites 36 species Common period: 1920-1970

  4. Monthlyclimateresponse Correlationsbetween radial growth and monthlytemperature monthlyprecipitation fromprevious April to current September Monthlyclimatedata: CRU 3.0, 1901-2006 (Mitchell & Jones, 2005)  Downscaled to 1 x 1 km resolution Pinuscembra: • Climatecorrelationfunctionsfor all sites • Basis forfurtheranalyses precipitation temperature

  5. Climatesignals Self-organizingmaps (SOMs) to dividethenetworkintoclusters of siteswithsimilarclimateresponses. SOM grid: T signal P signal M signal Babst et al. 2013, GEB

  6. Latitude / altitude  Limitingfactorsfortree growth canbeestimated as a function of latitude and elevation (temperature)

  7. Tree-rings vs. DGVMs T P • Novelapplication of tree-ringdata: • Large-scalevalidation of vegetationmodels Babst et al. 2013, GEB

  8. Seasonality Tan et al. in review, ERL temperateconifers temperatebroadleaf borealconifers T borealconifers P tree-rings % siteswithsign. pos. correlations temperateconifers model

  9. Conclusions I Nemani et al. 2003, Science Beer et al. 2010, Science Babst et al. 2013, GEB

  10. Conclusions II • DGVMsshow a strongerdroughtsensitivitythantree-rings. • Seasonality in climateresponse of DGVMsdiffersstronglyfromobservations. • Lag-effectsare not considered in simulations. • Tree-ringnetworkdoes not provide absolute productivity. Outlook: • DGVMs: • - Improveseasonality and includecarry-overeffects • Tree-rings: • Worktowards absolute biomassincrement • Combinationswithotherin-situmeasurements (e.g. eddy-fluxes)

  11. Thankyou!

  12. Carry-overeffects All temperature and precipitationlimitedsites Climateconditions (bootstrapped) leading to contemporaneousorlagged growth extremes. Babst et al. 2012, ERL

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